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Some thoughts on the $TRUMP situation:
- Because of the Trump launch, which just hit 70B FDV, it siphoned away all the liquidity from existing alts and into TRUMP, SOL and some others. This is simply because people sell their coins to buy TRUMP. There's simply not enough liquidity in such a short time span and especially during a weekend.
- Only thing standing strong is $BTC, which is because it is large and also because holders like ETFs etc are not the ones that are selling coins into TRUMP. Its holder base is more boomer like and generally holds stronger without chasing a new coin or narrative like this.
- ETH is mixed. It also has an ETF but obviously people see this Trump coin on Solana as a loss for ETH and a win for SOL. I do see a case where they might go multichain with the coin and add it to something like the ETH & Base network in the future. Trump's DeFi project is on ETH as well after all. That would spur renewed interest in these chains and would make for a good case of a market wide alt season I think. We'll see.
- Although the coins might be hurting short term. It was bound to happen with a launch like this. There just isn't enough liquidity in such a short time span. But on the other hand, the new inflow of liquidity will be large I think. I don't see a world where the media isn't absolutely filled with good/bad news about this coin for the next few weeks, which sparks renewed interest in the crypto market by a lot of participants.
- The fact this coin was created, makes it much more likely that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is created and that they will buy new bitcoin (and maybe other coins?) as well. That just isn't such a crazy thing to imagine anymore after this. If we'd go by the assumption that Trump and his team would be profit maximalising, it would make sense from a personal standpoint as well.
- Something else this thing creates, is it makes people wonder what is possible again. In 2021 we had coins in the 100s of billions of FDVs and it was normal for coins to trade at insane amounts. When the sky is the limit, it builds a good base for crazy parabolic runs on coins which people think weren't possible initially.
- At some point when the market is toppish and the unlocks start coming in, this thing will crash down and make the entire situation a big mess. I won't be trading it anytime soon personally.
To conclude: I see a lot of pessimism and negativity because people are obviously mad about the ethics and the fact that their coins are down due to this. All I want to say is yes, those can both be right, depending on your stance. But also give it some more time. I think the market might enjoy this more than you think in the weeks to come. Especially when something happens where they bring the Trump coin to several chains (including ETH) which would make the entire market go crazy in my opinion. What this does for the market years out is another question, but not something you should worry about right now.
If I would summarize the Trump coin situation for the rest of the market:
Short term (now) = Bad
Mid term = Good
Long term = Bad
Good luck out there!
2021 MAY $3,160
2021 AUG $3,160
2022 JAN $3,160
2022 MAR $3,160
2022 APR $3,160
2024 MAR $3,160
2024 MAY $3,160
2024 JUL $3,160
2024 NOV $3,160
2025 JAN $3,160
$ETH is a stablecoin.
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