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⚾ Washington Nationals ML (+105) Washington Nationals @ New York Mets The market has this near +105. The model makes Washington Nationals a -192 favourite (66% win probability) — a 14.0% edge. Opponent pitching is the biggest single factor (starter 3.16 FIP, bullpen 4.72 ERA vs 4.10 league). Projected runs: NYM 4.26 — WSH 6.99 Caveat: New York Mets starter has only 8 innings this season — small sample, treat the number as soft. MLB last 30: 205-163 · -6.26u · -1.7% ROI Every pick graded, win or lose — nothing deleted.