Top Tweets for #DecemberInflation

December Inflation Will Support Disinflation Outlook, But Offers Limited Contribution for 2026❗️ With monthly inflation falling below 1% in November, the improving disinflation outlook has gained traction. According to my finalized projections, this trend is likely to continue in December. My CPI forecast for December stands at 0.97%📌 If realized, annual inflation could close the year at 31%, aligning with the lower bound of the Central Bank of Turkey’s latest forecast range. However, a closer look at the components—especially developments in food prices—suggests that December inflation will offer only limited support to the 2026 disinflation path. A cautious stance on the inflation outlook remains warranted❗️ Here’s a breakdown of my key component forecasts: 📌 Fresh vegetable prices, despite a favorable start to the month, have seen significant increases, reversing earlier expectations of a decline. While fruit prices may still trend downward, meat prices continue to rise. As a result, unprocessed food inflation is unlikely to sustain its negative trend from November and is projected to rise by 2.5% in December. More importantly, this points to a cautious outlook for January food inflation as well❗️ 📌 Processed food inflation continues its deceleration, easing from 1.5% in November to an estimated 1.2% in December. 📌 Total food inflation is expected to return to positive territory at 1.8%. However, since December 2024 also saw a 1.24% monthly increase, the annual food inflation may only rise modestly, potentially ending the year around 27%, keeping the 2026 year-end target of 18% within reach. 📌 Household goods show limited increases, while car prices are slightly negative on average. Combined with moderate energy prices, transportation inflation may come in negative. Clothing prices, benefiting from seasonal factors, could contribute positively to monthly inflation. 📌 The extent of improvement in sticky services inflation, especially beyond seasonal effects, will be another key factor. I expect a moderate trend in rent and food services, with monthly rent inflation potentially falling below 2%, and food services inflation hovering around 1.5%. The negative trend in accommodation prices is likely to ease. 📌 On the core inflation front, I expect the C index to come in at 0.95%, close to the headline figure, with the annual rate easing slightly from 31.65% to 31.5%. In conclusion, while the high base from January 2025 could help kick off 2026 with a sharp drop in annual inflation, volatility in food prices and uncertainties around structural improvements in services inflation beyond seasonality suggest that expectations for accelerated rate cuts should be approached with caution 📌 #DecemberInflation #CPI #Disinflation #FoodInflation #ServicesInflation