Top Tweets for #QLMonthly
π Unemployment is once again an accurate indicator of labor market slack, and the underlying fundamentals point to a BUOYANT labor market. Some rises and dips but steady in the medium view.
More #QLmonthly: https://t.co/g16ePyEsiv
coauthor cred: @KathrinPhD
#QLMonthly Update brings our first gloomy news in three quarters. A sign of tightening? π
π§οΈ Layoffs to non-employment rose in June & July.
π§οΈ Prime-age job finding rates fell across the board. π But quits hit their 2nd-highest reading in 2 years.
What's the verdict? 1/n
#jobsday puzzle: 0.8ppt June drop in prime age Epop. Answers: #QLmonthly data. Layoffs to unemployment rose by almost 50%, and the propensity to exit LF (not count as Unemp.) after layoff rose almost 50%. We still view labor market as stable, see briefing:
https://t.co/lpVa7rJCHX
#QLmonthly May 2026: Labor market remains buoyant and stable.
π Layoffs re-approaching historic lows
π Quits stable β and clearly above 2025 levels
π Job finding rates steady; non-participant finding rates at all-time highs
No red flags in the flows data. 1/n
#QLmonthly updated with February data. Quiet Blackout thread from me. Just the facts: 1) Layoffs to unemployment remain down from 2024-25 high. Quits stable. https://t.co/g16ePyDUsX 1/n
Unemployment is loosing ground as π indicator. Today, 2/3 of newly employed were never even counted as unemployed. Ignore the labels: itβs easier for a prime-age person to find a job today than in the 2010s. Finding rates improved over 2025 to 2022-23 levels. #QLmonthly 1/2
Today's 4.6 unemployment is as expected if you've followed our analysis. We had flat Urate in H2 of 2024 due to Labor Force exits + flat Urate in H1 2025 due to a pause in our CPS layoff measure. LFP now caught up to neutral and our CPs measure of layoffs to U rising. #QLmonthly
Layoffs: highest monthly rate since March 2021
β 2025 now has the 3 highest readings since the recovery began
β H1 2025 pause appears over as layoffs trend up July-Sep.
π Sep JOLTS still a week away, but #QLMonthly CPS quits & layoffs now updated through September 2025.
Blackout β facts only today, analysis later.
Highlights: layoffs rising, quits now falling. Details and graphs π
#LaborMarket #Quits #Layoffs
The latest #QLmonthly trends suggest a pause in rising layoffs and a potential reversal in quits, some whispers of labor market resilience. Could changes in immigration be influencing these shifts? Full analysis: https://t.co/Qgswmj9SOL 1/3
#QLmonthly updated w/ August. Blackout = only facts: (1) layoffs and job finding steady; (2) quits continue rise starting March 25' after years of decline; (3) Share of laid-off workers exiting the labor force continues to sharply fall after rapid rise Q3 24'-Q1 25'. links -> 1/n
#jobsday Unemployment β¬οΈ because labor force participation (LFP) β¬οΈ? #QLmonthly has been tracking this. Chart below is prime age U/pop: actual (blue), holding key LFP flows constant (red). tldr; lower LFP held down unemployment Jan 2025-now. Now two lines cross: no bias from LFP!
#QLmonthly July Update: Share of laid-off workers exiting the labor force is dropping to normal levels. Labor force exits hid the cooling marketβnow unemployment is catching up. Meanwhile, quits to non-employment stopped long decline & have been rising this year𧡠[1/5]
![mander_michaud's tweet photo. #QLmonthly July Update: Share of laid-off workers exiting the labor force is dropping to normal levels. Labor force exits hid the cooling marketβnow unemployment is catching up. Meanwhile, quits to non-employment stopped long decline & have been rising this year𧡠[1/5] https://t.co/GYj6qUC9FI](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GyFc2TXWYAIG8J2.jpg)
Thanks to organizers and participants at NBER CRIW. Great scientific feedback plus we met many who follow #QLmonthly and are using our data for policy and research. By request, I'll be working on a newsletter/ email option to know when the data and analysis are updated.
Big #qlmonthly update: quits markedly rise for the first time in over 3 yrs. Layoffs flat. Job finding up. COOLING HAS STALLED (reversed?) Not a monthly blip- 6mo average. Tune in (CRIW #NBER @nberpubs youtube link) for more from Kathrin @ 3:20 EST https://t.co/qr0UQBv4Ql 1/2
#QLmonthly has been noting increased labor force exits after layoff. Check out the exit blip in today's #jobsday release. Don't want to make much of a single month but it backs up the waning attachment we have been seeing in QL and helps account for the flat u-rate reading.
#QLmonthly now with April data and on FRED! πPleasure to work w/ the team @stlouisfed to ease access to these data. Check out share of workers leaving the labor force after a layoff climbing ever higher. Worry or return to trend? 1/2 https://t.co/WO06YXGWTm
Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out @KathrinPhD thread and our monthly briefing. (1/2)
#QLmonthly updated with March data. Declining job finding rates and quits signal a weaker labor market. This month we explore why the share of laid-off workers exiting the labor force is at an all-time high.
https://t.co/uyA49dL4bY
#QLmonthly updated with March data. Declining job finding rates and quits signal a weaker labor market. This month we explore why the share of laid-off workers exiting the labor force is at an all-time high.
https://t.co/uyA49dL4bY
#QLmonthly updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. https://t.co/5cfux16Qsa
We may have buried the lede in this article. Before #jobsday I want to be clear that our data show a stabilization or even improvement in labor markets after the accelerated cooling this year ->August. My view: the risk that labor markets worsen is now low.
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