Top Tweets for #BiotechPrometheus
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should be aware of "p-hacking" strategies used in data analysis: For biotech, I have come across #s 3, 6, 8-11 too often
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Since most biotechs aren't profitable they often use warrants (including pre-funded) to raise capital while mitigating short term dilution
But what is a warrant and what are their implications?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A warrant is a security that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (typically) stock at a certain price
Conceptually similar to an option, they both have a strike price and expiry date, but with a few differences (not exhaustive)
Many recent biotech follow-ons issue common equity along with "pre-funded" warrants. Why?
Investors have ownership concentration limits and a warrant isn't direct ownership before its exercised
But pre-funding means the company still gets the cash
Either way the warrants are still dilutive and investors should calculate their impact
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A reason to love #biotech: a company approaching the end (low stock price; near "death") can generate >20x return in a few, or even 1 year!
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors can benefit from evaluating a drug the same way pharma does
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Sometimes a #reversemerger or #SPAC can result in a high value (>$1B) #biotech buyout. Both ways enable private companies to go public without an #IPO
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A key factor in understanding how a biotech drug is reimbursed is assessing where it sits on the formulary (its position)
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
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