Top Tweets for #SuperForecasting
“The five year old’s popsicle is going to drip on me”
<2 seconds later>
Five year old trips, whacks my arm with a melty popsicle
#Superforecasting
Forecasting is a learnable skill. Join our next public workshop on 10 & 11 March, 12:00 to 2:30 pm ET. Details: https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO Grab a seat: https://t.co/JBvmwv6eF9 #Superforecasting
Measurable outcomes: over 3 months and 178 questions, grads improved 29% on average and were 33% more accurate than an untrained cohort. Online Superforecasting workshop: 10 & 11 Mar 2026, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. https://t.co/JBvmwv6eF9 #Superforecasting
Forecasting is a learnable skill. Next public workshop: 20 & 21 January 2026 (12:00-2:30 pm EST), online. Register: https://t.co/AxQgVN22dn More dates: https://t.co/7qg3bhWWrm #Superforecasting
“To be a top-flight forecaster, a growth mindset is essential.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
#TetlockTuesday #Superforecasting #Superforecasters
Join the next Superforecasting workshop (19&20 November): https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO
The wind looks set to drop at 6-7pm.
Could we see the Cup run under lights tonight at Kardinia Park?
#SuperForecasting 🔮💡
Indefinite delay at Geelong races with all patrons evacuated from the Cup marquees due to wind which is expected to get wild in the next hour.
"The decision threshold is fundamentally about cost-benefit analysis: How many false positives are you willing to accept in order to avoid missing a real threat or opportunity?"
#Superforecasting
New on Substack: how to turn probabilities into decisions. Set the threshold first, then use the forecast.
Read: https://t.co/a1szCxY5cM
Two days to go.
Superforecasting Workshop, 17 and 18 September, 12:00 pm to 2:30 pm EDT.
Learn the methods that sharpen forecasts and improve decisions.
Details and registration: https://t.co/7qg3bhWWrm
#forecasting #decisionmaking #Superforecasting
Teams that train with us see measurable gains in accuracy, calibration, and group judgment. Past participants call the sessions “invaluable” and “applicable across domains.”
Live, virtual on 17–18 September 2025, 12:00 to 14:30 EDT.
More: https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO
#Superforecasting
my coins want uppies #superforecasting
mog coin crypto currency still the best ROI on ethereum from here
#SuperForecasting
The poll has closed. Superforecasters’ median year for an IAEA-style AI regulator is 2051. If you expect it sooner, what moves the needle?
See full report on AI Governance: https://t.co/gJEmyILs3e
#aigovernance #superforecasting
When will the world get a treaty‑backed regulator for oversight of frontier AI systems (think IAEA for AI)?
Vote below.
We’ll share the Superforecaster median and the full report after the poll closes. #aigovernance
$Root
REMEMBER
none of you bought it
none of yow own enough of it
and specifically none of you had 8m in orders in .
#EagleEye the only authority on #SuperForecasting in #Crypto
DO NOT FORGET THO. all staff go home at some point each day
RINSE and REPEAT 00:00 u do what?
i did say its #altseaon. and some of you are waking up to that realisation.
CRO then XLM then MAVIA then PENGU, soon it will be ROOT
etc etc. but your YOUTUBER has PTSD
PAST
TRADING
SUCCESS
DYSFUNCTION
New on Good Judgment’s Substack: “Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture” https://t.co/oOHSI0n6Co
#Superforecasting #GoodJudgment
Reading "Superforecasting" by Tetlock & Gardner—key takeaway so far: Beware of relying on averages. They can hide critical nuances in predictions. #Forecasting #Superforecasting $hims $evo $msft $goog $amzn $tsla
Superforecasters have consistently outperformed futures markets—as reported by the Financial Times.
Want to learn how?
Join our #Superforecasting Workshop on 20 & 22 May 2025.
🔗 https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO
“There is no reason to stop at 3 or 4 perspectives... In theory, there is no limit. So the best metaphor for this process is the vision of the dragonfly.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
https://t.co/ndYIkREMEU
#Superforecasting #GoodJudgment
“Few things are either certain or impossible.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
https://t.co/ndYIkREMEU
#Superforecasting #GoodJudgment
Since 2024, Superforecasters’ takes on Fed rate decisions have outperformed the futures markets—by nearly 30% on Brier scores. When it comes to monetary policy, do human forecasters have an edge over Wall Street? #Superforecasting #Finance #Forecasting
@JoelSuss on the @FinancialTimes:
Superforecasters (@superforecaster) continue to beat the market.
"A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to Fed interest rate decisions"
https://t.co/QBaVlCEs1c
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