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#POPGUN #Candlestick #ChartMagic
๐ก๐The Popgun Candle Formation consists of three key candles:
A small inside bar (inner candle)
A larger mother bar (previous candle)
A significantly larger expansion bar (breakout candle)
๐ When the formation breaks upward, the probability of price returning to the buy trigger (entry level) depends on multiple factors.
1. Statistical Perspective
Studies on inside-bar breakouts suggest that there is a 50โ70% probability that the price will retrace to the entry point before continuing in either direction. This is due to:
Liquidity Grab: Markets tend to retest nearby liquidity zones before moving further.
False Breakouts: In uncertain market conditions, fake breakouts often lead to a pullback.
Momentum Strength: If the expansion bar lacks volume, a price retracement is more likely.
2. Key Influencing Factors
The probability of a pullback depends on the following factors:
Volume: Higher breakout volume reduces the likelihood of a retest.
Market Trend: In strong trends, immediate retests are less frequent.
Support & Resistance: If the buy trigger is near a strong support level, a retest is more likely.
3. Estimated Probability
Based on historical price behavior and technical analysis:
60โ70% probability that the price will return to the buy trigger.
30โ40% probability that the price will continue upward without a retest.
๐Downward Breakout Probability Analysis
When the Popgun Formation breaks downward, the probability of a return to the sell trigger (entry level) differs slightly due to market psychology and order flow.
1. Statistical Findings
For a downward breakout, data suggests:
65โ75% probability that price will retest the sell trigger.
25โ35% probability that price continues dropping without a retest.
โWhy is the retest probability slightly higher in a downward breakout?
Stop-Hunt Behavior:
Many traders place stops above the breakout point, making a price retracement more likely.
Short-Covering (Pullback Buying):
When price drops, buyers often step in, causing a temporary retracement.
Market Structure:
Downside moves often have more retracements due to profit-taking by short sellers.
2. Key Factors Affecting Retest Probability
Strong Bearish Momentum โ Less chance of pullback
Breakout Below Key Support Level โ More chance of pullback (to confirm resistance)
High Volume Breakdown โ Less chance of pullback
3. Please find Final Summary: Up vs. Down Breakout Probabilities attached.
Elliott Waves and Popgun Bar Pattern Correlation
The Elliott Wave Theory describes market cycles in a structured wave pattern, consisting of five impulsive waves (1-5) followed by three corrective waves (A-B-C). The Popgun Bar Pattern, on the other hand, is a candlestick-based breakout pattern that signals a surge in volatility.
These two concepts can be correlated when identifying market phases and predicting strong breakouts.
1. How the Popgun Bar Pattern Fits into Elliott Waves
The Popgun Bar Pattern often appears at key turning points within Elliott Waves:
Wave 2 or Wave 4 Retracements:Inside Bars form as the market consolidates before continuing the main trend.
The Expansion Bar signals the resumption of the impulse move (Wave 3 or Wave 5).
Start of Wave 3 (Strongest Move):A Popgun Bar can serve as a confirmation of Wave 3 beginning.
Wave 3 is typically the most explosive wave, aligning with the Expansion Bar concept.
End of Wave 5 (Potential Reversals):A bearish Popgun Bar at the end of Wave 5 can signal trend exhaustion.
If the Expansion Bar breaks downward, it may confirm the start of Wave A in the corrective phase.
2. Combining Elliott Waves and Popgun for Trade Entries
Bullish Setup in an Uptrend
Identify a Wave 2 or Wave 4 retracement (ABC pullback).
Look for a Popgun Bar Pattern forming near Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% or 61.8%).
Enter long on the breakout of the Expansion Bar, expecting a strong Wave 3 or Wave 5.
Place stop-loss below the Inside Bar or Mother Bar.
Bearish Setup in a Downtrend
Identify a Wave B or end of Wave 5, where reversals typically occur.
Look for a bearish Popgun Bar forming at key resistance levels.
Enter short if the Expansion Bar breaks downward.
Place stop-loss above the Inside Bar or Mother Bar.
3. Key Advantages of Combining Both Approaches
โ
Confirms Elliott Wave Structure โ Popgun Bar helps validate impulse/corrective waves.
โ
Early Entry for Wave 3 & 5 โ The pattern acts as a trigger for strong momentum waves.
โ
Provides Precise Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels โ Works well with Fibonacci levels.
โ
Identifies Key Market Reversals โ Helps catch the start of corrective waves.
Conclusion
By combining Elliott Wave Theory with the Popgun Bar Pattern, traders can enhance their trade timing and breakout confirmation. The Popgun Bar serves as a momentum trigger, confirming wave formations and improving accuracy in trading impulsive and corrective moves.
๐

$COTI #COTI #popgun
COTI log H12TF๐ซ PopGun detected//
This Candle formation has the power to rise up to tripple its size &more/ Staying above the close of this expansion bar=Buy Trigger is mandatory/ After reaching those targets there is a certain percentage revisiting the Buy Trigger.
๐ Find Targets for further rise on chart, as well as Buy Trigger Returnal
๐Article on Pop Guns will open your eyes for a candlestick formation I am working with since 5 years

5:45 am Mr Fix it on #TiorrChannel1 Spain March 14 2023 7:56 am hear the #BTDRadio Block Party with Greg Walsh https://t.co/zEtRo3n8NH thanks #OnlyRockRadio #CountingDownFromZeroto1 #joeviglionemedia #davidminehan #WoolyMammothStudio #PopGun #NewGhosts @tdawn1 #filmmusic #Pop

@sentdefender Maybe the pilot(s) can get a movie or documentary deal out of shooting down the #ChineseSpyBalloon.
#PopGun?
Is the razor going to be used again? โ LeoFinance https://t.co/5RLjOYN19O #bitcoin #cryptotrading #popgun #charts #leofinance #hive
Le ยซย popย ยป dโun bouchon de champagne peut franchir la vitesse supersonique (Mach 2) https://t.co/XS2taiDDlV via La Champagne de Sophie Claeys
Pop Gun: la parodia de Top Gun hecha por tripulaciones de F14 https://t.co/ny28KB7tgN #TopGun #PopGun #aerotrastornados #avgeek
@SmithKernel @TonyofCJWU @bmstewart2004 @CcibChris It wouldn't have stood a chance against our 4.5" !! ๐๐ #popgun
@SeanBradbery Highway to his comfort zone. #PopGun
$DAX #XETRA from monthly #Popgun view: MPG points 13460-12341=1119. Min target 13460+1119=14579. Mostly they are going much further. But... one day will come back to the roots - min 13460 @XetraDax30 @Cheftrader1 @Paul91114 @Sebasti72183537

#SongsfortheCommunity comes to a close with #POPGUN today at 5 p.m.! Performing an original composition, they ask, "What Would Love Do?" and in a time when we need to dig deep to find love for ourselves and our neighbors, what could be more important?
โก๏ธ https://t.co/vI7P9tkWtc
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