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Thinking about the parameters for winning or losing the war for 🇺🇦, a dark thought crossed my mind. As the joint chief commander of 🇺🇦 warned of 2 Mio Mobiks / 29 Mio 🇷🇺 men in fighting age, I figured Putin calculates 44 Mio 🇺🇦s & their ressources against the losses of 🇷🇺 1/X

ANALYSIS HOW WILL THE WAR END, MARCH 11 2024 Part 1/2 Pope Francis and many others want negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. But there will be no negotiations now. Both Russia and Ukraine want to improve their positions before negotiations. Russia to get more concessions from Ukraine and Ukraine to avoid too many concessions. But how will the war finally end? I will paint with broad strokes a picture of a probable way to end the war. There will be no detailed discussions about offensives and other military matters. I said that there will be no negotiated peace for now, even though it would probably be the best alternative for Ukraine. The best alternative would of course have been a negotiated settlement during the spring of 2022, but that ship has already sailed. What would an acceptable peace agreement be today. Russia would demand the same things as in 2022. That is a bilingual Ukraine with strong guarantees for the Russian population and the Russian Orthodox Church. A small Ukrainian military, eternal neutrality and close economic ties. End to sanctions and a return of impounded Russian assets in the West. But the main difference would be that not only Crimea but also the entire Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts would be accepted as part of Russia. Ukraine might accept a ceasefire and freezing of the frontlines, nothing else. They don't feel defeated and wouldn't consider giving Russia anything Russia hasn't taken by military force. But the Russian deal is probably the best thing Ukraine can hope to achieve. But that ship will also sail without Ukraine. What has the future in store for the war? The war might be over in a couple of years or continue until 2030. It can also end in an resounding Russian victory or just a minor Russian victory. We now have four different scenarios. Scenario 1. Depends on increased and continuous western support. With that Ukraine can avoid a collapse of the frontline, but Russia will continue to advance, taking a new medium sized city every 6 months. Around 2030 everyone will be tired of the war and when Russia has taken remaining Zaporozhye and Donetsk oblasts plus Kharkov oblast, the war will fade away and become a frozen conflict. Russia will gain about a quarter of Ukrainian population and territory. Ukraine will of course loose that, but keep its freedom of action. Both sides might loose up to a million men each. The new 3/4 Ukraine will have around 20 million inhabitants and bleak economic prospects since the West probably will have tired of supporting Ukraine. The population will probably continue a sharp decline, due to economic hardship and migration. 8-10 million refugees in the West will stay there. New conflicts with Russia might occur later, but with a Russian 10:1 advantage in population and 20:1 in economy Ukraine will be much easier to handle during a new round. And the West might have lost interest in Ukraine. This is the best scenario for Ukraine. Scenario 2. It is based on moderate and declining western support for Ukraine. Initially things might be like in scenario 1 but the speed of the Russian advance will increase year by year. Around 2030 Ukraine realised its defeat when Russian troops had reached the entire east bank of the Dniepr and taken Odessa in the South. Scenario 3. It is a very similar scenario 2 but with a much faster pace. The same result might be achieved for the Russians, but in two years instead of around five, six years. Scenario 4 is also a short term scenario. Ukraine defend itself valiantly during 2024, but during 2025 they realise that western, and especially US, support will stop and that the war therefore is lost. Ukraine asks for negotiations. In tweet 2/2 I'll describe the consequences of a more resounding Ukrainian defeat. On the map you see the present Line of Contact (LoC), Russian progress in scenario 1 (1) and in scenario 2/3 (2/3). To be continued