Top Tweets for #UKtraders

A Major Shift in Fed Policy: Expectations for Rate Hikes Resurface (The Biggest Negative) Recent remarks by Fed officials have completely shattered the market’s hopes for rate cuts. Probability of a December Rate Hike Soars: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have recently adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation risks remain persistent. According to CME FedWatch data, the market’s probability of a Fed rate hike in December has surged from 60% to 89%. Expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back across the board: major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs have even removed their full-year 2026 rate cut forecasts from their latest reports, pushing the timeline for the first rate cut directly to June 2027. Soaring holding costs: The continued strength of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, leading to a massive exit from speculative long positions. 2. Unexpected Easing of Tensions in the Middle East: The geopolitical risk premium—a key factor that previously supported gold’s rally—is rapidly fading as safe-haven demand subsides. U.S.-Iran Peace Roadmap Agreed Upon: According to the latest market rumors and multiple media reports, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland have made breakthrough progress, with both sides agreeing on a roadmap to reach a final peace agreement within 60 days. Hormuz Strait Crisis Averted: As Washington issued temporary oil sales licenses to Iran, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal, and crude oil prices have continued to decline on expectations of restored supply. This has not only directly drained “geopolitical safe-haven buying” from the gold market, but the decline in crude oil prices has also alleviated global expectations of hyperinflation. #XAUUSD #FED