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🚨 Bitcoin Market Deep Dive: Why I’m Still Short-Term Bearish and What the Metrics Are Telling Us
#CryptoTweeter #Bitcoin #BTCAnalysis #Altcoins #CryptoMarkets #OnChainData
I recently came across a statistic that really shifted my view on the market.
The average Bitcoin holder bought in at $56,396. That means most holders are still in profit. Historically, the best time to buy has been when the average Bitcoin investor is in losses. So, in the worst-case scenario, there’s still potential for prices to fall further.
Here’s something many people miss: the number of BTC currently in loss is surprisingly high. There are a few BTC in multiple X profit, but a lot of coins are just slightly underwater. Out of roughly 20 million BTC circulating, around 7 million are already in loss — and this is after only a modest price drop. We’re not yet at extreme turnaround points, but the number of coins in loss is higher than I expected.
Realized Cap & Net Position Change
Looking at the realized cap net position change gives us insight into whether holders are realizing gains or losses.
Currently:
- Long-term holders (LTHs) are still realizing gains.
- Short-term holders (STHs) are already in losses.
This suggests that the LTHs are driving the early stages of this bear market, not ETFs or short-term traders. ETFs are outflowing, yes, but the impact of LTH selling is far larger on the market price.
In fact, long-term holders started selling aggressively after BTC hit $110K, but they’re still in profit. Once they start realizing losses, we could see even more downward pressure. The LTH realized price is around $36,000, which might be a potential floor if macro conditions align.
The Flash Crash & Deleveraging Event
Something significant happened on October 10th: a flash crash in the altcoin market. On average, altcoins dropped ~60% within an hour before recovering.
The implications:
- Traders using leverage lost funds
- Short-term capital withdrew from the market
- Open interest on perpetual futures collapsed and continues to decline
This is a classic deleveraging event, and it exerts ongoing downward pressure on spot prices through arbitrage bots and liquidity movements. Some market makers profited massively, but overall, capital is smaller, cautious, and less aggressive.
Altcoins & BTC Correlation
The flash crash also highlighted the correlation between altcoin flows and Bitcoin prices. Capital outflows, decreased funding rates, and cautious traders all amplify the negative trend, especially when combined with LTH profit-taking.
We might not yet see the full knock-on effects. Some funds or market participants could have been permanently impacted, similar to post-Terra/Luna market reactions.
Why I Remain Short-Term Bearish
Considering all the metrics:
- LTHs still in profit and selling
- STHs already in loss, limiting capital for rebound
- Deleveraging from derivatives and futures
- Ongoing ETF outflows
…It’s clear why I expect more downside before any significant recovery. The market might find some support at the average cost basis (~$56K), but until LTHs slow their profit-taking, the short-term trend remains bearish.
How I Approach This Market
I focus on a middle-ground strategy:
- Dollar-cost averaging for long-term adoption
- Tracking technical indicators to time entries/exits
- Using metrics like the 44-day simple moving average for short-term trends
Historically, the 44-day SMA has performed exceptionally well compared to buy-and-hold. It provides a structured way to navigate volatility, helping identify when to bet on rising or falling prices.
Whether you’re a long-term holder or actively trading, this approach balances data-driven timing with long-term conviction.
Final Thoughts
The market is complex, but the key takeaway is simple:
- The long-term holder selling is a major factor
- Short-term leveraged traders add to downward pressure
- Average cost basis and realized losses can indicate turning points
- Deleveraging and capital outflows make the environment fragile
We’re likely still in a phase of structural unwinding, and it’s crucial to stay informed, patient, and strategic.
#CryptoEducation #Bitcoin #BTC #Altcoins #MarketAnalysis #CryptoStrategy #OnChainData #BearMarket

GM! Yappers
Starting my day with you all
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Days left to the burn: 0️⃣
Today’s the day, #CryptoTwitter!
$100 million $LIMO are fated to be burned today, so sit back and watch those rewards GROW 📈
Don’t miss out on #altseason in the #limoverse!
You can buy $LIMO here 👇
@Poloniex
@BitMartExchange
@PancakeSwap

It’s almost here, #CryptoTwitter!
We’ve got ONLY one day left to go to our very first $LIMO token burn 🔥
After it’s rallying 33% earlier this week,
What’s going to happen after the burn? 💭
Comment your price predictions below! 👇
Let’s bring #Altseason early this year

🗯️“If you were unfairly treated by your employer due to posting or liking something on this platform, we will fund your legal bill. No limit. Please let us know”, — #ElonMusk just said about #X / #Tweeter 🫢😱
#TweeterWorld #TweeterX #XTwitter #CryptoTweeter #FreedomOfSpeech

"a Mattresses placed on the floor in an empty room with only a smartphone charger, stages an increasingly limited landscape for a generation that sees in the WEB3 its last salvation." @ionn1999
#web3 #rekt #weareallrekt #Rabbithole #CT #cryptotweeter #nfttweeter

#EverRiseV3 tradable NFT staking contracts is a game changer 🤯
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#cryptotweeter lately … #btc #eth #xrp
Mass adoption includes some foukin bad sides… so who is a car guru? 😂

@AbraGlobal why abra? I just want to transfer some #doge to my other wallet. #befair #dontbelikeotherexchanges #cryptocurrencies #Crypto #cryptocurrency #cryptotweeter

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