#DescentNeglect - Twitter Hashtag

about 1 month ago

WastewaterSCAN data suggest an apparent national peak on the 13th US COVlD wave between Sep 8-13. Substantial transmission persists on the back end of waves. Mask up and get boosted. 💉💪😷 #DescentNeglect

michael_hoerger's tweet photo. WastewaterSCAN data suggest an apparent national peak on the 13th US COVlD wave between Sep 8-13.

Substantial transmission persists on the back end of waves. Mask up and get boosted. 💉💪😷
#DescentNeglect https://t.co/CeAcy6QkpM

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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

over 2 years ago

Shortly thereafter, @TimHendersonSL wrote an article on #DescentNeglect. Many people do not realize the current risk or are being pushed into unsafe schools and workplaces by those minimizing post-peak transmission. 3/3 https://t.co/NECtidRaBt

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

almost 3 years ago

Excellent article from @TimHendersonSL on the toll of the ongoing surge. Cites lots of stats, including C0VID deaths more than doubling among people with #cancer. https://t.co/CdStrdAsBe Quotes Dr. Freedman at Clemson, "To me it’s almost unethical that we’re not warning people that this highly transmissible virus is still with us." #CovidCancer

michael_hoerger's tweet photo. Excellent article from @TimHendersonSL on the toll of the ongoing surge.

Cites lots of stats, including C0VID deaths more than doubling among people with #cancer.
https://t.co/CdStrdAsBe

Quotes Dr. Freedman at Clemson, "To me it’s almost unethical that we’re not warning people that this highly transmissible virus is still with us."

#CovidCancer

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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

over 2 years ago

We first commented on #DescentNeglect in the Jan 15 PMC Forecast. Most people underestimate the risk of COVID after the peak day of transmission in a surge. We're still seeing >1 million infections per day. 2/3 https://t.co/gk0j0hQkUk

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

almost 3 years ago

1/7 PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Jan 15, 2024 🔹1.2-1.5 million daily U.S. infections the next month 🔹41.2 million total infections the next month 🔹66.7 million total infections over the next 2 months These infection rates are 30% higher than a year ago. Yet, expect considerable minimizing. Many people believe that once the peak day has passed, it's smooth sailing, what I would call "Descent Neglect." Take an analogy: More people die, supposedly, going down Mt. Everest than going up. With COVID surges, people also underestimate how bad the 2nd half of surge mountain is likely to be. They overestimate how spiky or leptokurtic a a surge tends to be. Transmission will go down gradually, meaning extremely high transmission the next 4-6 weeks especially. This may be fueled by a misunderstanding of how quickly transmission declines, defense mechanisms to temporarily and artificially reduce anxiety, short-term political or capital interests, or a combination of these factors. #DescentNeglect

michael_hoerger's tweet photo. 1/7
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Jan 15, 2024

🔹1.2-1.5 million daily U.S. infections the next month
🔹41.2 million total infections the next month
🔹66.7 million total infections over the next 2 months

These infection rates are 30% higher than a year ago. Yet, expect considerable minimizing. Many people believe that once the peak day has passed, it's smooth sailing, what I would call "Descent Neglect."

Take an analogy: More people die, supposedly, going down Mt. Everest than going up. With COVID surges, people also underestimate how bad the 2nd half of surge mountain is likely to be. They overestimate how spiky or leptokurtic a a surge tends to be. Transmission will go down gradually, meaning extremely high transmission the next 4-6 weeks especially.

This may be fueled by a misunderstanding of how quickly transmission declines, defense mechanisms to temporarily and artificially reduce anxiety, short-term political or capital interests, or a combination of these factors.

#DescentNeglect

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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

over 2 years ago

After trailing the UK and Canada, the US has snuck ahead on COVID transmission with a particularly long tail for the winter surge. 🥇 #DescentNeglect 1/3

michael_hoerger's tweet photo. After trailing the UK and Canada, the US has snuck ahead on COVID transmission with a particularly long tail for the winter surge. 🥇

#DescentNeglect
1/3 https://t.co/mnV5J70eYM

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

over 2 years ago

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 19, 2024 The U.S. is in a prolonged high-transmission COVID surge. 🔹 68 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far) 🔹1.2 million daily infections 🔹2.7% (1 in 38) are actively infectious today 🔹60,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day Current Levels Relative to the full pandemic, transmission remains higher today than during about 86% of the pandemic. There is lower transmission than during only 14% of the pandemic. The Post-Surge Hill We are in a "post-surge hill" of transmission that is higher than the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest waves in the U.S. in its own right. We began forecasting the post-surge hill of transmission 5 weeks ago. Last week, we estimated that the peak transmission day of the hill was Feb 7. That may be true. Biobot's most recent estimate for Feb 14 (labeled on their graph as Feb 17 for the week's end rather than more-correct midpoint) has levels of 929 copies/mL, corresponding to 1.4 million daily infections. The difference between levels for Feb 7 and Feb 14 (and perhaps ultimately Feb 21) are well within the margin of error for their real-time reporting. Note that our estimates for Feb 19 carry forward their values using our forecasting model and suggest marginally lower levels for Feb 19 at 871 copies/mL. The take-home is that we're in extremely high sustained transmission, hopefully plateauing, and with an updated post-surge hill peak transmission date of somewhere between Feb 7 to Feb 21. Forecast the Next Month Daily transmission will likely range from 0.5-1.4 millions infections/day over the next month. Expect transmission to fall in half within 4 weeks. Virtually any plausible values entered into the model for next week still suggests a decline in transmission forthcoming. Continued increases in transmission would defy historical patterns of transmission as well as counter the recent leveling off of transmission. Next week, if Biobot reports levels of 1,025-1,100 copies/mL, that would be a very bad sign, model-defying in fact. Nonetheless, if as the models predict, transmission gets down to near 500,000 infections per day in a month, that's still catastrophically high in terms of daily acute illness and resulting long COVID cases of approximately 30,000/day. Why Is Transmission in Mid-Feb of 2024 Worse Than At This Time Point Any Other Year? Remember, in the U.S. a year ago, we still had a pandemic emergency declaration. It guided the narrative to take COVID seriously. It offered (too limited but) more testing than today. There was a greater emphasis on vaccination, testing, quarantine, and isolation. There was a push to add more air cleaning, rather than chuck air cleaners. All of this is to say that #PublicHealth is very weak right now, driven too often by extremely short-term financial and political considerations. As someone whose PhD dissertation focused on "delay of gratification" and whose MBA focused on long-term financial analytics, I like to think more in terms of 30-year plans. What we're doing right now is focusing more on quarterly (short-term corporate interests) or 9 month plans (elections). The consequence of laissez-faire public health is 84 consecutive days of >1 million U.S. daily COVID infections.

michael_hoerger's tweet photo. PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 19, 2024

The U.S. is in a prolonged high-transmission COVID surge.
🔹 68 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹1.2 million daily infections
🔹2.7% (1 in 38) are actively infectious today
🔹60,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day

Current Levels
Relative to the full pandemic, transmission remains higher today than during about 86% of the pandemic. There is lower transmission than during only 14% of the pandemic.

The Post-Surge Hill
We are in a "post-surge hill" of transmission that is higher than the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest waves in the U.S. in its own right. We began forecasting the post-surge hill of transmission 5 weeks ago. Last week, we estimated that the peak transmission day of the hill was Feb 7. That may be true. Biobot's most recent estimate for Feb 14 (labeled on their graph as Feb 17 for the week's end rather than more-correct midpoint) has levels of 929 copies/mL, corresponding to 1.4 million daily infections. The difference between levels for Feb 7 and Feb 14 (and perhaps ultimately Feb 21) are well within the margin of error for their real-time reporting. Note that our estimates for Feb 19 carry forward their values using our forecasting model and suggest marginally lower levels for Feb 19 at 871 copies/mL. The take-home is that we're in extremely high sustained transmission, hopefully plateauing, and with an updated post-surge hill peak transmission date of somewhere between Feb 7 to Feb 21.

Forecast the Next Month
Daily transmission will likely range from 0.5-1.4 millions infections/day over the next month. Expect transmission to fall in half within 4 weeks. Virtually any plausible values entered into the model for next week still suggests a decline in transmission forthcoming. Continued increases in transmission would defy historical patterns of transmission as well as counter the recent leveling off of transmission. Next week, if Biobot reports levels of 1,025-1,100 copies/mL, that would be a very bad sign, model-defying in fact. Nonetheless, if as the models predict, transmission gets down to near 500,000 infections per day in a month, that's still catastrophically high in terms of daily acute illness and resulting long COVID cases of approximately 30,000/day.

Why Is Transmission in Mid-Feb of 2024 Worse Than At This Time Point Any Other Year?
Remember, in the U.S. a year ago, we still had a pandemic emergency declaration. It guided the narrative to take COVID seriously. It offered (too limited but) more testing than today. There was a greater emphasis on vaccination, testing, quarantine, and isolation. There was a push to add more air cleaning, rather than chuck air cleaners. All of this is to say that #PublicHealth is very weak right now, driven too often by extremely short-term financial and political considerations. As someone whose PhD dissertation focused on "delay of gratification" and whose MBA focused on long-term financial analytics, I like to think more in terms of 30-year plans. What we're doing right now is focusing more on quarterly (short-term corporate interests) or 9 month plans (elections). The consequence of laissez-faire public health is 84 consecutive days of >1 million U.S. daily COVID infections.

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#CheckYourFerritin #FreePalestine #MedicareForAll @PJ17862

almost 3 years ago

@michael_hoerger Thank you! #descentneglect #covidisnotover -now #uptickneglect :/ do you/models have a sense of how long into February or march this uptick will last? Wondering if we should postpone mid-feb in person #medtwitter-but no #neurotwitter appts for 9 months after! #dementia #endalz

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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

almost 3 years ago

5/ Shout out to @TimHendersonSL for getting the word out on #DescentNeglect -- that people neglect or underestimate the risk of transmission as we descend down the back end of surge mountain. https://t.co/NECtidRaBt

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

almost 3 years ago

Excellent article from @TimHendersonSL on the toll of the ongoing surge. Cites lots of stats, including C0VID deaths more than doubling among people with #cancer. https://t.co/CdStrdAsBe Quotes Dr. Freedman at Clemson, "To me it’s almost unethical that we’re not warning people that this highly transmissible virus is still with us." #CovidCancer

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