Top Tweets for #FooledByRandomness

The arrow of history has noise but a strong drift. For those distressed w/Calligulino & North Macedonia, view them as one of the temporary setbacks in a 6000 year history of non-gradual, jumpy improvement. More technically, History proved to be a stochastic fat-tailed process w/a strong drift. [Even more technically, here is a Compound Poisson Process with Power-law bi-directional jumps, to simplify a Levy Pr]

Today I went through every 3-2 pitch Juan Soto saw in the 2025 season. Three things stuck out: 1️⃣ He Doesn’t Expand - he has some of the best strike zone awareness of anyone in the game. When he gets to two strikes, he does not chase or expand the zone. Most players start swinging at pitcher’s pitches. He makes pitchers execute a quality pitch to get him out. 2️⃣ He Competes! -he takes great pride in being a tough out. He battles. He doesn’t give in. He finds a way to get on base. 3️⃣ His Approach - because he’s so willing to use the entire field, his two strike approach does not need to change much. He gets a long look at each pitch because he’s willing to hit the fastball to the opposite field and pull the breaking ball.

$BTC has printed a Death Cross. Most accounts highlight the 4 death crosses this cycle that marked bottoms, but only to fit their bias. Let’s step back and look at the bigger picture objectively. Death crosses during a bull cycle, when analyzed through a time-based lens, are often designed to bait traders. Timing matters. While this cycle has seen a death cross act bullish 4/4 times, that doesn’t mean the pattern will continue indefinitely, especially as we approach the statistically significant end of the cycle. This suggests that the current death cross could resemble those from March 2018 or December 2021. Context, market structure, and overall cycle positioning are crucial when analyzing these crossovers. Unlike earlier in the cycle, this cross isn’t appearing at the start or middle of a bull run, it’s forming near the end. That doesn’t rule out short term relief, but structurally, the HTF bias remains bearish below until proven otherwise.