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Here’s Kpler’s take on the Strait of Hormuz reopening scenario. They predict that as long as Iran maintains control, any increase in transit volume will be strictly limited. They’ve pointed out several key constraints: 1) Delays and uncertainty caused by the new transit permit process. 2) Rising insurance and compliance issues due to the mandate to pass through Iranian territorial waters. 3) The potential need to pay transit fees to the IRGC, which is a sanctioned entity by the US. 4) Complex routing compared to the standard IMO traffic separation schemes. Kpler expects these factors to set a hard ceiling on traffic. While volume might recover gradually, capacity utilization will be structurally capped. Under this Iranian control scenario, they see transit volume peaking at only about 40-50% of the Gulf’s total export capacity. #oott #iran