Top Tweets for #CoupCast
Following Jan 6, 2021 researchers reprogrammed #CoupCast's model to account for factors it had previously downplayed, like the role of a leader stoking mob #violence, while underplaying other factors, like long-term #democratic history.2/2
To learn more about #coups around the world, check out our #CoupCast page from our @opennuclear program that uses historical data & machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.
https://t.co/VRj9zaWhi2
.#Algeria, #Burundi and Guinea-Bissau have the highest risk of coup this month, as the #COVID19 pandemic and oil price war between #SaudiArabia and #Russia produce ambiguous risks for political instability.
#CoupCast #MachineLearning #dataviz #Elections
https://t.co/fFjHKP6zDs
"Assuming #coup conspirators have broad support within the military and #civilsociety and manage to keep the plot sufficiently hidden from state security agencies, is the coup guaranteed to succeed or does the specific timing of the coup matter?" @william_akoto #CoupCast
Our first #CoupCast report of 2020 is now available. Three familiar faces top the list: #Egypt, #Algeria and #Sudan.
#MachineLearning #DataScience #REIGNDataset
https://t.co/OrnOYUsw64
๐ต๐ฌ Papua New Guinea concluded its Bougainville independence referendum. ๐ฌ๐งThe #UnitedKingdom held a parliamentary election. And Guinea-Bissau will hold a second-round presidential election on December 29. ๐ฌ๐ผ
#CoupCast #REIGNDataset #Elections
https://t.co/k1NM1rd8aa
2019 is almost over, but there's still time to catch up and examine historical trends, our analyses on the risk of coup events and the geographic hotspots for the coming year. #CoupCast #PoliticalForecasting
https://t.co/Tbtxk5SXpg
August 2019 #CoupCast Mini-Update: #Sudan, #Egypt and #GuineaBissau face the highest risks of a military coup attempt. #MachineLearning @Medium #Thedieisforecast
https://t.co/NfiHRCcDZX
Is it true that coup begets coup? Our #REIGNDataset can help answer this question. The REIGN dataset collects data on elections in every country, every month starting from January 1950 to today. #CoupCast #ThrowbackThursday #PoliticalConflict https://t.co/mz6txB77wL
These political rivalries amid transition, a presidential election and poor economic prospects for the general population, point to a heightened risk of a #coup event within the next six months.@ConversationUS #GuineaBissau #CoupCast
.#Sudan, #Syria, and #SouthSudan have the highest risk of a coup attempt in the month of May. #Venezuela, #Algeria, and #Turkey also crack the top-ten for this month. #CoupCast #Coup @Medium https://t.co/QHq98l1Pbx
Coups, and political instability broadly, are unique, and no single quantitative #forecast will provide perfect information about the risk governments face going into the future. Learn more in our NEW #CoupReport2019 here: https://t.co/ReM6ykAfI9 #CoupCast #forecasting #dataviz
Interesting. A social and political tool to forecast the probability of a Coup d'รtat.
#Egypt 1/191 and ranked 16.
Do we still need political and risk analysts?๐ค
#CoupCast #OEFResearch https://t.co/zFr2WbMJdQ
"Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of sudden regime changes is CoupCast, published by @OEForg, an NGO." https://t.co/HQXDVyH6r3 @TheEconomist @ClaytonBesaw #REIGNDataset #CoupCast
CoupCast finds that economic misery is linked to higher coup risk, as is extreme weather https://t.co/sZLIOmt6J7
In our recent contribution to @TheEconomist, data journalist @wade_zhou & @OEForg's @ClaytonBesaw discuss the dynamics of forecasting challenges and coup risks. #CoupCast #REIGNDataset
How to predict when a despot will fall https://t.co/00F5UWDQJ2
"According to #CoupCast, a predictive model based on 68 economic and other variables, Africa is the only continent where the factors that foster coups are still fairly widespread" @OEForg @TheEconomist #REIGNDataset https://t.co/NR426FWDrp
Check out this collaboration between @TheEconomist data journalist @wade_zhou & @OEForg's @ClaytonBesaw entitled "How to predict when a despot will fall". Our #CoupCast model is the most rigorous quantitative forecast of political upheaval. https://t.co/VfJPJ5ZFva
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