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$SATS NAV Analysis The investment thesis is simple. $SATS has meaningful exposure to SpaceX / SPCX. My base NAV assumptions: • SPCX ownership equivalent: 2.2% • SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M • Fully diluted shares after convertible note conversion: 348M I use 348M shares in the calculations below. • Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX: Approximately $22.65B from $T Approximately $9.0B in cash from $SPCX Total: approximately $31.65B • Net cash assuming the convertible notes convert into equity: approximately $10.96B • Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B • Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.46B • Residual business value: $10B 2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple Formula: SATS NAV = {SPCX market cap × 2.2% + net cash after haircut + residual business value} / 348M shares Results: SATS NAV by SPCX market cap: • SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $180 • SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $196 • SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $211 • SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $227 • SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $243 The important point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade. Even if SPCX prices its IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin. A large portion of the IPO shares will likely be pre-allocated to institutions and retail investors. That means the actual number of shares available in the open market on IPO day may be far smaller than the headline IPO size. The real question is not: “How many SPCX shares will be issued?” The real question is: “How many dollars’ worth of SPCX shares will actually be available to buy in the open market on IPO day?” If the open-market float on day one is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or higher. On top of that, the possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should not be ignored. Nasdaq has recently changed its rules in a way that makes it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index earlier. If SPCX shows massive market capitalization and sufficient liquidity immediately after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the normal annual rebalance. That said, if SPCX has a very low float, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limitations. So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis. Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running from institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds. If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could become even tighter, and SATS NAV would re-rate in real time. Imagine IPO day. SPCX indicative opening prices keep moving higher and higher, but the stock has not opened yet. Investors are staring at the screen, unable to buy SPCX. Then they look sideways and see that $SATS, which has exposure to 2.2% of SPCX, is already trading. At SPCX $3T, my SATS NAV is approximately $243/share. However, in a pure supply-demand-driven market, SATS may trade above NAV, not below NAV. If SATS trades at a 10–30% premium to NAV: • SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $230–275 • SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $270–315 And that is before considering short covering.