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Does the inverse fair value gap make money? We backtested 480 versions on 5 markets (2024–25, costs incl.): 377 lost.
Best balance: 15-min, 9:30–11 New York, enter on the close, stop past the swing, 2x target: +52% Nasdaq, +24% S&P 500 (backtest).
#backtestingmax $QQQ
A red day was not more likely after 5 or more green days in a row on the Nasdaq 100. From 2013 to 2025, the next day still closed higher 58% of the time (195 days), compared with 56% on other days. Green day = a close above the day before (16:00 New York).
#backtestingmax $QQQ
From 2023 to 2025, the Nasdaq 100 stayed within 1% of its opening price on 54% of trading days (9:30–16:00 New York time). On the other 46%, it moved at least 1% above or below the open at some point in the day.
#backtestingmax $QQQ
Can day trading beat just holding the S&P 500?
We gave $10,000 to each of 24 day-trading strategies and $10,000 to holding (2024–25 backtest, with costs):
Holding: $14,350
Best strategy: $13,540
The best one was ahead on only 52 of 502 days. So no: holding won.
#backtestingmax
Does Bitcoin really dump at 10 am New York time? No.
700 US stock market days, Jan 2024 to Oct 2026:
From 10 to 11 am, $BTC fell on 348 days and rose on 352.
In every hour of the day, it fell on 45% to 53% of the days.
#backtestingmax
EUR/USD made its high or low of the day between 8:00 and 11:00 New York time on 47% of days (2023–2025). Between 8:00 and 11:00 London time: 25%, about the same as an average 3 hours of the day (24%). GBP/USD: 45% and 24%.
#backtestingmax $EURUSD
Stop day trading at 10:30 a.m. New York time? In 51 of our 75 backtests (5 strategies, 5 markets, 2024–25, costs incl.), trades after 10:30 lost money.
Bollinger Bands on the S&P 500, $10,000: stop at 10:30 → $11,414. All day → $4,241 (backtest).
#backtestingmax $SPY
We used 1 pip of trading costs per EUR/USD trade. With a 5-pip stop-loss and a 5-pip take-profit, a win makes 4 pips and a loss loses 6. So 60% of trades must win to break even. With 10 pips each, you need 55%. With 50 pips each, you need 51%.
#backtestingmax $EURUSD
A day-trading strategy lost 11 trades in a row, then made 44% in two years (backtest: Nasdaq 9/21 EMA cross, 1% risk a trade, costs incl.).
We ran 120 day-trading backtests, 8 strategies on 5 markets. All lost 6+ in a row, even the 31 that made money.
#backtestingmax $QQQ
After the S&P 500 fell 1% or more, the DAX opened below its previous close the next morning 63% of the time, compared with 42% on other mornings.
From its open to its close on those 323 days, the DAX rose on half and fell on the other half. 2014–2025.
#backtestingmax $SPY
A bullish engulfing candle (a green body that covers the red body before it) did not make gold rise more often.
On the daily chart (2010–2025), gold closed higher 3 trading days later 53% of the time after the pattern, and 53% after all other days.
#backtestingmax $XAUUSD
Is the 9 EMA with VWAP all you need to day trade?
We backtested 4 ways to trade them, each with 4 exits, on 4 markets, 2024–2025.
After costs, 6 of 64 versions made money.
VWAP alone, no EMA: 3 of 16 made money.
Gold: 15 of 16 made money before costs, 1 after.
#backtestingmax
The Nasdaq 100 made its weekly low on Monday in 36% of weeks, more often than on any other day. It made its weekly high on Friday in 38% of weeks. If every day were equal, each would be 20%.
555 full weeks, 2013–2025, New York trading hours (9:30–16:00).
#backtestingmax $QQQ
Do you make more money trading gold on the 1-minute chart, or the 4-hour?
We backtested one EMA strategy on 7 timeframes, 2023–2025, with costs.
1-minute: the account was gone in 7 trading days.
4-hour: +19%.
Costs were a third of a typical 1-minute stop-loss.
#backtestingmax
Prop firm challenge: you pass at +10% and fail at -10%. A winning strategy: 40% of trades win, and wins pay 2x the risk. By the math, at 1% risk per trade it fails 13% of challenges. At 2% risk, it fails 28%.
But at 1%, passing takes about 3x as many trades.
#backtestingmax
Traders often say EUR/USD moves 100 pips a day. In 2023–2025, the average day moved 73 pips from high to low. Only 16% of days moved 100 pips or more.
We count each day from 17:00 to 17:00 New York time, like most forex charts.
#backtestingmax $EURUSD
Should you take profit at the average daily range (ADR)?
We tested 11 markets, 2023 to 2025. A market reached its ADR 3,404 times.
Price then closed further on 50% and back on 50%.
So the ADR alone is no reason to take profit, or to hold.
#backtestingmax $EURUSD
On weekdays from 2023 to 2025, Bitcoin moved the most from 10:00 to 11:00 New York time, the first full hour after US stocks open at 9:30. That hour's high and low were 1.25% apart on average, compared with 0.52% in the quietest hour, 0:00 to 1:00.
#backtestingmax $BTC
EUR/USD broke out of its Asian range on 93 of 100 London mornings (2023–2025). On 20 of them, it broke both the high and the low.
Asian range: the high and low from 00:00 GMT until London opens at 8:00.
#backtestingmax $EURUSD
Should you trade Friday afternoons?
We checked 3 years of volume and volatility on EUR/USD, gold and Nasdaq.
Friday afternoons: normal volume, normal volatility.
The quietest afternoons: Mondays.
#backtestingmax
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