If you're sad that you still haven't made it in crypto yet, read this carefully ๐
Donald Trump made his first MILLION from crypto at almost 80 years old.
Don't give up.
Lots of buzz recently on compute capital markets. But what might these markets actually look like? A few thoughts on its market structure from first principles:
> First, almost everyone agrees that compute has a nonfungibility quality. It behaves closer to electricity (temporal, nonfungible) than corn, oil, and gold.
> This nonfungibility creates several downstream corollaries:
(1) Reservations/capacity forwards are almost always bilateral OTC trades on particular SKUs and params (I want X hours of H200s in us-east-1 running Y model at 12pm on 8/1/2026)
(2) There is no transparent "one-size-fits-all" pricing model for "generic H200s" like there is for corn/oil/gold, hence no proper futures market used for hedging
(3) Most of the teams building in the space (eg. Silicon Data, Ornn, Compute Desk) are focusing on "standardization" indices/benchmarks, in preparation to create a liquid futures market.
> The short-side of compute markets fundamentally comes from neoclouds (Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda) and indepedent data centers (people with GPUs), while the long-side of compute markets comes from inference dev platforms (Fireworks, Modal, Baseten) and the agentic applayer (Cursor, Perplexity, Suno, Rime) that do not run datacenter fleets
> But these principals will never directly trade on general compute exchanges (eg. an H200 basket) because they require specific SKUs. Instead, they'll make their reservations/capacity forwards for specific SKUs with OTC dealers.
> These dealers in turn can "hedge" particular SKUs with exposure to the underlying generalized basket exchanges. So the folks actually using compute futures exchanges are going to be MMs/OTC desks/compute dealers on both sides. This creates an endgame market structure like below:
BREAKING: ๐บ๐ธ SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce: โIโm optimistic the CLARITY Act will pass this summer. I expect that weโll see it pass soon.โ ๐
BREAKING: ๐บ๐ธPRESIDENT TRUMP:
โLAST YEAR, I PROMISED TO MAKE AMERICA THE BITCOIN SUPERPOWER OF THE WORLD AND THE CRYPTO CAPITAL OF THE PLANET.โ
โWEโRE TAKING HISTORIC ACTION TO DELIVER ON THAT PROMISE.โ
THE BIGGEST MOVE HASNโT STARTED YET.
BREAKING: ๐บ๐ธ WHITE HOUSE REPORTER JUST SAID THERE IS A RENEWED SENSE OF URGENCY TO PASS THE #BITCOIN CLARITY ACT
SENATORS ARE RACING TO STRIKE A DEAL WITHIN WEEKS
IT'S TIME TO PASS CLARITY ๐๐