Top Tweets for #exclna

5 months ago

@PeterBerezinBCA just time the exits via FRank("CurQEPSMean/CurQEPS8WkAgo",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) < 80 and close (0) < sma (50) --> e.g. you sell as soon earnings estimates ROC is not in the top 20% AND the 50 day sma is broken ;-) Built with @P123Finance

GfI_Himmelreich's tweet photo. @PeterBerezinBCA just time the exits via
FRank("CurQEPSMean/CurQEPS8WkAgo",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) < 80 and close (0) < sma (50)
--> e.g. you sell as soon earnings estimates ROC is not in the top 20% AND the 50 day sma is broken ;-)
Built with @P123Finance https://t.co/2hvd3ehosi

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

6 months ago

Everything growthy (EPS / Sales) shorter term is interesting: ActualGr%PQ etc. --------------------- AvgDailyTot(20,5) > 100000000 FRank("CurQEPSMean/CurQEPS13WkAgo",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 90 FRank("ActualGr%PQ(#EPS)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 CurQEPSMean > CurQEPS13WkAgo CurQEPSMean > 0 CurQEPS13WkAgo > 0

114

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

9 months ago

It gets even stronger with Actuals Data Confirming: Here’s the EPS filter: Estimates Accelerating: FRank("CurQEPSMean/CurQEPS13WkAgo",#all,#DESC,#ExclNA) > 90 Translation: Analyst upgrades over the last quarter — strong forward momentum. Both Positive: CurQEPSMean > 0 CurQEPS13WkAgo > 0 No recovery plays — only profitable growth. Actuals --> Actuals Confirming: FRank("ActualGr%PQ(#EPS)",#all,#DESC,#ExclNA) > 80 Translation: Last quarter’s EPS actually grew vs. prior quarter — real delivery, not just hype. When estimates are rising AND actuals are accelerating — you’ve got institutional fuel. This combo screens for earnings momentum with confirmation — the quiet edge in large caps. BUT! Timing is everything. Most earnings plays fail because they ignore the calendar. Here’s the cycle: Quarters 1–3: The setup phase. Estimates build. Actuals confirm. This is where you play momentum — upgrades meeting delivery. Quarter 4: The reset. Analysts wipe the slate. Guidance resets. You can’t hedge it. You can only step aside. For me, the next few years look like Quad 1–3 dominance. Not many Quad 4 wipeouts in sight. That means this playbook isn’t just useful — it’s essential. And the best part? You don’t need a Bloomberg terminal. @P123Finance has the data — estimates, actuals, ranks, screening — all for $25/month. $25 for institutional-grade earnings momentum data. That’s not a cost. That’s an edge!

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

9 months ago

🔥 Growth hasn't worked? 90% of investors are defining it wrong! The financial media's "growth vs. value" theater misses the point. True alpha comes from identifying change —and the most reliable proxy for positive change in a company's trajectory is upward revisions in expected earnings. And @P123Finance has the data! Most think "growth = tech or high-P/E stocks." That’s why they miss the real alpha: earnings estimate acceleration. Here’s how my P123 model finds true growth — and has outperformed by focusing on fundamental momentum, not sector labels ⤵️ 1️⃣ The Sophisticated Concept, Simplified Growth isn’t a sector. It’s a signal: CurQEPSMean / CurQEPS13WkAgo → ranking stocks by current quarter EPS estimate revisions. When analysts raise estimates sharply, the stock tends to follow. Even an oil stock can be “growth” under this rule. 2️⃣ The Framework That Makes It Work My model doesn’t just chase estimates. It balances them with Core Combination: - Growth - Quality - Value - Momentum - Low Vol - Sentiment This ensures we buy durable growth, not speculative hype. 3️⃣ The Execution: Clear Buy/Sell Rules Buy: Top 10% EPS acceleration + Beta > 70 + Positive EPS Sell: Falls below top 20% EPS momentum + breaks 50-day SMA Systematic. Unemotional. Repeatable. 4️⃣ Why This Works Yes, gains have been concentrated in few names lately. That’s exactly what a momentum-based system should capture. If only 10 stocks show strong estimate acceleration, that’s where the model allocates. No narratives. Just rankings. 5️⃣ The Receipt Model performance speaks for itself. Not backtest glory — live, weekly rebalanced, transparent rules. This is how you systematize growth! Bottom line: Growth works — if you define it as earnings estimate momentum + balance with solid fundamentals. #QuantInvesting #SystematicTrading #P123 #GrowthInvesting

GfI_Himmelreich's tweet photo. 🔥 Growth hasn't worked? 90% of investors are defining it wrong!

The financial media's "growth vs. value" theater misses the point. True alpha comes from identifying change —and the most reliable proxy for positive change in a company's trajectory is upward revisions in expected earnings. And @P123Finance has the data!

Most think "growth = tech or high-P/E stocks."
That’s why they miss the real alpha: earnings estimate acceleration.

Here’s how my P123 model finds true growth — and has outperformed by focusing on fundamental momentum, not sector labels ⤵️

1️⃣ The Sophisticated Concept, Simplified
Growth isn’t a sector. It’s a signal:
CurQEPSMean / CurQEPS13WkAgo → ranking stocks by current quarter EPS estimate revisions.
When analysts raise estimates sharply, the stock tends to follow. Even an oil stock can be “growth” under this rule.

2️⃣ The Framework That Makes It Work
My model doesn’t just chase estimates. It balances them with Core Combination:
- Growth
- Quality
- Value
- Momentum
- Low Vol
- Sentiment

This ensures we buy durable growth, not speculative hype.

3️⃣ The Execution: Clear Buy/Sell Rules
Buy: Top 10% EPS acceleration + Beta > 70 + Positive EPS
Sell: Falls below top 20% EPS momentum + breaks 50-day SMA
Systematic. Unemotional. Repeatable.

4️⃣ Why This Works
Yes, gains have been concentrated in few names lately.
That’s exactly what a momentum-based system should capture. If only 10 stocks show strong estimate acceleration, that’s where the model allocates.
No narratives. Just rankings.

5️⃣ The Receipt
Model performance speaks for itself.
Not backtest glory — live, weekly rebalanced, transparent rules.
This is how you systematize growth!

Bottom line:
Growth works — if you define it as earnings estimate momentum + balance with solid fundamentals.

#QuantInvesting #SystematicTrading #P123 #GrowthInvesting

870

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

almost 2 years ago

https://t.co/Eh78rC5QBR (for @P123Finance subscribers)... --> Ranking Core: Sentiment, Rank Tolerance 20% (so stock can drop from 99 to 89 before it gets sold...) Rules --> FRank("%(CurQEPSMean, CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 90 picks the top 10% of Earnings estimates ROC up AvgDailyTot(10) > 100000000 --> very liquid stocks FRank("ActualGr%PQ(#EPS)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 70 --> actual growth (Data from press releases) FRank("ATR(20,0)",#SUBINDUSTRY,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 --> only stocks from industries that "move"

GfI_Himmelreich's tweet photo. https://t.co/Eh78rC5QBR (for @P123Finance subscribers)...
--> Ranking Core: Sentiment, Rank Tolerance 20% (so stock can drop from 99 to 89 before it gets sold...)
Rules --> FRank("%(CurQEPSMean, CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 90 picks the top 10% of Earnings estimates ROC up
AvgDailyTot(10) > 100000000 --> very liquid stocks
FRank("ActualGr%PQ(#EPS)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 70 --> actual growth (Data from press releases)
FRank("ATR(20,0)",#SUBINDUSTRY,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 --> only stocks from industries that "move"

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

almost 2 years ago

AI Factor System build by a customer (Investor) in a Zoom Call --> Features / Factors --> mostly Buffett Style, Predictor Extra Trees III (trained from 2004 - 2019) + FRank("%(CurQEPSMean, CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 50 as a buy rule, Sell Rule Rank < 85, Rebalance Frequency: Every 26 Weeks, nice work! @P123Finance

GfI_Himmelreich's tweet photo. AI Factor System build by a customer (Investor) in a Zoom Call --> Features / Factors --> mostly Buffett Style, Predictor Extra Trees III (trained from 2004 - 2019) + FRank("%(CurQEPSMean, CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 50 as a buy rule, Sell Rule Rank < 85, Rebalance Frequency: Every 26 Weeks, nice work! @P123Finance

429

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

almost 2 years ago

@margi52078304 top 20% of actuals earnings growth FRank("ActualGr%PQ(#EPS)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 is in the buy rule...

275

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

about 2 years ago

@kulturdesken @FranVezz FRank("%(CurQEPSMean, CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 85 --> filters for stocks that are in the top 15% of earnings ROC up between today and 13 weeks ago (P123 also has 1, 4 and 8 weeks, but 13 weeks out test best...)

480

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

over 2 years ago

try stock selection with a high(er) beta filter... FRank("Beta1Y",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 and earnings revisions in the top 10-20% FRank("%(CurQEPSMean , CurQEPS13WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 80 also try market cap weighting^0.75 add the 10 or 20 day moving average of QQQs as a regime filter add industry group momo as a filter

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

over 3 years ago

@systvest powerfull buy filter FRank("%(CurQEPSMean , CurQEPS4WkAgo)",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 90 + CurQEPSMean > CurQEPS1WkAgo --> buying stocks top decile of earnings estimates up + confirming in the last weak... @P123Finance

123

Andreas Himmelreich

@GfI_Himmelreich

over 5 years ago

wow, all time high for quality small caps: Ranking system has momentum, industry momentum, value, quality, earnings accell. etc. Multi factor beauty! + FRank("NetFCFQ/AstTotQ",#all,#DESC, #ExclNA) > 90 in the buy filter! OOS since May 2020!

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