Top Tweets for #SCurved
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.
tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: https://t.co/U0Ne4XSglG East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.
Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...
In the coming decades, all of East Asia’s main states will experience an era of depopulation, making it more difficult for them to generate economic growth, mobilize armed forces, and extend influence abroad, writes Nicholas Eberstadt.
https://t.co/V8nK4Jl2IW
@IgnatiusPost @keithrichburg #MustRead @washingtonpost #EditorialBoard—#China's #SCurved Slowdown, #Xi's rising risks + threat to #Taiwan & resulting #DecadeOfMaximumDanger.
Big #PRC insights @scmallaby/@crampell/@LHSummers/@MaxBoot/
@joshrogin/@IgnatiusPost/@keithrichburg!
https://t.co/ueiPtcqKwB #THREAD
#MustRead @Wapo #EditorialBoard roundup traces #PRC & #SCurved Slowdown, #Xi’s rising risks + threat to #Taiwan & the resulting #DecadeOfMaximumDanger.
Cogent insights from @scmallaby/@crampell/@LHSummers/@MaxBoot/@joshrogin/@IgnatiusPost/@keithrichburg!
https://t.co/ueiPtcqKwB
All true, sadly.
#CCP's inhuman #OneChildPolicy may well go down in #history as the worst national strategic error save major wars of choice.
#China's resulting terminal #demographic decline is accelerating #PRC #SCurved Slowdown faster than any #GreatPower previously:
https://t.co/xCkTl2ItkW
Correct on the diagnosis, wrong on the solution. Japan maintained some of the highest level of education and they spend significant money on child care. When your population is falling, that fast, these measures are just band-aids on a gunshot
Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity/@BakerInstitute & I saw #China's #SCurved Slowdown coming: https://t.co/xCkTl2J1au
Years from now, "Guns vs. Canes" challenges may finally enable #USChina "Geriatric Peace" & even catch-up cooperation: https://t.co/FyPtuwFu97
But first we must "Run the Gauntlet"——through the 2020s Decade of Maximum Danger! https://t.co/yzaPL5Js6Q
1/9
I've been arguing for well over a decade that the reason most economists thought that China's GDP would overtake that of the US in the next decade or two was because they misunderstood China's growth model and the way it "created" GDP.
https://t.co/58lKh9feqy via @WSJ
#Xi's "Chinese Dream" increasingly faces the reality of #China's #SCurved #slowdown...
Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity's @BakerInstitute & I began writing about this in 2011: https://t.co/QHWUttpdbn
More here: https://t.co/D1I9JsE6uv
Honored Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I are featured by @Hadavas in @ForeignPolicy roundup on #PRC power trajectory!
https://t.co/EMLhnpThQv
Check out our early analysis from 2011 on #China's #SCurved #slowdown:
https://t.co/ngkBVXZ6h4
Recommendations:
https://t.co/0q5n5zxCr6
We're in the #DecadeOfDanger (or slightly longer).
That's the #WindowOfVulnerability b/f full #SCurved #Slowdown by #ChinaUnderXi & US+Allies rallying.
Climax likely = max #Taiwan Scenario threat b/f 2030 @ #Xi/#CCP/#PRC's #peak relative power.
#MyTake:
https://t.co/pZKMpjWARB
Then there’s timing.
Since 2011, G.Collins @BakerInstitute & I’ve argued #China’s (1) an already-arrived #GreatPower (2) experiencing #SCurved #slowdown:
https://t.co/ngkBVXZ6h4
BOTH are true.
We’re now in #DecadeOfDanger—#Xi seeks best shot at glory:
https://t.co/FhkNo5LPYa
The downside risks are immense—for all concerned.
https://t.co/bUqvrbWLMW
As Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote for our research website @China_SignPost in 2011, the #SCurved slowdown in rate of overall #PRC #power growth imposes mounting headwinds.
https://t.co/ngkBVXZ6h4
Blanchette @ForeignAffairs outlines precisely #DecadeOfDanger+ US, Allies/Partners & global system face.
+ #SCurved trajectory: https://t.co/ngkBVXZ6h4
SOLUTION: #HoldTheLine thru 2035. Gabe Collins @CES_Baker_Inst @BakerInstitute @RiceUNews & I explain:
https://t.co/FhkNo5LPYa
#China's #demographic "time bomb" underscores the #SCurved #Slowdown that imperils Beijing's long march to overturning the US-upheld rules-based order in #IndoPacific.
US/Allies/Partners can & should #HoldTheLine!
G. Collins & I explain @BakerInstitute:
https://t.co/FhkNo5LPYa
“#China’s growth has been a long, positive story but now gravity has hit,’’ @TheresaAFallon said, with the virus arising as ‘‘a kind of black swan that underlines how different China is.’’
https://t.co/GyzOqCxz1q
Headwinds mounting, China's #SCurved #Slowdown is growing...
@michaelxpettis "...and the greater the macroeconomic financial distress costs it will have to absorb."
Sounds like #China's undergoing #SCurved #slowdown!
https://t.co/8QKQIVymoG
https://t.co/ngkBVXZ6h4
https://t.co/9XDFuiTphT
https://t.co/CqX8NXVx3L
Factory activity in #China unexpectedly grows in November as domestic demand picked up on accelerated stimulus measures. However, the growth was small, and export demand remained sluggish. #TradeTalks #tradewar @AndrewSErickson @BonnieGlaser @prchovanec https://t.co/t3b2FFTYka
@melissakchan The #SCurved #Slowdown #China's experiencing is an extreme version of the trajectory many great powers have experienced:
https://t.co/ngkBVYgH8C
No PRC citizen under 40 has experienced a prolonged recession, so expectations still outpace reality. But a downshifting is underway.
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