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EURO ENS -2.2 HDDs and -61 from normal GFS ENS -6 HDDs and -61 from normal I find myself wondering if I should start looking at CDDs? Bloomberg production 106.64 Refinitive 104.22 LNG 15.3 CAD Imports still around 5 BCFD. TTF is down 1.5% this morning Refinitive next 4 weeks continues to grow in terms of injections with -40, +5, +40 and +50 seen now. Salt Injections continue at a rate in excess of the 5 year average and likely to accelerate with the current forecast Good Morning, NG prices continue lower with the late acceleration of weakness yesterday generated by the BP CEO who said that the “time has come to drill in the Haynesville” with rising prices. I think the main question on most trader’s mind is about the Haynesville and perhaps this gave them some confidence to sell. That being said, Auchincloss didn’t really give any details on how or when, but with the recent weakness, I think it just made things worse. Weather looks extremely bearish here and Injections are growing for March, which could actually give us a build in March. Its going to be interesting to see how the cash markets reacts for the weekend with 12 HDDs and a strong wind forecast. Hub Gas has surprised people in term of its strength, and I am told that there is a “non-economic” buyer of gas supporting prices as they are using the Hub to supply exports instead of other pipes. As an example, Transco St 85 gas is almost ALWAYS at premium to the hub and its -10c in the cash which tells me that the Hub cash is artificially strong and not an indicator of the real market in Louisiana. As for my thoughts, I am not sure where we hold. It’s a bull market that got ahead of itself and now it’s extremely long from the CTA side as well. Do we need to stop out the CTAs? Other than momentum-based models, we may need to drop 50c more to get them to sell. This is tricky to me but I tend to think that NG will overcorrect rather than under correct considering positioning where longs are still in and shorts are stopped out. Bottom Line is $4 gas in the front of the curve is possible near term and I struggle to argue with the price of Jan26 $5.60 or April26 $4 which tells me spreads shorts are the way to go here. #natgas