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Unfortunately, Bitcoin never reached that large Fair Value Gap on the daily timeframe. Even though it technically hasn’t been invalidated yet, I wouldn’t expect a clear, sharp rejection right from the $67.5k level anymore if we get there again.
At this point, I wouldn’t make assumptions about Bitcoin’s next moves. It’s better to wait and observe its reaction at any significant levels, whether resistance or support.
What’s important to mention is that the corrective move was followed by a volume spike, which means some spot sell-off took place. That aligns well with the ETF outflows we saw yesterday.
But generally speaking, the local trend is still upward.
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On the 4H timeframe, bitcoin:native is forming a fairly bullish structure. We got a move up to $65.9k, as I suggested yesterday, but we didn’t see a sharp rejection right away. The price is now consolidating above the 100 MA and above the low of the previous weekly candle. As long as Bitcoin can hold this level, we should expect further upside continuation.
We also got a volume spike, although we should take into consideration that it was news-driven (the peace deal with Iran), so the volume will probably fade again.
As I mentioned in my previous post, I opened a short position, which is around break-even right now, so I’ll keep an eye on volume and price action to decide whether I want to close it now or wait for the next move.
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bitcoin:native moved exactly along my projected line until the most recent 4H candle. This could be just a brief correction before continuation, or a pullback to the support level around $63.9k.
Even though the price action looks very promising, we need to keep an eye on volume, which has been gradually decreasing. All the moves we’re seeing right now are happening in a low-liquidity environment. It’s a very fragile structure that could break once we hit a meaningful resistance level, such as $65k or higher.
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bitcoin:native is trying very hard to break through the resistance level. Even after a fake breakout, we haven't seen any sharp moves down. It still might move to the lower boundary of the formation to find fuel for an impulse move up, but I wouldn't be surprised if we break out from current levels without any correction.
While the whole setup looks quite bullish, it is definitely not the kind of setup that can send Bitcoin significantly higher. The next major resistance will be at the $65k–$66k level, from which we could see a correction back to the $63k region.
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bitcoin:native is trying really hard to break out of the consolidation. The current 1H structure is a textbook bull flag, but considering it’s forming right below an important local resistance level, the chances of invalidation are much higher.
Considering today’s $SPCX IPO, I would wait for the resolution before looking for a trade entry.
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Bitcoin might be playing out the same fractal on the 4H timeframe that we just saw on the 1D timeframe during the rally to $82k. Of course, it's too early to talk about such a structure, and it's obviously not something to trade. But this might be what Bitcoin wants to do.
However, with the SpaceX IPO tomorrow, we may see enough volatility to break the 4H fractal.
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On the 4H timeframe, we’re currently forming what looks like a higher low, which is reasonably bullish. However, when we look at the 1D timeframe, it already appears more like a price consolidation before a continuation to the downside.
The most bearish scenario is if the week eventually closes below the 200 MA (~$62k), and at the moment, that seems to be the most likely outcome.
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On the 1H timeframe, Bitcoin managed to break through the MA 100 and use the MA 50 as support twice. The next resistance is at the MA 200 (around $65k at the moment). The bullish scenario is if it can break through it and move to the $67k–$68k range.
Yet my base case is that we’ll go down once again to retest $59k–$60k at least, and then try again.
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📉🔄 #BitcoinMarketUpdate 🔄📈
Analyst Vetle Lunde suggests a potential dip before a rebound, emphasizing that Bitcoin ETFs have "definitely front-run" the market. The extent of this front-running depends on capital inflows upon product launch. Lunde notes the crucial factor is the influx of new capital, aiming for at least 50,000 BTC (approx. $2.3 billion) in January.
🔍 Lunde's Insights:
- ETFs may have run ahead but the degree depends on post-launch fund flows.
- Despite potential outflows from "lesser" products like futures-based ETFs, the crucial aspect is the influx of new funds.
💰 Funding Expectations:
- Anticipates Bitcoin's current price surge to peak around the ETF decision due to substantial profit-taking from short-term traders and unsustainable spread differentials.
📅 ETF Decision Impact:
- Short-term profit-taking expected, driven by current market dynamics.
- Long-term outlook positive, with potential capital inflow into ETFs and the supply shock from the Bitcoin halving event in April.
🚀 Analyst's Hope:
- Optimistic about a favorable year with the potential flow of funds into ETFs and the impact of the Bitcoin halving event.
📊 Current Bitcoin Price: $45,199
🔮 Conclusion:
Market watchers brace for potential short-term market fluctuations ahead of the ETF decision, with Lunde highlighting the importance of sustained capital inflows and long-term positive indicators. Stay tuned for real-time updates! 📉🔄🚀 #Bitcoin #ETFDecision #MarketAnalysis
Bitcoin Adoption Update: Jan 12, 2023 – What you need to know from the last week.
Not investment advice.
#bitcoinnewstoday #bitcoinupdate #bitcoincrypto #bitcoinmarketupdate #bitcoinnetwork #bitcoinexpert #bitcoineducation
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