Harver Capital

Evidence Over Emotion.
Investment Management based on data not narrative.

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

🎥 🎥 Our Monday Markets Espresso
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Edinburgh Edition
Big rally in equities and bonds last week on promising US data, however put/call ratio at lows (bearish) weak China data continues #markets #investing #investmentmanagement #wealthmanagement #marketdata #inflation

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/BytVjrzXkL

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

@TheCinesthetic Millers Crossing, great film very few people have seen…

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

@TheStalwart A start. You got a start.

[Benny Johnson @bennyjohnson]

This is the most satisfying video on the internet right now.

Rekt 🔥

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

🎥 🎥 Our Monday Markets Espresso
🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 Côte d’Azur Edition

Euro Area Flash growth and inflation estimates. US ISM manufacturing data may turn less negative this week, BoE rate decision Thursday expected to raise rates by 0.25%
#markets #investing #investmentmanagement

[🔴 Ipek Ozkardeskaya @IpekOzkardeskay]

Our quarterly outlook with @harvercapital’s @glenncoxon is out !
👇🏻👇🏻
https://t.co/vbrJ25qmbQ

#FX #energy #indices #trading
@Swissquote

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

🎥 🎥 Our Monday Markets Espresso
The Big Picture is mixed: Equities remain in an uptrend (good news) bond yields drift higher (not such good news).
Light week on volumes due to #4thofjuly.

#markets #investing #investmentmanagement #wealthmanagement #marketdata

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

🎥 🎥 Our Monday Markets Espresso

#markets #investing #investmentmanagement #wealthmanagement #marketdata

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

For context, I am pro-science (it is sad to say that I have to declare this upfront) and our family foundation, the @PershingSqFdn, is a major funder ( ~$100m to date with more to come) of scientific research, but something has gone really wrong with science and our country when anyone who challenges currently accepted science is branded a conspiracy theorist and is censored by major media companies.

The scientific method is about constantly challenging our assumptions. It is about skepticism and deep research to understand and explain new data that are inconsistent with initial observations or conclusions.

Science is an unending search for the truth, and this ongoing search is critical, as what was once deemed to be settled science is often revised or reversed with the passage of time. For example, consider how the science of human nutrition has changed dramatically over time, or hypotheses about the causes for Alzheimer’s. And it wasn’t that long ago that doctors were quoted in ads recommending cigarettes as good for your health.

We should value those critics who challenge the status quo and continue to ask the hard questions. It is particularly important to do so when the economics of the current scientific understanding provide rewards to industry that are in the hundreds of billions of dollars, with the associated unavoidable perverse incentives.

We should seek to answer the concerns of those who challenge the current scientific wisdom. We should not simply dismiss them as conspiracy theorists. Doing so impedes the progress of scientific knowledge, and may cause us to miss opportunities to correct mistakes that continue to cause harm.

@RobertKennedyJr and others have raised important questions about the safety of some vaccines and have sought explanations for the dramatic increases in the incidence of childhood allergies, autism, and other health issues. These are good questions that have not been adequately answered. And I say this from the perspective of someone who is fully vaccinated along with my kids.

RFK may be right or wrong in his theories. That said, his concerns are ones shared by millions of parents and others. Rather than censor RFK and the skeptics, shouldn’t we instead seek to understand the causes for the massive increase in autism and allergic diseases in our children over the last 30 or so years? If vaccines are not the cause for increased autism and other allergenic conditions, then what is the cause or causes?

I think we would all greatly benefit by dropping the words ‘conspiracy theory’ from our lexicon and opening our minds to the possibility of improbable alternative explanations. When one hears something labeled a conspiracy theory, the natural reaction is to dismiss the theory. That is not a good way to get the truth. Conspiracy theories are actually just theories that are labeled as such to discourage further investigation.

I have had my own serious issues with @TuckerCarlson over the years and disagree with him on many subjects, but I have to say he gets its right in this evening’s episode which is worth a watch.

I recommend the Tucker segment at the risk of discrediting everything I have said above for certain audiences. That said, I am a strong believer in seeking the truth from a wide spectrum of observers and media participants.

I encourage you to give this approach a try. When even your worst enemy has an insight you agree with, I have often found it has a higher probability of being true. I think you will find this approach will make it easier to get closer to the truth in an uncertain world.

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

🎥 🎥 Our Monday Markets Espresso
Bank of a England rate rise on the cards and US PMIs (survey data on business conditions in services and manufacturing) later in the week.

#markets #investing #investmentmanagement #wealthmanagement #marketdata

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

"Success in investing doesn't correlate with IQ... what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."

- Warren Buffett

#wealthmanagement #markets #patienceiskey #success #investingtips

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

Monday Markets Espresso, a quick dive into what’s moving financial markets in the week ahead #investing #wealth #wealthmanagement #markets

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E (blue) has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS (orange) are still down

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

$ZM $20bn market cap with no growth (+3%) 😒, yet barely break-even as cost base +33%! Non-enterprise rev collapsing -8%! Yet SBC +35% on last year 😮‍💨 ! How can they NOT grow revenue despite spending $423m (38% of revenue!) on sales & marketing? WTF? Money laundering? 🧼 🚿

[🔴 Ipek Ozkardeskaya @IpekOzkardeskay]

Our latest discussion about markets with @glenncoxon of @harvercapital is finally on Youtube!

Check it out - there are some good tips 😎
👇👇
https://t.co/8MP88xeUCr

#equities #bonds #FX #XAU #energy #trading #investing #ideas
@Swissquote

[Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq]

Adjusted EBITDA vs EBITDA

H/t: Vincent Gala, Schroders

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

"The biggest generator of long-term results is learning to do things when you don’t feel like doing them."

A Tiny Thought in @farnamstreet Brain food.

https://t.co/PJ9ZlSdx0G

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

Great thread

[Brett Adcock @adcock_brett]

Cheat codes I know at 36 I wish I knew at 20:

[Harver Capital @harvercapital]

@gfc4 Commodity traders