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**Middle East War Shakes Turkey’s Steel Market: Cost Pressure on Billet, Rebar, Scrap and Flat Products**
The military tension in the Middle East has directly impacted Turkey’s steel market through sharp rises in freight and energy costs. Disruptions in Iranian supply and shipment risks have created a cautious atmosphere in the billet, rebar, scrap and flat steel segments.
In the billet market, local offers for March production stand at 500-520 $/mt ex-works. Producers are avoiding aggressive sales at these levels, which remain below production costs. For imported billet, Chinese-origin May shipment offers are heard at 487-490 $/mt CFR, while the general import range is 465-505 $/mt CFR. Buyers have turned to alternative Asian sources due to the high risk of non-delivery for cargoes expected from Iran from distant countries.
In the rebar segment, local prices are hovering at 545-565 $/mt ex-works, while export offers for March-April shipment have risen to 550-560 $/mt FOB. Increases were also observed in Turkey-origin offers to the European market. Demand remains cautious despite expectations of seasonal improvement due to geopolitical uncertainty.
In the merchant profiles segment, most Turkish producers raised their official March-end/April-beginning shipment offers by 10 $/mt to the 600-610 $/mt FOB band due to the rise in imported billet prices. Product-specific offers are as follows: Angles 600-610 $/mt, IPN-UPN and IPE 610-620 $/mt, Flat Bars 630-640 $/mt FOB. Some rolling mills have stopped quoting due to higher freight rates and uncertainty over shipments via the Middle East. Most global buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
On the scrap side, import prices on CFR Turkey basis are as follows: USA-origin HMS I/II 80:20 at 374-375 $/mt, UK/Europe-origin 365-370 $/mt, Baltic-origin 372-373 $/mt, and short-sea origin 352-355 $/mt. Rising oil prices and freight costs are exerting upward pressure, while Turkish producers are increasing demand for immediate cargoes.
Flat steel prices have also risen. In the domestic market, many galvanised coil producers have increased official prices to 780-785 $/mt ex-works (serious orders still acceptable at 760-775 $/mt). Export offers stand at 700-730 $/mt FOB (some reaching 750 $/mt). Painted coil local prices are 860-880 $/mt (some mills quoting 900-910 $/mt), with export offers at 840-880 $/mt FOB. Cold-rolled coil is at 660-690 $/mt ex-works domestically and has risen to an average of 655 $/mt FOB for export.
Overall, the Middle East developments are pushing costs higher across all segments, and market players are waiting for greater clarity on prices depending on how long the conflict lasts.
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