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रिटेल महंगाई 14 साल के निचले स्तर पर: अक्टूबर में 0.25%, खाने-पीने की चीजों में राहत
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#RetailInflation #InflationRate #Economy #RetailPriceIndex #FoodPrices #EconomicRelief #IndiaEconomy #RBI #ConsumerRelief #OctoberInflation #PriceDrop #IndianMarket #EconomicUpdate #LowInflation #FinancialNews @nsitharamanoffc @FinMinIndia @RBI @PMOIndia @ceo_niti @mygovindia @PIB_India #jantv_hs
Ahead of Monday’s October inflation data, the summary of last week’s CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting offers key signals:
#CBRT #MPC #OctoberInflation
📌 The negative trend in food inflation continues, albeit at a slower pace—affecting both processed and unprocessed categories.
In my October 20 inflation forecast note, I projected food inflation at 3.85%, lower than September’s 4.65%, yet still reflecting underlying pressure. Today’s Turk-Is data, showing a 1.58% increase, paints an overly optimistic picture—driven by sharp declines in fruit prices and drops in poultry and fish. A similar moderation was observed in September’s data.
📌Seasonal increases in clothing prices are emphasized.
I estimate a monthly rise of up to 13%.
📌Price increases in durable goods are expected to be more limited compared to last month. While white goods and automobiles saw notable hikes in September, October is expected to show more restrained growth.
My October 20 note anticipated:
- Minimal increases in home appliances and entertainment products
- Around 2% monthly rise in automobile prices
❣️Accordingly, my October CPI forecast is 2.75% and the core figure at 2.45%.
October 23 Interest Rate Decision and Policy Note Expectations
#CBRT #InterestRateDecision #OctoberInflation
As I shared earlier this week, supported by the anticipated improvement in the monthly inflation trend for October, I expect the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to lower the policy rate by 150 basis points to 39% at its October 23 meeting. This would continue the rate-cutting cycle—albeit at a slower pace—following the 300 basis point cut in July and the 250 basis point cut in September. I also forecast that the asymmetric interest rate corridor will be adjusted to 42-37.5%, with its structure remaining unchanged.
Here are the key themes likely to support the rate-cut decision and areas expected to be highlighted in the policy note:
📌 In the previous note, it was emphasized that the core inflation trend had slowed in August, but food prices and sticky service components continued to exert upward pressure. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior, and global developments were cited as ongoing risks to the disinflation process.
In this week’s note, following the high September inflation, the rise in the monthly inflation trend is likely to be attributed to seasonal factors. Based on early signals for October, a renewed downward trend in core inflation may be highlighted. However, food prices and service sector rigidity are expected to remain medium-term upside risks. Upward revisions in inflation expectations from the latest survey will also be noted as a key concern.
📌 The view that demand conditions remain disinflationary is likely to be reiterated. Notably, the CBRT has recently pointed out that the transition to e-invoicing and digital platforms may be causing demand indicators to appear stronger than they actually are.
📌 Regarding monetary policy stance, general statements are expected to be maintained: that tight policy will continue until price stability is achieved; that policy rate decisions will align with interim inflation targets and reflect the necessary tightness for disinflation; and that the size of rate cuts will be reviewed cautiously, on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on inflation outlook. If inflation deviates significantly from interim targets, the policy stance may be tightened.
📌 In the face of unexpected financial market volatility, the note will likely emphasize the role of macroprudential measures—especially liquidity management tools—alongside interest rate policy.
My October inflation forecast supports the outlook for strengthening in the banking index (October CPI inflation estimate: 2.75%)
#OctoberInflation #BankingIndex #BIST
BIST Bank/Industry Ratio currently stands at 0.98, influenced in part by concerns that U.S. regional banks may pose systemic risks.
After approaching 1.30 in July, the ratio has entered a general weakening trend and has now dipped below the 1.0 threshold as of this week.
However, with the ratio nearing the May lows of 0.92–0.94, it suggests that the banking sector’s underperformance relative to the industrial sector may be losing momentum. If October inflation and the upcoming interest rate decision deliver moderate signals, a slight recovery above the 1.0 level could also be expected.
That said, this outlook assumes that next week’s domestic political agenda does not culminate in a more turbulent environment❣️
#BankIndustry #BIST
Food Pressure on Inflation Persists; However, October Inflation May Stay Below 3%
#OctoberInflation #Disinflation
Following the September inflation figure, which came in significantly above expectations at 3.23%, the downward trend in annual inflation has paused, leading to increased skepticism about the disinflation process. In this environment, we await the new inflation data and the Central Bank’s interest rate decision.
The rise in September inflation was driven by food price increases and both direct and indirect effects of the back-to-school season. Meanwhile, some persistent components of the services sector showed signs of improvement. October inflation will be particularly important in determining the direction of the core inflation trend.
Here are my expectations for the key components shaping October inflation:
📌 Food inflation remains high despite a slowdown compared to last month. My estimate is 3.85%, down from 4.65% in September. A moderate decline is possible in both unprocessed and processed food categories. I forecast unprocessed food inflation at 4.70% and processed food at 3.10%. Double-digit increases are observed in fresh vegetable prices, while fruit prices are more moderate.
📌 Durable consumer goods show limited increases in household appliances and entertainment products, while automobile prices continue to rise at around 2% monthly.
📌 In services, I expect a continued monthly decline in rents—one of the key sticky components—while food services maintain a moderate monthly inflation below 2%. Accommodation and transportation services are likely to show monthly decreases following last month’s school-season-driven increases.
📌 On the other hand, rising tobacco prices, the ongoing rally in gold, and seasonal increases in clothing prices are upward pressures on monthly inflation.
📌 The outlook for energy inflation remains moderate.
📌 In conclusion, despite my headline CPI forecast of 2.75% for October, my core inflation expectation is a more moderate 2.45%. This suggests that both headline and core inflation could continue their annual downward movement. I maintain my expectation that the Central Bank will proceed with a rate cut of 150 basis points.
October 2022 Inflation highlights #inflation
#inflationrate #octoberinflation #octoberinflationreport #nigeriainflationrate #inflationrp #nigeria #wto #who #imf #cbn #ecowas #analysts #adsr #researchers #dataanalytics #datascience #analysis #researcherslife
#JustIn
October 2019 Headline Inflation at 11.61% in October 2019 from 11.24% in Sept 2019
Food inflation at 14.09% in Oct 2019 from 13.51% in Sept.
Core Inflation at 8.88% in October 2019 from 8.94% in Sept 2019
#MoneylinewithNancy #OctoberInflation
We expect inflation rate to rise over 18% due ton increase in food prices and energy costs. #octoberinflation @josephOJzzz
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