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A quick Monday morning #DataDave sectional breakdown of the Australian Cup.
I rated Flemington a Dead 4.4 on the Circle and 4.9 in the Straight races.
I've attached 2 screenshots from Form King:
1 - The class-adjusted sectional breakdown of Saturday's race. I colour code them so green is fast/very fast and yellow is strong, red very slow and no colour is just average. As you can see, all but 3 horses went "fast+" to the 800m.
2 - Pride of Jenni's top 4 previous class-adjusted tempos to the 800m, with the Queen Elizabeth being the prior fastest at 14.7L quicker than par.
What I find most interesting is that she's gone 3.2 lengths faster on Saturday than she ever has prior, and this includes the QE where she led the race by 30 lengths. What an optical illusion that race was.
It's such a fine line with a horse like her - obviously an incredible athlete, but it's such a balancing act when they're ridden on the edge all the time.
The race as a whole has come home very slow, as you'd expect, and it must be said that the winner did a fantastic job, but travelled in the plum spot to be close enough, but have something left at the end.
I thought Deny Knowledge had absolutely no right to kick on late and go back past Zardozi and Atishu, what a gutsy performance off how close she was!
My final rating for Light Infantry Man was 104.6, which is a bit more than 1 length better than par, all things considered. This is almost a 2L new peak for him in Australia for me and it looks like he can now be a regular contender at Weight For Age.
Obviously a race tempo like that is going to help them set up a very strong overall time, and I think the conditions on the day were such that it was a bit of an assist to run good time on the circle, if you'd run the race solidly early.
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A #DataDave review of the Rosehill Guineas from a sectional data and pace shape angle.
Swiftfalcon was my backup 🪱 of the week. He was $5 into a $3.6 BSP, and while I was disappointed he didn't lob, I wanted to unpack the race and see whether there was enough merit in his run to forgive (TLDR; I think there was).
I backed Swiftfalcon because I liked the platform he came off, with a big mid race in the Randwick Guineas, and I felt if he could enjoy a more economical mid race here, then he had the firepower to go past late.
The Track: I have Rosehill very much an "Up and In" surface yesterday. The vast majority of winners and placegetters on the day came from the top 5 on the turn, and from the inside of the field. Back and wide was a distinct disadvantage.
The Race: We got the map right with Goldrush Guru leading, and it looked like J-Mac would be posted for a few moments, but he was too clever, and had a versatile enough horse to press forward, and eventually land in the 1 out, 1 back, a perfect spot. Tempo was just below average to the 800m, average in the mid section and solid late.
Swiftfalcon: He was "squeezed" even harder than last start - around 16 lengths faster versus par in the mid section, than he went early. That's 2 big mid race efforts in a row. The red arrows show the squeeze (add those 2 numbers together).
He's gone 5 lengths faster than Broadsiding in the mid section, looping the field in a spot you did not want to be on the day. And for the 2nd race in a row, he's again gone faster than Broadsiding late.
But "No speed, No talent", seems to apply here. In this grade of race, and on these fairly comfortable tempos, you need to be absolutely elite to overhaul very good horses who are able to put themselves in the race. I don't really feel it was the ride. The only missed opportunity I felt, was not tagging the roughie when the brakes were applied up front. On a fair track, and certainly had it been Randwick, I think the ride he got would have won the race, and I'm inclined to treat them as if he did.
Aeliana: I feel she should have won the race on the day (held up). Her last 200m was best in race, and 12th best at the meeting.
Broadsiding: He was the 3rd best run in the race for mine, but he had the best rider and took up the best position. Winners win, and he's a winner and a very versatile horse.
The race rating was just modest in comparison to the Ranvet, and slightly down on the Randwick Guineas. I've got it a 1 length PB for Aeliana, but only Broadsiding's 6th best performance - a tick over 2 lengths below his peak.
Going forward, I think both Aeliana and Swiftfalcon will win races, but I think race shape is going to be really important for both of them.
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Here's a Form King 👑 #DataDave review of the Coolmore Classic, taken out by an emerging star in Lady Shenandoah.
A treat for handicappers, with 3 x 1500m races on the card to help us draw (bend) a few lines between them.
Of the 3, only the Coolmore was genuinely run - I'd call it a solid pace (4.5L above par to the 800m), but with a soft mid race, allowing those in the running line and best ground to take control of the race.
The Ajax Stakes, won by Iowna Merc was run some 9 lengths slower overall (weak tempo to the 600m) than Lady Shenandoah's time, and the Phar Lap Stakes won by Lazzura was a whopping 20 lengths adrift of Lady Shenandoah overall, a "walk" to the 600m.
🏅All told, I scored the Coolmore ~3 lengths stronger than the Ajax, with the Phar Lap a further ~3 lengths back.
Lady Shenandoah went into the race with an Australian Official Handicap Rating of 106, and they've not indicated a new mark from her out of the race as yet. I am saying she's run to an equivalent of 111 at the weights carried, which, given she carried more than her Weight For Age allocation, would see her - in my eyes - more like a 117 in ability off that performance. To put that in perspective, Imperatriz carried a 119 rating when she last raced.
But the big challenge out of the meeting going forward has to be how we treat performances of those that enjoyed runs out in lane 8+, versus those inside lane 5 in the straight.
To illustrate my point, Lady Shenandoah gave Iowna Merc 4kg against the WFA scale, she ran 9 lengths faster than him to the 600m, and then she ran home L6, L4, L2 in basically identical splits (within 0.5L each of them) to him. Iowna rolled inside lane 5, and the Lady was out wider.
Lady Shenandoah is of course a better horse than Iowna Merc, but that statistic has my attention.
In summary, I'm saying "they" forecasted The Lady to a 1L PB on Saturday, she ran more or less to it, and I reckon while that might not be her ceiling, you could make the case that "they" will now forecast her to at least this mark at her next few starts, whenever they might be.
Data and Insight courtesy of https://t.co/qm9rA0Sbcx
Time for the Form King 👑 Worm 🪱 of the Week!
Week 1: 2.5u out, 5.7u in => +3.2u
Week 2: 2u out, 4.48u in => +2.48u
Week 3: 2.5u out, 7.94u in => +5.44u
Week 4 Spend: 1.6u
As heard on @RSN927 with @m_felgate, this week's WOTW is Flemington R4 #10 Top Calibre at $4.8 (top pic, bold grey). Shown filtered to the sprint trip here, the 3 horses with ratings that are likely to win this race are Top Calibre, Elouyou and Written Bligh.
I felt that Top Calibre was the most suited of the 3 in the setup here, drawn a nice spot on the grandstand side and can have Elouyou in his sights the whole way. The form out of his last win has been franked in Adelaide, and I like the patience they've shown with him, waiting for this race and Craig Williams to ride ticks another box. Marked $3.75 and staking 0.8u at the $4.8.
The backup is in the Australian Guineas - Flemington R8 #12 Sepals, also at $4.8 (bottom pic, bold purple).
Sepals posted the best lead up rating in the C.S. Hayes Stakes, running slick late sectionals to kick clear of that field. I'd find it hard to be with anything else from that race, but I do concede a strong winning chance to Angel Capital, who has the 2nd best lead up rating. I'm not against backing both if price allows, and I've taken a bit of a set against Point and Shoot, who has drawn poorly. Staking Sepals 0.8u at the $4.8.
My @Betfair_Aus lay of the day this week is Bold Hero at Ascot in R6, currently around $2.5 to win. He's a horse who I feel has found his grade, and drawn to potentially encounter a bit of traffic in a race devoid of tempo, which makes the $2.5 unpalatable for me (marked $5).
In the Highway Class 3 at Randwick, I felt it looked much more open this week. We got the cash with Exit Fee, but here he is back in trip - in fact all 3 of Danny Williams' runners are ~300m back in trip in 7-8 days!
That left me with a horse who Matt Dunn has tried 3 times with the Queensland -> NSW Highway pattern, and tomorrow he gets Nash Rawiller and a fair chance from the gate. Carribean King is only just a Highway number, but I've marked him on top at $5 and have taken the $7 for 0.5u.
Best of luck tomorrow.
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We've got @DataDaveTV for Day 17 of the #JackboxAdvent Calendar! Wahoo!
Watch at https://t.co/oWb9GToPmh!
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The Concorde Stakes was the popular choice this week for the Form King 👑 #DataDave review.
With a 6M rail, and a notable SSE wind pattern, the Chute races have played fast - even those that were not run at a fast tempo.
I feel it will be a day where the keen eye will outperform the data teams next time these horses step out. The principal reason being that there was a strong advantage to those on the fence in run, particularly if closer to the lead.
Way To The Stars (beautifully ridden and placed on the day) has been able to find the lead without Rachel doing any work in the first 200m.
The tempo numbers I am quoting might seem a shade pessimistic when we watch the video back - I've reported an even gallop and sustained in the mid section, but not a fast pace by Group 3 standards. For the average horse, however, it would be an above par tempo. Some of the other Chute races on the day were run very fast, and they may be dragging slightly on the reported tempo of this race, as they will be lifting the bar for all Chute races.
The 3 placegetters all come off the fence in run here, and Bella Nipotina has closed with a lightning 31.96 L600m. Way To The Stars himself has run 32.84 L600m. A tailwind at his back for sure, but I feel that kind of late sectional from the front of the race does support the theory that his tempo was only even to the 600m.
The big issue for the data fan out of this race is that those outside the top 3 have received ratings that would be considered only just Saturday Open grade. 1.5 lengths covered the 4th to 10th place-getters on the wire, and so I would conclude that they've all fallen victim to the pattern of the day, and that their ratings aren't reflective of their current form.
I Am Me was clearly auditioning for an Everest berth, and she has run a slight new peak (at Weight For Age) of 102.1, with Bella Nipotina running close to the median of her last 10 performances at 102.5.
Way To The Stars has run to a slight new peak, and was the only horse to surpass his Australian Benchmark Handicap rating (83) in doing so, running what I'd call the equivalent of 87 at the weights carried. That sort of rating (90-ish) puts him in fringe-Listed grade going forward.
Raw times courtesy of Daily Sectionals. Performance data and insight courtesy of https://t.co/ecqohWJUK1
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Joliestar (and J-Mac's sore neck) is the talk of both towns, and for good reason.
For this week's Form King 👑 #DataDave segment, let's break down both the Randwick surface from Saturday, and the sectional/pace shape of the Show County Quality, won by Joliestar.
Randwick (officially a 4) was on the better side of a Dead 5 (4.5 to 5.5). Winds were notable, especially in the middle of the card. Some soft tempos on the day, and with those, some of these winners have come home in Good to Fast track Last 400/200 times.
Much Much Better set a weak tempo to the 800m, and continued that in the mid section of the race, which provided the perfect pattern for Joliestar to build from the 600m.
She was travelling comfortably below par between the 8-6 and then she made the race fastest splits home from there, with a sizzling 32.84s L600m, according to Daily Sectionals. That's a whopping 9.5 lengths fast for this class in these conditions. Mind you, she travelled 9.8L below par to the 600m.
Some thoughts:
- Joliestar came in with an Australian Handicap of 102. Racing NSW has given an indicative post race rating of 110.
- Form King says her time was equivalent to 117 on the Australian Benchmark scale (105.8 on my scale) and normalised to Weight For Age, it is clipped back to 112 on the Australian Benchmark scale, or 104.2 on the Form King scale.
- If she can carry her full Weight For Age allocation and improve slightly, I could easily see her with a 117+ official handicap, which would put her in the same ballpark as Imperatriz.
- With I Wish I Win 1-2L off his best form last prep and Giga Kick a real unknown this prep, we are probably looking at the deserved favourite for an Everest.
- She did enjoy the perfect spot on the day - you wanted to be in the 2 wide line and come down the middle of the track.
- The race tempo was a perfect setup for a good horse to run home like she did, and a perfect platform to hold the rating 2nd/3rd up.
- Nothing in behind her ran a peak rating, which suggests we're not over-playing the numbers.
Raw times and sectionals courtesy of Vince Accardi's Daily Sectionals. Benchmarks, ratings and insight courtesy of https://t.co/ecqohWJUK1
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The Vain Stakes has not met my standard for a Saturday grade early 3yo race*
What better way to rekindle the #DataDave segment, than to have a look at the Vain Stakes (boys) versus the Quezette Stakes (girls), which were run at Caulfield on Saturday.
We'll use my All Average pars to compare apples with apples. "Average" is akin to a Metro Midweek BM72 type of horse. Screenshot attached.
Pre Race:
- Form King said the Vain was going to be between 1 and 1.5 lengths weaker than the Quezette. Keep in mind a few of the girls carried more weight than the boys.
Post Race:
- The Vain went out ~2.2L faster. They were slower in the mid section and much slower late.
- The Quezette saw an all the way leader, at an average gallop for the class (slightly below average in this comparison). Drifting (winner) ran the fastest of the 4 x 1100m races on the day. Another pointer that gives us confidence in the rating.
- The final raw difference between the 2 races was about 3.5L in favour of the girls. Considering they went out slower, you'd be justified in saying that is conservative.
At the weights carried:
Band of Brothers: 84.6
Drifting: 91.3
Normalised to Weight For Age:
Band of Brothers: 88.5
Drifting: 97.3
* I'd say typical early season Saturday grade 3YO races would be around 87-88 at the weights carried.
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No poll for this week's Form King 👑 #DataDave review. I felt it would have been a landslide for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, given the massive spectacle on the track, and the polarising opinions I've read since.
This is a race that breaks the mould when it comes to post race analysis and handicapping. Analysing the winner's performance is one thing, but then dealing with the beaten brigade is quite another. If you want a set of ratings that are usable going forward, the beaten brigade need to be treated as if they ran in a different race - A race where Mr Brightside led at around 15L slower than par in the first section. As per all slowly run races, those in behind aren't given the opportunity to run a good overall time, and their resulting rating needs to be adjusted ⬆️ to reflect that.
The other race was the one where Pride of Jenni led at about 15L FAST in the early stages. But she didn't do it immediately out of the blocks.
At 3:55pm, the winds were South, South Easterly and moderate, around 25kmh. This is a headwind down the back of the course, and a tailwind once they've rounded the corner at the 1200m. It was enough to result in a track speed of 3.5 for the chute and 4.2 for the circle (bar 3200m, which was also 3.5).
The 2nd image (cumulative early sectionals) shows how the tempo set by Jenni didn't reach the "Fast" category until she hit the 1200m marker, and then she really let rip between the 12-6 section. I'd love to know if Declan was aware that he pressed the button at the perfect time, because he did the exact same thing relative to the wind direction in the All Star Mile.
The final image (cumulative late sectionals) highlights the task that was laid out for Via Sistina, Mr Brightside et al at the 1200m. They really were set an impossible task, partly because of the daring tactics of Declan and Jenni, but mainly because the leader of the "chasing" pack wasn't doing any chasing.
And so this is where the polarising chat has been post race - In theory - could Winx have run Pride of Jenni down and won the race?
To the 1200m, Via Sistina travelled at a saunter of 14.84 mets/sec, or around -2.5L slower than the typical leader per 100m! From the 1200m home, she's been forced to travel 17.33 mets/sec, which puts her speed for that section right in the ballpark with the 2 better sprint races on the day.
Many have suggested that 👌 would have judged the pace better than James did, and that he'd have had Winx within striking distance. Maybe he would have. Maybe he wouldn't have. Impossible question to answer. Just remember that anything more they do early looping the field, they're likely to give back late in the form of slower closing sectionals.
What if Winx found herself in the exact spot Via Sistina was? Could she have run Jenni down - keeping in mind the going was a genuine 4, not a proper Good or Fast track, like she enjoyed late in the 2018 Turnbull, where she did run closing splits that would win this race off a very similar early tempo.
Sadly, I don't have Daily Sectionals times going back to the Winx era. I'd like to think that she'd have gone pretty close, but improving Via Sistina's last 1200m by a further 7 lengths isn't a walk in the park. I think it would have taken the absolute best of Winx and Bowman to win from there.
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The Golden Slipper was the most voted race for the inaugural Form King 👑 Data Dave review.
I think we're looking at a quality edition of the race, perhaps slightly above what you'd normally expect for the Slipper.
Lady of Camelot recorded the fastest raw 1200m time of the 3 races on the meeting ✅
She did this carrying roughly 10kg more than her Weight For Age allocation ⚖️
Her WFA adjusted rating was 100.9, which is the 2nd highest 2YO performance I have this season, behind Storm Boy's 101.2 at the Gold Coast 🏆
Shangri La Express did set the fastest class-adjusted tempo to the 600m on the day (+2.5L vs +1L for The Novelist and -2.6L for Short Shorts). That said, +2.5L over 600m early is only a "solid" tempo and not anything to be worried about for the on pace division.
Margin spread was just broad enough to be happy that the numbers match the eye. Certainly adds more evidence to the fact that the tempo was just solid.
A few insights from the 2 attached sectional and late split breakdown images:
- Blake Shinn was able to back off Lady of Camelot slightly in the middle of the race (Only 14th fastest 8-4 section, whilst enjoying 4th position in run), and save her for 1 last burst L200m. A brilliantly measured ride.
- Storm Boy and Coleman sectionally very similar to the 200m, but completely different runs and that was likely the difference. Missing the kick caused Storm Boy to work much harder in the first 200m split, just to get to a position where he was still at a disadvantage, relative to Lady of Camelot. In the straight, he took the inside line, which may not have been ideal - but I feel it was the way in which his energy had to be used that cost him his chance.
- Manaal a massive run. 5th fastest 8-4 raw section time of the meeting and 2nd fastest 8-4 section on a ratings rank basis. Followed that up with a race best L400m. But all of the damage was done in the first 200m. Was a whopping -8.9L below par in the first 200m of the race, while Lady of Camelot was -1.7L below par in that same split. This set Manaal an impossible task.
Great to see the 2YOs stack up yet again against the older horses on the day, and I hope you've gained something out of this segment. Let's make the Data Dave review a regular thing.
Raw times courtesy of Daily Sectionals, insight courtesy of Form King.
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