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#Cbot recap:
#Corn - December futures closed up 3 cents at $5.3650 on technical buying, while September added 1.75 cents to $5.12. Weekly export sales were soft at 42.2 million bushels, with harvest pressure and the upcoming WASDE report creating uncertainty.
#Wheat - Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW both surged 24.25 cents to close at $7.67 and $8.2775 respectively, driven by escalating Black Sea tensions. Supply risks are amplified by South Africa's near 100-year low planted area, pushing wheat to three-year highs.
#Soy Complex - November soybeans jumped 20 cents to $12.88 on strong demand, including flash sales to China and Europe. Soymeal and soy oil also rallied ~2.5% and 3.75%, supported by weekly export sales hitting the high end of estimates at 93.8 million bushels.
Mercado agrícola de CBOT fechou em forte alta hoje, com os contratos ajustando próximo as máximas da semana.
#grupolabhoro #labhoro #CBOT #soja #fy
September expected to surpass prior hottest 2019's 262 U.S. population-weighted cooling degree days to break new record. Prior super El Niño of 2015 also broke record for September.
🌴 BMD EVENING CLOSING — FRI, 28 AUG
#BMD #PalmOil #FCPO #PalmOilFutures #MalaysiaPalmOil #CPO #CommodityMarket #FuturesMarket #CBOT #DCE #Soyoil #PalmOlein #BrentCrude #Forex #MYR #IDR #MarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #Bullish #MarketSentiment #TeamSaveraa
#CBOT recap:
🌽 #Corn: Sep $5.1025 (-3.75¢); Dec $5.3350 (-3¢). Technical correction after the rally. New-crop sales 42M bu, but shipments remain below average.
🌾 #Wheat: Chicago Sep $7.4275 (+12.25¢); KC HRW Sep $8.0350 (+11.5¢). Strongest grain market, with weather + Black Sea risks supporting prices.
🫘 #Soy complex: Sep beans $12.565 (+2.25¢); Nov $12.68 (+2¢). Soymeal +~0.5%; soy oil >1%. New-crop soybean sales 91.1M bu provide strong demand support.
📊 Macros: Brent >$88 (+~2%); USD marginally firmer.
🔍Opinion: #wheat’s 8% #CBOT jump has hit #hedgefunds who had held short positions for the past four years. This is one of only three such positions remaining in the #Bloomberg #Commodity Index. The 12% annual #contango, a scenario where short sellers previously profited from rolling over their positions, has narrowed to below 5%, eroding the benefits of the #carry strategy. Further price increases could see these short positions flip to a significant net long for the first time since 2022
#Wheat: Before the latest 8% surge in CBOT wheat, driven by mounting supply concerns as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted exports from a region that in a normal year accounts for more than 25% of global wheat exports, it is worth noting that wheat was one of just three BCOM commodities in which managed money still held a net short position.
Speculators have maintained a net short in CBOT wheat for most of the period since 2022, encouraged not only by a comfortable supply outlook but also by an elevated contango. A contango market provides a positive carry for short sellers when they roll a position from a lower-priced nearby contract into a higher-priced deferred contract. As recently as May, the one-year contango was around 12%, implying that, at an unchanged prompt price, a short position could earn roughly 12% over a year simply from the roll.
That dynamic is now changing. As the supply outlook tightens, the one-year contango has narrowed to below 5%, significantly reducing the carry incentive for maintaining a short position. Combined with rising prices, this increases the pressure on existing shorts to cover.
With that in mind, any further deterioration in the supply outlook could see the rally amplified by a shift in speculative positioning from short covering towards outright net-long exposure - something managed money has not held in earnest for more than four years.
Quản trị rủi ro giá nguyên liệu thức ăn chăn nuôi: Bài toán cố định biên lợi nhuận COGS trị giá nửa triệu USD cho doanh nghiệp..#CommodityTrading #RiskManagement #Hedging #AgriCommodities #Procurement #CFO #SupplyChain #SACT #MXV #CBOT
#SOYOIL Basis/Fob vs #CBOT: #VEGOILS
#ARGENTINA:
Sep(to CBOT Oct)-1300/-1350(Fob Slr 1200$/Byr 1189)+2$
Oct-1300/-1340(1200/1191)+5
ND-1300/-1380(1207/1189)+6
JFM-1340/-1370(1201/1194)-7
#BRAZIL:
Sep-1180/-1330(1222/1189)-6
Oct-1260/-1360(1209/1187)-6
ND-1230/-1380(1222/1189)-1
#CBOT recap:
🌽 #Corn: Dec futures +13¢ to $5.365/bu, a 3-year high. Pro Farmer’s 173.2 bu/acre yield estimate is well below USDA, tightening the potential U.S. balance sheet. Ethanol production also improved.
🫘 #Soy: Nov +28.25¢ to $12.66. China bought another 12.2mn bu, while Sinograin auctioned imported stocks. Meal >2.5% higher; soyoil slightly lower.
🌾 #Wheat: Chicago Sep +45¢ to $7.305/bu. Black Sea risks + European heat + U.S. Plains dryness are supporting prices. India adding potential supply to global trade.
💵 Macro: U.S. PCE inflation at 3.7% YoY kept the dollar and Treasury yields firm. Brent slipped below $87.
Jornada alcista📈🌱🌽🌾
Mercados agrícolas. El trigo subió US$16 y la soja US$10 en Chicago: qué factores impulsaron las cotizaciones
➡️ https://t.co/t10MfRP25t
#AgroTitular #AgroCordoba #agro #campo #MercadodeGranos #CBOT #soja #maiz #trigo
There is now a 69% chance this El Niño reaches a strength that would exceed every previous El Niño event dating back to 1950.
That is a huge signal heading into fall and winter.
Do we really think 100k longs were added today in #CBOT #Corn? C'mon man! Would be interesting to track all the December calls that are still short out there between now and #Harvest26. Specifically the ones that were pimped-out last fall for 20 cents vs the old crop.
Don't lose sight of obligations...and yield!
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