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#GoldPattern
This chart is making big rounds & for sure is pretty convincing at first glance. It overlays the 1979 Iran crisis spike with what we are seeing now, showing gold rocketing up on war fears then crashing hard once the panic faded. But lets dig a big deeper and check why this wont repeat this time !
Back then oil prices doubled, gold jumped from roughly $230 to over $850 an ounce by Jan 1980 and then it dropped more than 65% over the next couple of years as rates soared + recession hit. The pattern looks identical yes, so the prediction is that we are about to see the same dump, but I beg to differ on this.
I don't think that this is going to play out exactly like that this time. The world in 1979 was a very very different place to today. The petrodollar agreement had just started in June 1974, locking oil trades to dollars and giving the US currency its massive advantage for the next 50 years. We hit that precise 50 year anniversary in 2024, and gold didn't just wiggle, it broke out strongly, climbing past $2400 and then $2700 in late 2024 while central banks scooped up over 1000 tonnes that year, the second-highest annual total ever recorded.
We need to understand that longer cycles are lining up in ways they never did back then. Historical studies show empires tend to last around 250 years before major resets or declines. Counting from 1776 puts the United States at exactly 250 years in 2026. That's a milestone we were not atall facing in 1979.
You see similar stories some 6 years back when covid stuck. The 1920 Spanish flu pandemic matching up 100 years later with COVID in 2020 and the 1929 Great Depression setup pointing toward renewed pressures around 2029. well, none of those century-level alignments existed during the Iran hostage crisis.
Monetary history adds some big weight too. In 3 of the 4 four major monetary shifts, gold played a central role in settling the new order. The petrodollar birth in 1974 was the 1 exception that pushed gold aside for a while.
Now 50 years on, we are watching gold step forward again as debt levels explode & dollarization conversations growing louder.
The dates line up almost too similar which confuses us a bit. Nixon ended dollar-gold convertibility on August 15, 1971. Exactly 50 years later, on August 15, 2021, during the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, gold was trading between $1777 and $1780 an ounce, right at that symbolic $1776 level. It feels like a gradual cycle turn to me.
Short term, some profit-taking or dollar strength could pull gold back a bit if the immediate war fears cool. But structurally this is regime change territory. We're in the middle of the fourth industrial revolution with AI reshaping everything, multipolar power shifts accelerating, and tensions at levels people are calling World War III territory.
Central banks are not selling gold atall, in fact they are stacking it aggressively. That tells you where the smart money sees the long game. The chart shows an old echo, but the numbers and cycles scream new chapter. Gold's role is expanding, not peaking or crashing like before. What do you make of these overlapping timelines? What's your take?
@cryptosymbiiote
#GoldPattern
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