Top Tweets for #QEBernanke

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.

about 2 years ago

@TheStalwart Forward guidance at the time of #QEB #QEBernanke was helpful to trap and restrain rates despite nascent recoveries. Citibank was so insolvent from it 80X leverage with its off balance sheet shenanigans that you need to curve cheap and steep for a long while.

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.

@PolarityRadio

about 2 years ago

We watch flows to confirm they match our primary thesis, which they are now. The economy is weakening globally from a stronger dollar that troughed in June of 2007 under #QEB #QEBernanke. The dollar is setting up Asian Contagion 2.0, LTCM 2.0 Y2K 2.0 and GFC 2.0 Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Brazil Are being destabilized by the $. Citibank can't survive the Trifecta of, CRE, EM and bottom 1/4 US consumers all failing at once. XLRE is the weakest and most leveraged sector. The final market based catalyst for the economic rollover is XLV over taking XLY or XLK or XLC. XLU XLP XLV are ~1/3rd of SPY. XLC XLK XLY are ~1/2 of SPY. Capital is losing it coefficient of viscosity and flowing out faster from cyclicals to non-cyclicals. The stronger the dollar the faster the exsanguination of cyclical capital. C can not survive. @TuttleCapital @MarioNawfal @SamanthaLaDuc @TimmerFidelity @TheStalwart @lisaabramowicz1 @LizAnnSonders @tomkeene @fundstrat @SamanthaLaDuc @LukeGromen

PolarityRadio's tweet photo. We watch flows to confirm they match our primary thesis, which they are now.

The economy is weakening globally from a stronger dollar that troughed in June of 2007 under #QEB #QEBernanke.

The dollar is setting up Asian Contagion 2.0, LTCM 2.0 Y2K 2.0 and GFC 2.0

Indonesia
Pakistan
Nigeria
Brazil

Are being destabilized by the $.

Citibank can't survive the Trifecta of, CRE, EM and bottom 1/4 US consumers all failing at once.

XLRE is the weakest and most leveraged sector.

The final market based catalyst for the economic rollover is XLV over taking XLY or XLK or XLC.

XLU XLP XLV are ~1/3rd of SPY.
XLC XLK XLY are ~1/2 of SPY.

Capital is losing it coefficient of viscosity and flowing out faster from cyclicals to non-cyclicals.
The stronger the dollar the faster the exsanguination of cyclical capital.

C can not survive.

@TuttleCapital
@MarioNawfal
@SamanthaLaDuc
@TimmerFidelity
@TheStalwart
@lisaabramowicz1 @LizAnnSonders @tomkeene @fundstrat @SamanthaLaDuc @LukeGromen

243

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.

@PolarityRadio

about 2 years ago

@BurggrabenH In this case, he is wrong. M2 growth will be insufficient to hold up gold and crypto as the dollar rises further above the low reached 17 years ago under #QEBernanke.

172

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.

@PolarityRadio

about 2 years ago

The 18Y rise of the $ from #QEBernanke June 2007 low is destroying liquidity in EM. Indonesia 4th, Brazil 7th largest countries are melting and they will export more and import less. No one should take lightly the preliminary 0.86% 1Q24 GDP drag. It will only get worse and should take 1Q24 GDP closer to 1% when revisions show up. 2Q24 will be under 2% and 3Q24 will be under 1% and the recession will start in 4Q24. Rate cuts will weaken the economy. Cuts will reduce bank income and reduce lending. Inventories will be worked down to self fund. Lower inventories drive unemployment up and they drive wages and confidence down. @MarioNawfal @SamanthaLaDuc @TuttleCapital @TheStalwart @Kathleen_Hays @tomkeene @tracyalloway @zerohedge @robin_j_brooks

PolarityRadio's tweet photo. The 18Y rise of the $ from #QEBernanke June 2007 low is destroying liquidity in EM.
Indonesia 4th, Brazil 7th largest countries are melting and they will export more and import less.

No one should take lightly the preliminary 0.86% 1Q24 GDP drag.

It will only get worse and should take 1Q24 GDP closer to 1% when revisions show up.

2Q24 will be under 2% and 3Q24 will be under 1% and the recession will start in 4Q24.

Rate cuts will weaken the economy.

Cuts will reduce bank income and reduce lending.
Inventories will be worked down to self fund.

Lower inventories drive unemployment up and they drive wages and confidence down.

@MarioNawfal
@SamanthaLaDuc @TuttleCapital @TheStalwart @Kathleen_Hays @tomkeene @tracyalloway @zerohedge @robin_j_brooks

281

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.

@PolarityRadio

about 2 years ago

The FOMC is totally unaware of their impact on markers. The FOMC has unlearned some of #QEBernanke's lessons. They are going back to Greenspan's catastrophic 2000 policy actions. Even if you don't understand the mechanics of why these axioms are true and tradeable, at least allow them to inform your universe of observation. Axioms. Lower FF rates, in the intermediate time frame cause; Lower money supply Lower insurance premiums Lower rents. Lower equity concentration. Lower inflation Less bank lending Lower wage gains Looser labor conditions Lower NGDP. Lower cyclical and tech equity prices. Lower sentiment, (The FOMC has a pivot point it's November 5, 2024, and their principal concern is to hold up sentiment until then). Tighter MBS spreads Wider credit spreads Lower bank book value. More bank failures A larger escape valve for capital from cyclicals to non-cyclicals. New home builders have an avalanche of capital flowing out of used homes that are deteriorating, getting more expensive to maintain and insure. ITB accommodates the proper features needed by home buyers and are less expensive to maintain and insure. Smaller ESG homes will be the trend over time and society will shift trillions of home owners' equity from existing homes to ITB @MarioNawfal @SamanthaLaDuc @Kathleen_Hays @jasonfurman @TheStalwart @TuttleCapital Fed Rate-Cut Debate Shifts From When Toward If on Inflation Data https://t.co/xOejQye2iW

866

Top Tweets for #QEBernanke

Last Seen Hashtags on Sotwe

Trends for you

Most Popular Users