Keep an eye on these two major events in the month of september
1) FOMC meeting on 15-16th September, probability of rate hike
2) Voting on Clarity Act
๐ FRIDAY WILL DECIDE THE NEXT $BTC MOVE.
In 3 days, Kevin Warsh speaks at 10:00 AM ET:
DOVISH: Break $80K and run
HAWKISH: Dump back to $72K
NEUTRAL: More chop
Zooming out,
the 365d rolling vwap is an HTF pivot for BTC.
last time BTC traded above the 365d rolling vwap was November of 2025 (currently at ~82.4).
DON'T FOMO INTO BITCOIN AT $77,190. THE STOCH RSI JUST HIT OVERBOUGHT.
Every previous fill in 2025 and 2026 that landed on an overbought stoch was followed by a pullback within days.
Wait for the retest of $73,000. That is where the entry is.
Pretty textbook here... $BTC
If price shows weakness in range's deviation, it means we likely are going back to the 0.5 range zone
So I'd say 1-2 weeks and we're back to ~70K
We can also see our new 60K-80K range formation to chop between for next couple of months here
Friendly reminder:
In both 2019 and 2022, Bitcoin completely reversed its summer relief rally and made new lows in Q4.
A final flush is STILL possible.
Interesting that $BTC just formed a weekly death cross again
Last time it showed up, we formed 2022 macro bottom, but only after one final capitulation flush
Don't say anything, but we can go lower
Same summer pump we saw right before 2022 final dump... $BTC
Back then, it pumped ~40% just before hitting new lows
Wondering if we repeat it this time
What if $58k was the Bear Market bottom?
Well, then it was the first Bear Market in history when $BTC didn't reach the CVDD ($49k) ๐ค
Damn, $BTC didn't even touch the Realized price ($52.7k) this time!
Previously, $BTC spent quite a some time below it during bear markets ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Something's off ๐
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I HAVE NOT BOUGHT MY #BITCOIN BAG YET
Can I be wrong this time waiting for lower prices below $40k?
Yes!! I can
Am I going to follow my chart & my macro analyses and not FOMO?
Yes! I will
August is historically a weak month, and historically has closed red
I still believe $BTC IS PUMPING to make you believe bottom is in! Summer Relief Pump always get many stuck in during the bear market
โ๏ธNow tell me!
Do you think the bull market has already began again after 9/10 months of bear market? ๐๐ผ
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