Harri Kojonen, CFA

also @harrikojonen_FI Asset Allocation | Derivatives | Multi-Strategy Investing | CFA

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@mikapleskinen Soukka ”ruuhka-aikaan” maanantaina 07:52 😀

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Investors who owned negative-yielding bonds 12 months ago have lost about $1.7 trillion on a total-return basis,or 12.5%.That includes $295 billion of wealth lost by holding bunds, $260 billion from French government debt and more than $500 billion lost on lending to Japan(Bberg)

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Hmmmm....is Hang Seng trying to break out of the descending trend channel which was started back in June last year? Valuations are cheap, no one likes EM, but is there willingness to commit capital in uncertainty?
#equities

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@GKilpepe64 Looking at the collated and condensed views that Bloomberg News has gathered from the biggest asset managers and banks around the world; basicly none of them see EM-stocks performing this year, at least not the H1

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@LippoSuominen Ei kai nyt ihan kaikkialla. Asukkaita maapallolla kyllä riittää ja kuten kuvan arvaus osoittaa koko ajan enemmän. Kysymys lienee enemmän kasvun rajoista ja talouden rakenteen muuttumisesta teollistuneissa maissa, työtä ei riitä enää kaikille.

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@LippoSuominen Ehkä myös viimeiset dollarit tukishekeistä käytetty ja siten myös liittyminen takaisin aktiivisten työnhakijoiden joukkoon>työvoiman saatavuus paranee>palkkapaineisiin rauhaa>inflazyyniä alas

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@ValtteriAhti Normalisoitumisprosessi on käynnissä, ball park on tupannnut aiemmin olemaan noilla hörneillä. Infl swapeissa taitaa myös kärkipään tiedossa oleva korkea juokseva inflaatio nostattaa lukua.Kuluttajat tarvitsevat lisää tuloja pysyvään buustiin, mitenhän se vaan Euroopassa onnistuu

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

EUR 10/30 -swap curve steepness hasn't yet reached the level where it was pre-covid, +10ish bps steepness from current levels is needed. 50% retracement of the range where this curve has traded last 10 years stands at around 38 bps #rates #trading

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Irrelevant in the new world, some say....
Still, quite fascinating graph of the barely changed world equities -earnings per share- since 2008 (by BCA Research)
#equities

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

EMU- govt spreads are widening vs German govies. France/Germany -spread widest since august-20. No obvious reason except very low free float of German bonds. There simply aren't natural sellers ie cash rates pressure to BTPS,FRTR, SPGB and so-on. Taper PEPP?
#investments #bonds

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Funnily enough,the UST 10yr implied put vols are now even lower than those of German Bunds.🤔UST supply picture/better chances of infl/sooner tapering one would expect higher relative implieds in the US Treasury Market (not to forget low free float in Bunds)
#investments #bonds

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

When all was pointing to a weaker USD, it naturally went a lot stronger, not that uncommon feature of the unpredictable FX-markets. Positioning is now much cleaner. Reckless fiscal policy, rates that already ran up, and mammoth deficit in trade balance. Chance for USD to ↘️?

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Euro Stoxx50 realized volatility has returned to a normal level preceding covid. Pretty remarkable considering the uncertainty still prevailing. Also the put implieds at the similar levels we got used to. Too much too fast perhaps?
#equities #osakkeet

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Value stocks have had exceptionally good relative performance in Asia too, best quarter since the tech bubble. Asia & US,this is as much a 👍 Value stock-story, as it is 👎 Growth stock -story, in 🇪🇺value has not done as good,bcause of no rottening Growth-leg
#equities #osakkeet

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Move on, nothing to see here. XOver-credit default swap has been trading in a tight range 3mths now.The⬆️in long end of the rates curve hasn't affected the support for credit. Yields are still stupidly low, 5-yr EUR swap rate is up 18 bps from lows but still at -0.32%
#investment

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Impressive Euro Stoxx Banks. Last 17 days just one black candle. October strech was 26 with one ◼️candle, and yet the indx not even near the levels it dropped from when Covid stroke. One of the few things that haven’t normalized. Yet. #equities #osakkeet

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

@JarkkoSoikkeli Odotukset US-korkojen normalisoitumisesta ovat kaukana ainakin Fed Funds-futuureiden indikoimaa tulevaa 5 vuoden tasoa tarkasteltaessa.Pitkät korot toivottavasti pysyvät aisoissa YCC&QE-uhittelulla ja sticky ohjauskoroilla huolimatta massiivisesta bonditarjonnasta
#sijoittaminen

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

US Treasury’s cash balance stays at wildly elevated level. The money will undoubtedly be spent, but could well support treasury bond prices in the Q1 in the form of lower borrowing needs and thus way lower issuance vs the feared mountain of new debt
#bonds #sijoittaminen

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

Bloomberg explains the high VIX-level as a symptom of increased single stock impl vol rather than anything systematic. Correlation between S&P members is still low. Makes sense with the current appetite for gamma by price/vol insensitive option buyers
#equities #osakkeet

[Harri Kojonen, CFA @harrikojonen]

This year the best simple allocation strategy in US-equities has been to own stocks that trade at a price under 2$ per stock. Which ETF-provider will the first to offer ETF that only invests in under 2$ stocks? 😄
#osakkeet #equities