Top Tweets for #NormalForLonger
The U.S. 30-Year Yield is now 5.03%.
It has only been higher for a handful of days in the last 19 years. And it is now just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high.
If something happening today happened just four years ago (see chart), is it considered normal or abnormal? The answer is pretty obvious. Hopefully this leads to a radical shift in the policy framework. #NormalForLonger means we need to always be conservative with monetary policy
BSP’s cut today has led to lower short term yields but long term yields (BVAL) - which is where a lot of loans are benchmarked - actually inched up. So while policy rate is moving to abnormal territory again, 10 year yields are still #normalforlonger https://t.co/Dk77WmwT8D
Is a country's economic growth tied to low policy rates? This chart shows Indo's capital spending is up 29% from 2019, far outpacing the region's gains, despite elevated rates. Interesting data point for the debate on capex, growth response to rates. #NormalForLonger 🇮🇩🇵🇭
We still can't rule out a skip, considering the "red wave" surprise & a breach of crucial technical support on PHPUSD & its potential knock on effect on headline inflation. #normalforlonger https://t.co/AOE1bPlAdk
Red wave + all-time high DJIA + ~4.0% unemp & AHE + more FOMC rate cuts likely means #normalforlonger 😊
US Fed Funds futures now (Oct28) sees 3.75% FFR by end 2025 from a low of 3.0% implied rate in mid-Sept (see chart). Wont be surprised if it climbs to 4% soon. Hard to imagine RRP rate falling to 4.5% if US stops cutting at 3.75% or higher. #RealityNotTheory #NormalForLonger
Lower & on-target PHL infl prints in the nxt 12 months wont guarantee a return to the abnormally low rates of 2008 to 2021. Structural reforms #NormalForLonger RRP rates enough to bring us back to higher growth & employment path. #creativedestruction #Innovateordie
Getting full year PH inflation on target & infl expectations well anchored likely helped boost loan & GDP growth rates. 1H2024 & Household spending would have been a lot stronger if not for El Niño & massive giffen good (rice) inflation. #NormalForLonger https://t.co/wM2GMM715X
Here’s 1 among a number of factors that could put a 5.00% floor on the BSP RRP terminal rate. Average RRP rate from abnormal years 2008-2019 was < 4%. 5% is #normalforlonger https://t.co/SrR75oInec
Companies that postpone expansion until interest rates fall by 50 to 75 basis points will likely miss out on golden opportunities. Fortunately, Cebu Pacific isn't going to be one of them. #NormalForLonger
BREAKING NEWS: Cebu Pacific seals largest aircraft deal in PH history, orders 152 Airbus A321neo for P1.4T https://t.co/6Hoh7SVwh8
Should sustained improvements in PH data continue our call of a 3q2024 easing (not a premature cut like some have been advocating for in 1Q) in this PIDS event can materialize & may happen even if FOMC doesn’t cut in July. #NormalForLonger
When bright opportunities (specially in areas outside metro manila) far outweigh the cost of capital, failure to expand in a timely manner can be pretty costly. di ba sir? 😊#NormalForLonger
For the record, while we agree with BSP's current preference not to ease prematurely, our view on RRP can be verified in this PIDS forum. BSP's #Normalforlonger cuts may be contingent on the FOMC's policy stance in 2H2024. https://t.co/UEC04m37JX
Looks like #NormalForLonger isn't as dire as some had put it. Rate normalization doesn't seem harmful where fundamental econ structure is strong. Policy hikes may be contractionary within a certain #RelevantRange. Starting @ 0.5% vs @ 5.0%, impact of 300bps doesn't seem =
@realAliciaCryst It's really just #NormalForLonger which maybe why market is so chill.
More worrisome to me is how we gonna get the balance sheet "back down" to $1 Trillion like Ben promised Ron Paul
https://t.co/hwgIouECxo
Here's @benbernanke in 2010 telling @RonPaul that the Fed will get the balance sheet back under $1-trillion (1:04 mark)
And people think the @federalreserve can engineer a 'soft landing?'
https://t.co/yVHlMypFmR
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