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Excellent analysis of $AMZN.
#neversellamazon
I posted this analysis of $AMZN earlier this year. It is still relevant in my opinion. Now it seems like most people have recognised that AMZN is an AI winner.
But still, I do believe people are not bullish enough on this name. This will be one of the biggest winners from MULTIPLE secular trends.
AI - AWS distribution is already massive, and AI revenue is going crazy.
Cloud Computing - Not just the servers AMZN's chip business is crazy and would be an industry leader on day 1 if they decide to go aggressively into the market.
Robotics - This one will be a huge profit driver for the retail part, and already is.
Digital Advertisement - This is still a secular trend, and it will only accelerate with AI targeting.
E-Commerce - I do believe people do not appreciate enough that e-commerce penetration still has a major runway of growth, especially in international markets.
Autonomous Vehicles - Analogous to robotics, self-driving vehicles will play a massive role in the delivery networks, and there is also Zoox.
Satellites - Project Leo is shaping up to be a competitor for Starlink, which is SpaceX's profit driver.
General shift in the business mix:
I think the margin mix shift is vastly underestimated. While the low-margin businesses themselves are getting higher margins thanks to automation and AI, the higher-margin businesses are still growing significantly faster than the low-margin ones.
What happens to AMZN's economics if AWS and Ads become a much larger part of the business, while Retail becomes smaller - while retail margins are also improving?
Also, all significant businesses are accelerating revenues: e-commerce (including third-party sellers), subscriptions, advertising, and AWS. The trend is insane, and as we move forward, the market has no choice but to recognise this.
People last year asked me a lot when $GOOGL hit $200 if it’s still a buy. Now look where we are. I believe AMZN could be a similar story. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a $5T market cap not too far in the future.
I am still very bullish, and while I recognise that everybody is bullish now, I believe people are still not bullish enough on this ticker.
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