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October Fear and Opportunity: Trading the ES Into New Highs

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Our View
After Trump got elected, I said several times that there would be a big uptick in volatility. Sure, there have been times of quiet and the VIX reacted in kind, but today is a whole new ball game. China is threatening the US, and Putin is saying, "If the US gives Ukraine Tomahawks, Russia will arm Latin America with Kalibr missiles." This is definitely one of the spookiest Octobers in a very long time.
In short order, the ES traded down to 6718.25 on Globex, rallied, and opened Thursday’s regular session at 6739.25. It rallied 26.75 points up to 6766.00 at 9:54, sold off 27 points down to 6739.00 at 10:21, then rallied 36 points up to 6775.00 going into 1:00. It had a small pullback and then rallied to a new high at 6780.25 at 2:00, dropped down to the 6776 level, and rallied up to the high of the day—exactly where I said it would—at 6785.00.
It hung around the highs and started to drift down to the 6772 level at 3:48, traded 6777.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $5.3 billion to buy, and traded 6774.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES drifted back up to 6777.50 and settled at 6775.00, up 38 points or +0.56%. The NQ settled at 35,365.75, up 287.50 points or +1.14%.
In the end, I believe the selloff was just fuel for the upside fire. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a very strong showing. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was steady at 1.317 million contracts traded.
For those of you who are not reading the paid subscription part of the Opening Print, I just want to say thank you for being a reader. I understand that this is not one of the well-known newsletters, but they will never provide the feeling or tone of the markets like I do. That feeling for the ES didn’t come from a college education, it didn’t come from a big Wall Street trading desk, and it wasn’t taught. It was self-learned from over 35 years on the trading floor. In that, I learned the true definition of "what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger,” and came out on the other side the man I am today. My view remains constant: buy the shakeouts. The ES and NQ are going a lot higher.
#OpeningPrint #Lean Our Lean
Do you know what CNW means? Crazy, Nuts, and Wild—which is exactly how the markets are acting now and probably for the foreseeable future.
The PitBull said today that he doesn’t think there’s a comparable time frame where headline news moved the S&P around this much. He went on to say he’s been buying GLD the last few days and doesn’t think it’s hit the floor yet. In the ES, he said it’s too whippy to trade and that he’s looking at buying Bitcoin. He has no problem jumping into the most volatile contracts on the board.
When I look at the ES chart, it looks like it’s in a big back-and-fill pattern that should lead to new highs, but the level of headline uncertainty is overshadowing the long side. The real uncertainty is around when Trump will meet Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, scheduled to take place in South Korea from October 30 to November 1 in Gyeongju.
The tariff 90-day truce, which began in August 2025, extends the suspension of higher tariff rates until November 10, 2025. None of this is going to be a walk in the park.
Our lean: I think we bounce in the first part of the day, but if the ES starts breaking through the 6730 level, we could see a retest of yesterday’s low. If it can get back above the 6750 level and hold, I think the ES could trade back up to the 6790–6800 level.
IMPRO : Dboy : (12:36:56 PM) : going to 6785
@MrTopStep #OpeningPrint #Now
Our View
I’m sure people may have different views on this, but Trump has been backtracking on his China tariff threats. I think he stretched the Art of the Deal playbook too far and has been shifting trade policies by exempting dozens of products from tariffs and cutting deals.
I think this is a hedge by the Trump administration that the U.S. should lower tariffs on goods it doesn’t domestically produce. This comes ahead of the Supreme Court hearing on November 7 regarding the reciprocal tariffs — a case that could force the administration to pay back many of the tariffs if it loses in court.
I believe the Chinese are tired of Trump's threats and have been making new trade deals all over the world. Time will tell, but the saber-rattling isn’t working anymore.
Here are the key dates to put on your calendar:
•Friday, October 31, 2025 – President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea.
•Friday, November 7, 2025 – Supreme Court hearing on reciprocal tariffs
•Monday, November 10, 2025 – Current deadline for the U.S.-China tariff truce
You can’t make bad trading decisions and blame the market. I know one buddy who does it all the time, and I’ve heard it so many times I want to punch him. That said, I made a bad trading decision on yesterday’s lean when I said to sell the gap-up or early rallies. But I did add this at the bottom of the lean: I don’t see the ES selling off that much, but based on the size of the ranges, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.
Does this make me happy? No.
Did I lose money? Yes, because I started selling it because I wasn’t long.
Our Lean
I don’t think Octoberphobia — or the spooky month of October — is over. There are still 9 trading days left in the month, and rest assured, there are more headlines to come.
The next vote to reopen the government is today, but Polymarket’s odds are 74% that the vote won’t pass.
Our lean: I still think the ES and NQ are going to go higher and make new all-time highs. The ES is only 0.40% from its all-time high, and the NQ is around 0.29% off its high. That’s one good buy program away.
I can’t rule out selling the early rips, but the trend is to be patient and buy the pullbacks.
Also, I’m not sure this matters, but the ES has closed higher in 6 out of the last 7 sessions.
$ES $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ
MRTOPSTEP #OpeningPrint as real as it gets
Our View
Everything is moving—Oracle jumped 1.5%, gold hit a record high of $4,043.30, the yen slumped after the election, and the yield on the 10-year note settled at 4.128%, up from 4.096% earlier in the session. The dollar index (DXY) closed higher for its third day in a row. Bitcoin (BTZ25) closed down 3.11% on Wednesday and gained 1.39% Thursday. Crude closed up 0.70% Wednesday and fell 0.95% on Globex. Live cattle has been up four sessions in a row.
I know this may seem benign, but this is just a small sample of the markets that are moving.
Our Lean
I may have been a little shy in yesterday's view, but I did say I thought it could go higher—and some of my support and resistance levels worked. That said, as we go higher, the uncertainty comes into play around the gap-up open or early push higher. While I’m still a bull guy, the ES and NQ are up so much that you never really know when selling the gap-up into new highs isn’t the high print for the day… or even longer.
Does this mean I’m turning negative? No—but when it gets this easy, there’s always a shakeout lurking.
Our lean: Sell a gap-up open—hopefully 10 to 20 points higher would be nice—and then buy pullbacks. I doubt they can pull off another NQ rip like they did yesterday. If the ES gaps lower, I’m a buyer and would also be looking for the double pump.
Support: 6795–6797, 6792, 6782–6784, 6773, 6764, 6759, 6748 (big)
Resistance: 6818, 6824, 6830, 6844, 6850, 6865
As always, use stops—learn to live another day
#OpeningPrint
View and Lean for today
December 27, 2024 | Read Online
Market Rotations Persist Amid Yield Pressure and Year-End Uncertainty

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Our View
Rotation, rotation, rotation is the name of this game. Yesterday, the YM closed higher for the fifth consecutive day, while the ES and NQ ended the session down about half a percent. Adding to the market’s weakness, jobless claims came in at 219,000, below estimates, and the yield on the 10-year note traded at its highest level since May, peaking at 6%. However, a strong 7-year notes auction provided some relief, pulling the 10-year yield back slightly to 4.58% in late-afternoon trading.
I’m looking for a silver lining, but the current price action is clearly up a day/down a day, and that’s not what the bulls are looking for. These rotations have been pretty much going on non-stop since Trump won the election and to tell the truth, it’s not very impressive. I’m still long, but the price action is not bullish. I know there are a lot of ES stops that go up to 6165, but something big needs to change and with only three sessions left in the year, it’s fair to question whether we’ll see the much-anticipated year-end rally.
Our Lean
I think it’s a very bad omen if the YM closes down for December. After a historic two-year run, Trump is walking into a nearly $37 trillion debt, a figure that’s surely set to jump after he gets into office. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are hitting two-year highs, tariff wars loom, and global conflicts show little sign of improvement. I’m still long, but I’m leery of what’s ahead.
#MrTopStep GOING LIVE in 5 min
#Stocks #Jocks #Traders #Faders $ES $SPY $SPY $QQQ $NQ $YM $DJIA #RUSSELL #RTY #VIX
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Words of Wizdom from the PitBull
Marty Schwartz
$ES #OpeningPrint
No one helps me with this.
I don’t take other people work.
I’m not always right.
But I try my best…
$ES $SPY #MrTopStep #OpeningPrint
Some people think I just f-off all day but they don't know that I have written a new letter for almost 30 years... this was todays ES call
$ES $SPY #OpeningPrint
Our Lean
Our lean, there is a good chance we see some short-covering today. Buy the early pullbacks and sell the rallies.
$ES $NQ $SPY #OpeningPrint #Lean
To the premium subs of the MTS Opening Print. My lean was to sell a higher open and the furues have dropped 133 points. I think two things; try and sell the ES for a scalp at the 3996 closing area with a tight stop or be patient and but a dip.
$SPY $ES $NQ $DOW #OpeningPrint
Has anyone been reading the Opening Print and if so what do you think?
$NQ I caught this bad boy and still long. Read today's #OpeningPrint
#ES #NQ
Im up money but...
IMPRO: Dboy :(3:19:24 PM) : I called this totally wrong today in the #OpeningPrint
#ES #OpeningPrint #Today
Our lean, I can't rule out selling a gap up and buying the pull back ideally I'm still a buyer of weakness. 3330 is where I think the ES is headed
#ES #OpeningPrint #Today
The other part is while the
democrats and republicans have yet to reach a deal on the new stimulus program my guess is they come to terms and that will send the ES even higher. (continued)
#ES #OpeningPrint #Today
Our view, I don't think the rally is sustainable but I do not see a top right now. The dollar has rallied and gold feels toppy. If the ES gaps high I ordinarily would look to sell the open but with so many buy stops above I'm hesitant. (continued)
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