📚 Crypto for critical thinkers and coffee drinkers. Cartoon Maximalist. #COYS ⚠️ Views are my own, not representative of any other entity, nor financial advice
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Hi friends, I’ve not been in a place where I can make content that meets my quality standards on a consistent basis. Whatever energy I have I am spending on my family first and foremost. I will return when I can. I don’t leave in the bear and return in the bull, and have no plans to force a comeback just to capitalize on a bull market. I’ve only made content the past 7 years out of pure enjoyment of doing it, so it hurts me to not be able to do it right now. Until my return to Crypto Over Coffee, I leave you with a few thoughts:
1. Take profits when you have them. Don’t get sucked into the “it may go up more” mentality. Missing a run up hurts, but not as much as riding the roller coaster down to a bear.
2. Don’t become influencers' exit liquidity. If you see ‘consensus’ amongst influencers that you should buy some 'guaranteed winner' and outrageous PnL screenshots, you are likely exit liquidity. The rise of AI agents and such only make the anon influencer game harder to read with generated content everywhere. Be vigilant.
3. The macro environment is very different (in both good and bad ways) than it was in 2021. Expect previous bull run patterns to be invalidated. Confirmation bias is a killer, be mindful of being tricked into seeing what you want to see.
4. Avoid over reliance on X (twitter) or other social media for research. The algo is going to feed you a skewed view by nature.
5. Be wary of calls to lock up your assets in high-yielding DeFi / CeFi products that will inevitably go bust when the music stops (a la Celsius, Terra/Anchor).
6. Get your opsec in order, don't be sloppy or lazy. Use hardware, don't blindly sign transactions, don't open emails or messages from unknowns. Don't wait to get drained before you figure this out.
Have fun. Be nice to each other. Be safe. Build generational wealth.
H
@jpegcrew I was gonna say “with size” to differentiate DCA vs. buying lump sum at a target price, but that’s a meme, bc I’m not gonna say how much I’m buying lol
@Dracks0n I’m a buyer all the time thru DCA - but if we hit certain levels I will go in with more size to accumulate where I think there is even more upside
Don’t care if it goes down more after because I have a long time horizon
@musharrafff@frenpetonbase The exact calculation for probability of winning is published in the docs:
Attacker AP / (Attacker AP + Defender DP)
Higher the delta between your attack and defender’s defense, more likely you are to win. “Pick your battles wisely”
The speed of the capitulation on here is bull-ISH. Every time I’ve seen the floor fall out of a bull market into a bear, almost everyone was unanimously bullish and in denial
If you’re not overextended and you’re playing with a plan, you’re not sweating this price action