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What I'm monitoring on the #DAX/#German40 and why.
The DAX has been largely rangebound since the start of Q1 this year. Before the recent aggression by the Zionist regime, we saw a breakout from 24,600 to 25,500, and the price largely stayed rangebound between those levels.
From a structural perspective, price was gearing up to form a new range, similar to the previous "April" range seen in 2025. However, due to Trump suggesting tariffs, prices near the breakout area for the Ger40 created a sharp pullback to 24,500 before reversing back up to fill the gaps.
The first gap down was caused by the tariffs. However, today (Tuesday), we have seen one of the largest gaps down for the #Ger40 YTD β about 4% β caused by the tension between the Epstein regime and the Republic of Iran.
Reasons for the gap on the #DE40:
- Zionist aggression against a sovereign state
- Strait of Hormuz closure sending surges in energy prices in Germany
- Broader reduced risk appetite, with Trump tariffs and uncertainty
- Specific internal corporate pressures
We have lost both the "forming" December range as well as key indicators of bullish price action.
These indicators include:
- Both the fast and slow EMA bands
- Key institutional support level at 24,500
- Bearish MACD cross at the breakout, suggesting further bearish action
However, we are now in the April 2025 range and could potentially see institutional support around 23,400 or that general area.
Momentum confirms this:
- RSI is overbought/near exhaustion
- MACD is stretched and showing signs of exhaustion above
This suggests that the upside is vulnerable, rather than a strong bearish continuation.
My base case is a pullback toward the fast EMA (1M) after a key area of liquidity is established below, followed by an initial reversal and then strong liquidation of the accepted level.
Bigger picture:
If price can retrace, hold the liquidity zone, we could fall back into the April 2025 range and stay rangebound for the coming months. There are still gaps above, but they are not likely to be filled.
For now:
β Short-term caution
β Respect resistance
β Let price prove strength after the pullback
#DAX40 #DAXCrash #Geopolitics

Here's my BiWeekly outlook on the #DAX
The Trump Tariffs from the USA have caused significant volatility in European stocks as of now.
#German40 is Short Term Neutral before deciding direction. Probabilistically, the most likely path is now that we have rejected the 100 ema we will likely go to the newly formed range highs.
The New Range Highs are at 25.5k. If the 100 EMA does hold, I believe that we will break above and reach a new Established range as of the Second Leg of the breakout, also known as the "2026 Feb Range"
Much like the first breakout in Circa April 2025, we will have an initial move (that one was 1200 in length); however, the second leg will establish the new range - our current first leg is 900 in length.
In terms of the #GER40 indicators, the MACD supports the short-term bearish momentum by showing a clear crossover at the peaks; however, the RSI is oversold, suggesting that the price could rebound and likely will reverse since this is at a key level.
I believe the #DE40 will stay within the 24.5-25.5k unless some major news occurs, which is likely based on the US's recent actions in Europe and greenland
In which case, we may fall below the old 23k-24k Dax Range

#GERMAN40
We May Probably Seeing Dawn Move Towards Previous Week Low

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Here's my This Week's outlook on the #DAX
The Trump Tariffs from the USA have caused significant volatility in European stocks as of now.
#German40 is in a low probability short-term range
Probabilistically, the most likely path is that we break out of this range and go and fill in market inefficiencies left by Trump.
But before breaking out of the #GER40 weekly range, we need to see manipulation towards either side (Bullish Inefficiency/Bearish Inefficiency)
I believe the #DE40 is likely to go towards the bearish inefficiency first before going towards the bullish one, as it would require less friction for the instrument.
But whatever the case is, my job is to react, not predict, and I will be watching vigilantly.

Here's my BiWeekly outlook on the #DAX
The Trump Tariffs from the USA have caused significant volatility in European stocks as of now. #German40 is Short Term Bearish.
Probabilistically, the most likely path is that we reject the 200 EMA and test the Old Range High at 24.5k. If the 200 EMA does hold, I believe that we will break above and reach a new Established range as of the Second Leg of the breakout.
Much like the first breakout in Circa April 2025, we will have an initial move (that one was 1200 in length) howeve,r the second leg will establish the new range - our current first leg is 900 in length.
In terms of the #GER40 indicators, the MACD supports the short-term bearish momentum by showing a clear crossover at the peaks; however, the RSI is oversold, suggesting that the price could rebound, and likely will reverse since this is at a key level.
I believe the #DE40 will stay within the 24.5-25k (May Range 1,400) unless some major news occurs, which is likely based on the US's recent actions in Europe.
In which case, we may fall below the old 23k-24k Dax Range

News for #Dax/$DE40
A massive gap down on the #German40 confirms the marketβs fear of Trumpβs Greenland leverage.
The 10% tariff threat isn't just trade protection; itβs a test of how much sovereignty Europe will trade for stability.
When alliances become negotiation tools, trust is priced out, and volatility is priced in.
The gap is the marketβs realisation that the old rules of cooperation are dead.
Are we looking at a full fill, or is this the start of a long-term trend lower?

Here's my BiWeekly outlook on the #DAX
We liquidated the June Lows and reclaimed the 200 EMA and the 23,000 Level. This means the #German40 is bullish.
Probabilistically, the most likely path is that we reject the 100 EMA and test the 200 EMA. If the 200 EMA does hold, I believe that we will break above and reach the May highs by mid-December.
In terms of the #GER40 indicators, the MACD supports the bullish momentum by showing a clear crossover as well as the Relative Strength Index, which is Mid move.
I do believe the #DE40 will stay within the 23-24k (May Range 1,400) unless some major news happens, which is unlikely.

Why I'm watching 23,300 on the #DAX Like a Hawk today. ππ¦
I believe that level is a decider for where the Dax goes
1. If we reclaim 23,300, we are likely to stay within the May 2025 range, meaning we are likely to tag into the ATHs for the #German40
2. If we don't reclaim 23,300, we are likely to go much lower into the 22,100 range, and likely we will use that support level as resistance for the newly formed range.
Either way, it's an extremely important level and there is a chance we will be seeing its reaction this week #Ger40

The Dax Gurus told me we are short-term bearish until the 200 EMA/Support hits and rejects. LMAO #German40 #DAX #GermanStockMarket #De40 #daytrader
In terms of the Dax, Today Id love to see a bullish expansion into the Daily 100 Ema and perhaps a reclaim of that area so we can go above; However, right now the market is in an indecisive spot and could take out both areas below and above #German40 #DAX #DE40 #Germanstockmarket

The #German40 index just said βNoβ to the bears near a familiar support zone π»β. Are new all-time highs next? ππ
Find out in our latest technical update π https://t.co/kxFFVQP3aQ
#XM #TechnicalAnalysis
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As expected, we got a double liquidation β institutions bought the dip, and RSI is oversold, hinting at short-term bullish momentum. If price breaks above 24,000, bias flips bullish; otherwise, Iβm leaning bearish if it breaks below.
#GER40 #DAX #German40 #Trading #PriceAction

#Dax40 #German40 #Dax - This lady (@Nazl63092608) put her neck on the line and the results folks, are for all to see! She is the Dax Queen πππΈ - Follow her π―
@qtio1 @xannir @achini133 Now the index needs to decide either 239ΓΓ s or 2330/23060
510β‘οΈ239ΓΓ
510β¬οΈ23062
The #German40 index is on fire, trading 7.5% year-to-date and up by 26% since August. Will the record rally gain more legs?
Discover our technical analysis π
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