Top Tweets for #AMS14Fire
Yesterday's forecast was a success and we will continue to learn as we serve our partners at @DCNRnews & @Allegheny_NF.
If you're interested in learning more about these dewpoint bombs, check out my ~10 min presentation from #AMS14Fire: https://t.co/pPrRKZWAy0
#PAwx
On the Blog: At the Yarnell Hill Fire in 2013, rapidly shifting winds killed 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots firefighters trapped in a canyon. At #AMS14Fire, Micheal Kaplan @DRIScience presented models that help explain the "dramatic, unexpected" wind shifts: https://t.co/JUP1nCeIZ8
AMS hopes everyone who attended had a great time at the 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference last week! Recordings are now up online and available to all attendees🔁
View the recordings here: https://t.co/stvMt5Xm4n
#AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! If you don't get anything else from this Tweet Thread, at least remember these two things from @smokey_bear and me:
1. Only YOU can prevent wildfires 🔥
2. Hold on to your butts 🚬
(19/19)
#AMS14Fire #PAwx #HoldOnToYourButts🚬
Here's a closer look at the 1-Pager Quick Guide for T/Td/RH Forecasting.
You can view/download it here:
https://t.co/dTso6qoH70
(17/19)
#AMS14Fire #PAwx
Soundings are the most accurate way to diagnose Td Bomb potential, but perusing a bunch of soundings is inefficient.
Turns out, @NWSSPC mesoanalysis parameters work well!
🌡Inversion strength = Low-level Lapse Rate
🌵Dry air above BL = LCL-LFC Mean RH
(9/19)
#AMS14Fire #PAwx
Let's talk about how to forecast these (hint: we can!).
Ingredients for Td Bombs are:
🌡Weak or no inversion
🌵Very dry air just above the boundary layer
Soundings hold the 🔑 to our forecast problem!
(6/19)
#AMS14Fire #PAwx
Let's first diagnose the problem:
🌵💣 There are certain days when the dew point temperature (Td) plummets well below expectation: "Dew Point Bombs"
Unsurprisingly, human forecasts and computer models exhibit similar biases. 👇
(3/19)
#AMS14Fire #PAwx
What if I told you that there is a weather variable for which computer models regularly produce forecast errors of 50% or more? Like, divide the forecast by 2.
Come along as I recap my #AMS14Fire talk about a common but lesser-known Target of Opportunity!🧵
(1/19)
#PAwx
That's a wrap on the 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference 🔚
Thank you to all who attended and presented! We hope you were able to connect with your peers and gain knowledge. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Last day of 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference! We hope you enjoyed the conference and learned a lot throughout the week. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Day 3 from the 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference!
We've had so much fun that the week has flown by. See you all tomorrow for the last day! #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
The last in-person poster session for the 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference is happening now! Don't miss the last chance to look at more all the posters. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Thank you to everyone who attended the 14Fire Luncheon! It was great hearing from Jack McGowan-Stinski where he shared critical information needed the day of a prescribed fire. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
The @forestservice is keeping the attendees energized by sponsoring a coffee break this week at the AMS 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology/14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium/Sixth Conference on Biogeosciences. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Ready for another great day of 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference! Still time to join us virtually and see some great presentations. Check out the online program: https://t.co/stvMt5Xm4n #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Great presentation from former @NWS_MountHolly & current @forestservice meteorologist @jeobrien_wx today at #AMS14Fire! Nice overview of a new tool for assessing wildfire risk in SoCal - noted a climatological overestimate of fire risk in spring/fall and underestimate in summer.
Thank you to everyone who came out for the game night networking event! Hope everyone had a great time meeting each other in person. Can't wait for another fantastic day of sessions tomorrow. #AMS35AgForest #AMS14Fire #AMS6BioGeo
Day 2 from the 35AgForest/14Fire/6BioGeo Conference! An amazing day of presentations and great to see all the posters for #AMS14Fire.
If you are attending in person, don't miss the chance to join us tonight for a networking game night at 6pm CT!
#AMS6BioGeo #AMS35AgForest
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