Top Tweets for #passivebubble
Will DeepSeek be the pin that pops the AI bubble, Mag 7 bubble, #everythingbubble and #passivebubble all at once?
The decline is accelerating:
Nasdaq 100 futures are now down -330 POINTS since the market opened just hours ago as DeepSeek takes #1 on the App Store.
This is how you know DeepSeek has become a major threat to US large cap tech.
The stock market does not lie.
(a thread)
S&P 500 yield is down to 1.22%, near the low that coincided with the Dec-21 top.
#everythingbubble #passivebubble
NDX/RUT ratio has gone from 10.0 to 8.8 in a week. Just getting started!
#passivebubble
@Schuldensuehner Long way to go... Chart is from the peak 6 days ago.
This is what crowded trades look like when they start to unwind. Historic day.
#passivebubble
Hell froze over ...
Passive is a bubble machine, that will end in a crash
It has to do with free float (mis) calculations
Passive shrinks the True Free Float
A thread
@BearTrapsReport
Efficient Market Hypothesis...destroyed
Discount rate...WGAF
Eugene Fama shouted out at a CFA conference that "everyone knows the market is efficient"
Prof Fama might be the only one that does not know that markets are inefficient
#PassiveBubble
10 years ago the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.8% and the Fed Funds Rate was at 0%. Today, the 10-year yield is 4.2% and Fed Funds Rate above 5%.
Have higher interest rates led to lower valuations, as many said with certainty would happen?
Video: https://t.co/ZWT2chFFrw
The US10 year was at 1.5% when NASDAQ peaked end 2021
Now itβs 4.3% as the stocks retest the highs
No-one is using discounted cash flow models, anymore
Wonder how much of the retiring silent generation & Boomersβ stock holdings are passive
#PassiveBubble #RetirementSupply #PassiveCrash
Potential Double Top in the Magnificent 7? Market Cap as a % of the S&P 500 is nearing the level it hit in November 2021 just before the stock market fell apart.
There are a lot of cheap stocks out there, but $NVDA isn't one of them. Trades at 47x earnings with declining revenues and margins. Most of these overpriced stocks reside in the $SPX.
#passivebubble
Ytd, the equal-weight $RSP has outperformed the float-weighted $SPY by almost 5%, a sign the #passivebubble is unwinding.
Ytd AUM at $BLK have gone from $10.0T to $8.0T. Inflows of $247B filled 11% of the hole from investment losses, a sign the #passivebubble is yet to burst. When that happens, BLK will experience outflows and trade at under 2x revenue.
The broad market is still not cheap by any measure...
... The good news: there are pockets of very cheap stocks, especially outside the $SPX.
#everythingbubble #passivebubble
It's not difficult to tell which of these two companies is in the S&P 500 and which isn't.
#passivebubble $NKE $SKX
The S&P 500 committee tends to dump cheap stocks and add expensive ones. Forward P/Es:
December deletions:
$LEG = 13.5
$HBI = 8.8
$WU = 8.0
December additions:
$SBNY = 18.9
$SEDG = 40.4
$FDS = 36.4
#passivebubble
Tale of 2 global footwear companies:
$NKE:
Fwd P/E = 35.1
EV/gross profit = 12.71
5-yr revenue growth = +6.7%/yr
$SKX:
Fwd P/E = 14.6
EV/gross profit = 1.95
5-yr revenue growth = +11.1%/yr
Can you guess which company is in the S&P 500 and which one isn't?
#passivebubble
There is no such thing as "passive" investing. E.g., the S&P 500 committee jettisoned department store chain $KSS on 9/21/20 at $21.50. (We added to our position.) The stock has since tripled. They just guided to EPS of $7.20 this year.
#passivebubble
Top 5 ETF managers, AUM & 3-year AUM growth:
1. BlackRock: $2.3T, +64%
2. Vanguard: $1.9T, +108%
3. State Street Global Advisors: $1.0T, +57%
4. Invesco: $365M, +92%
5. Charles Schwab: $250M, +109%
#passivebubble
$BLK $STT, $IVZ, $SCHW
Meanwhile, index fund business must deal with relentless fee compression. Not a problem as long as the #passivebubble tide keeps rising. Let's see when the tide goes out...
2/
@evan_lorenz @JulianKlymochko @profplum99 Flows have been a massive headwind for active investors. The passive case is a backward look. Looking forward, the environment for active investing is ideal... plenty of inefficiencies created by the #passivebubble.
$BLK in 2 charts: record valuation, continued fee compression in iShares business.
#passivebubble
Passive management is a commodity business, a race to the bottom.
"The Vanguard effect is hitting Vanguard,β said Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. βItβs like a boomerang in a way.β
#passivebubble
https://t.co/bT1hZHTs2P
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