Top Tweets for #VIXpiration
The last three Midterm Elections $SPX fell 10%+
2014 + 2018 started September #OPEX ✍️
⭕️ SEP OPEX 🏖️ on your calendar
🥐 fresh TASTY crumbs on @tastyliveshow 🍒
#OPex Week 🗓️ Next Week
Sep 16th #Fed meeting + #VIXpiration
Sep 18th #OPex
Expect #vol compression ➿ with 👸🦥 flows remaining supportive 👉 UNTIL expiration 👈
If the market unpins heading into Friday ⚠️
@jam_croissant with @JermalChandler + @TraderMikeyB
🥐 fresh "Tasty" crumbs
Midterm Elections since 2002 have shown relatively weak periods August - November
Worth ✍️ ... declines tied to event #volatility around Midterms appear to be occurring ~1 month forward
This makes August 19th #VIXpiration + #OPex a particularly important time to be cautious ⚠️
@jam_croissant on 🍒 @tastyliveshow
Full Interview
https://t.co/tAwg2RENjf
🥐 fresh crumbs
The Summer of George ☀️ is coming to an end
VOL is compressed (VIX 14.65) heading into August OPex week and a window 🪟 opens Aug 19th ⭕️ #VIXpiration
If we see volatility ~10% decline August - September
Expect the Administration to squeeze the market into midterms
After the midterms, there is less incentive for Trump + Bessent to hold the market together
20%-25% decline possible post-midterms into Q1 2027 ... but
This is a feature of this Administration 👏
"Take it down, to take it up"
In an Economy driven by the market, this Administration will respond to a major decline with Liquidity 🌊
QE, Large Scale Asset Purchases, driving markets + inflation higher
@jam_croissant on @tastyliveshow
Full Interview https://t.co/FdRIVw7flz
🥐 fresh "TASTY" crumbs
Momentum names have only a short window of support into August expiration
- Circle ⭕️ August 19th #VIXpiration on your calendar
- Beyond that #vol expansion
The Administration is setting up to Print & Buy Equities
Flows are supportive now, but will start turning 🔀 in August. Prepare for meaningful #volatility to the downside 📉 into November midterms
@jam_croissant with @tastyliveshow
Full Interview : https://t.co/rxKOuRgXtk
@bicer_faru72456 @jam_croissant 🥐mentioned flows are supportive into August #OPex
What does this mean?
- Expect the chop at the index level for ~30 days
- Rotation out of tech continues
- Mark ⭕️ Aug 19th #VIXpiration on your calendar
Flows become less supportive into midterms + #vol becomes unpinned
The 🪟 is open #VIXpiration
@AdithiaKusno $MU 👸🦥 as expected rallied to the 20 day into #VIXpiration 🪟
... appears to be rejecting off the 20 day, similar to July 9th
@hammer_speaks @iBigMeh @D_Builder95 We may see a clean decline without a bounce, or a rally to the 20 day into VIXpiration
Why it's always best to be aware of the flows and position for the decline when everyone else is bullish ✍️
#VIXpiration 🪟 Tomorrow
$NDQ approaching the 20 day
... 🪟 opens tomorrow #VIXpiration
@D_Builder95 #Opex for stock options
#VIXpiration for VIX options
... we often see the most volatility after VIX options expire ✍️
How to use the 👸 Vanna 🦥 Charm Indicator
https://t.co/jqjAqO7mFz
Always ⭕ Expirations on your 🗓️
👸🦥 go "on holiday ⛱️" when options expire, which opens the 🪟 to more volatile moves in the market, up or down
#VIXpiration 🪟 ( typically the Wednesday before monthly OpEx ) is a time to be cautious ⚠️
Why? ... Because structural Vanna 👸 & Charm 🦥 flows are on holiday ⛱️ (dealers are no longer buying back stock)
Patience Pays ✍️
Volatility frequently occurs in the 2-3 day period before 👸 Vanna + 🦥 Charm return
I have learned the hard way to be patient ... and wait for their return from 🏖️
What are 👸Vanna + 🦥 Charm?
Vanna (👸): Measures how an option's delta changes with shifts in implied volatility (IV). When implied volatility drops near options expiration, dealers short on options buy back hedges to stay delta-neutral, which boosts prices.
Charm (🦥): Tracks how delta changes over time. As options expiration approaches, out-of-the-money options lose delta rapidly, prompting dealers to buy back shares or futures. This creates a "charm bid" that reduces downside volatility and often lifts prices
Know the Trend 🐻🐂 before you Trade
Back testing 👸🦥 gives people the impression that the market will ALWAYS move higher on Vanna Charm weeks. This is not always the case.
While this is often true in an uptrend, 👸🦥 flows have a different effect in bearish periods.
In bearish periods look for long 👸🦥 opportunities in Inverse ETFs (especially crypto), and look for short opportunities in stocks trading near resistance as we approach the 🪟
Summer of George ☀️
The index grinds higher or enters a period of range-bound consolidation, and may not follow 👸🦥 flows accurately
This is due to dispersion among index constituents.... Some stocks are up ⬆️ TSLA, NVDA, MSFT while others are down ⬇️ META, AAPL, AMZN
Disclaimer ⚠️
Do not blindly using this indicator as a buy / sell signal! Always set a stop % loss before you enter a trade!
The flows are meant to be a tool used in confluence with support levels and seasonality.
The dates are calculated, and mostly accurate on daily time-frames. Yes, they print one day early for crypto, and that is intentional
Certain risk assets & crypto follow the flows more closely than others, so it is worth spending time finding those that follow the flows
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