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We start our new crop #CBOT #Corn #CarryOut at 1.79 billion, with a trend yield still plugged-in at 183...so, stocks-to-usage starts at 11%, with overall demand for new crop corn advertised 325 million-bushels below this year...is that what we should expect? At what price will that happen when livestock producers, bio-fuel processors, and importers still have margins at current price levels? There is no grass out West, fuel prices remain historically high, and nobody else can stand in the shadow of our corn production on a Global scale, while domestic usage across the Globe toward ethanol continues to gain traction.
If we don't achieve a trend yield, where do we find more acres next year? Even at a 180 bpa, which is only a ~1.5% decline in yield from current "trend", the corn carry out would drop to 1.528 billion, and ~9% stocks-to-usage.
USDA still didn't bump corn exports, still didn't bump the bean crush, which means we still have more demand to find in subsequent reports, while supplies are difficult to argue higher, including domestic combined corn and soybean acreage. We're harvesting the lowest about of wheat acres since 1877, with corn/soy area being maxed-out ~182 million combined acres. With wind, solar, data centers, and urban sprawl still ongoing, the pot to pull from is getting smaller. Conversely, the contentment with raising BIG crops has grown.
Historically, at 10% stocks-to-usage on corn, we'd be looking at prices ~$5.00/bushel; at 9%, $5.30+. Again, this is if usage levels we're looking at are accurate, and they might still be light, IMO.
Just for giggles, if we saw a 5% reduction from trend line yield (I don't think we're there today, but wouldn't take the over on 183), that would equate to a 174 yield, and put the corn carryout around a billion bushels, with stocks-to-usage around 6%. We would never see numbers like that printed, but again, I challenge at what price levels does demand slow? $4.50 vs $5.00 doesn't mean much for the cattle producer, nor the processor when historically strong margins have been available - the only mistake you can make there is NOT owning the physical supply off the combine.
Not screaming that this IS a problem, rather than IF it becomes one, how do we find our way out of it?
FWIW, our 10 year avg yield, WITHOUT the trend line is 175.92; without last year's 186, the avg for the past nine years was 174.8.
Selling or staying short this market is predicated on a strong belief that yields not only hold trend, but rise from here, and/or that demand isn't healthy enough to sustain current vigor. We may already be under value. If either one of those is un-true, we're well under-valued; if both are...it'll be the best thing to happen to @JohnDeere this decade.

今日もライブありがとうございました!
はじめてバラードっぽい曲も歌ってみたけど「よかった」って言ってくれる人がいてくれるのが本当に嬉しい…!ありがとう🥰
もっともっと自分の声を、歌を、届けていきたいなと思いました
頑張ります🔥
250923【Carry Out vol.27】
#CarryOut #渋谷Malcolm

Because they know the strike and the manifesto are effective,
so they do it.
#France
#manifestation #Carryout #Proactivite
ㅤㅤ
LOADING THE 25TH FILE . . .
WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE .ᐣ
⤷ THE CRIMSON RECEIVED
A PACKAGE FROM 𝐉𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐃.
#GoldenHour_JARED #JRDRECORDS
#JARED #CARRYOUT
ㅤㅤ

The least expected package I’ve received! Gotta check ‘em all out — and y’all should too. Huge thanks to Jared for including me.
Check out his singles under this tweet and show some love!
#GoldenHour_JARED
#JRDRECORDS
#JARED #CarryOut
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♬ 2025.09.06 6PM (KST)
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JARED 'CARRY OUT' SPECIAL EP
HIGH AS YOU
OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO
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JARED 'HIGH AS YOU' OFFICIAL MV TEASER
♬ 2025.09.06 6PM (KST)
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JARED 'CARRY OUT' SPECIAL ALBUM DETAILS
♬ 2025.09.06 6PM (KST)
#GoldenHour_JARED
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JARED 'CARRY OUT' CONCEPT PHOTO #2
♬ 2025.09.06 6PM (KST)
#GoldenHour_JARED
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