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#GS #Rubner #September
Why September is the weakest month for equities
Since 1950, the second half of September has delivered the worst S&P 500 returns of any two-week trading period in the calendar year. The last 11 days of the month are historically even more dire; since 1928, the median S&P 500 return is negative for 10 out of those 11 days, says Scott Rubner, on the Emerging Markets Ex-Asia Derivative Sales and Macro Execution team. “The annual September weakness can traditionally be explained by the flow of funds into and out of the equity markets,” Rubner says.
US companies have been the largest buyers on equity markets. But as a number of companies enter a “blackout period” — a phase when they're unable to buy and sell shares ahead of the release of their earnings reports — Rubner expects corporate demand for shares to drop by 35% for around two weeks beginning Sep. 13.
Other institutional investors tend to rebalance their portfolios towards the end of every quarter, which in this case is the last half of September. Pension funds are 103% funded at the moment, according to the Milliman Top 100 Pension Funding Index, a measure of assets and future liabilities. “We have consistently seen them reduce equity risk and immunize liabilities (against the risk of interest-rate fluctuations) while moving into investment-grade credit around this time of the year,” Rubner says
Another factor this year is the upcoming US presidential election in November, and the prospect of policy uncertainty in its wake. “If I backtest this year against the previous six elections, it's exponentially more levered,” Rubner says. A potential risk is to go long on equities heading into the election, and “then something out of the blue happens, like say a capital gains tax on realized gains.”
September is the obverse of July, which has historically been the best month for equities. July 2024 had “a bit of a first-half-second-half story to it,” Rubner says. “It was pretty good to start with, and then it faded off around July 16. But overall, it was still positive on the month.” This month too, performances are in line with historical expectations. “The S&P 500 is down 3.14% to date, as of Sep. 10, so it's acting consistently," Rubner says.
Goldman Sachs identifica el culpable de la fuerte volatilidad: la temida escasez de liquidez
https://t.co/IgfyKNMh8h
#goldmansachs #volatilidad #bancos #banca #liquidez #mercadosfinancieros #estadosunidos #rubner #recuperacion #wallstreet #tesoro #oferta #demanda
#Ingenieurholzbau: Auf der #EXPO #Dubai haben Aserbaidschan, Belgien, Großbritannien und der Oman ihre aufsehenerregenden #Pavillons in nachhaltiger #Holzbauweise realisiert. Ausgeführt wurden die #Bauprojekte von #Rubner #Holzbau https://t.co/XkMtlFjTLN
Modernste Technik und Robotik lassen die #Rubner Gruppe das Potenzial des Rohstoffs Holz völlig ausschöpfen. Erfahren Sie, was die Holzprodukte und -bauten des Südtiroler Familienunternehmens so besonders machen: https://t.co/69tTlonPVV #InnovationDeutschland #TBDMedia
Die #Rubner Gruppe versteht die Chancen und Herausforderungen des Rohstoffes Holz und besticht als Marktführer durch Innovation und Tradition. Mehr erfahren Sie hier: https://t.co/GXRw4pZWaE #InnovationDeutschland #TBDMedia
Wie passen der traditionsreiche Rohstoff Holz zu aktuellen Designs und innovativen Lösungen? Die Antworten darauf hat die Südtiroler #Rubner Gruppe. Mehr dazu: https://t.co/O1QEMwn4Ik #InnovationDeutschland #TBDMedia
コントラバス用のマシンヘッドが、数セット入荷。
楽器をカッコよくしたい方、お待ちしております。
#クロサワバイオリン名古屋店
#コントラバス
#マシンヘッド
#キーホルダー気になる
#rubner
#ペグ
#コントラバス修理
Gestione sostenibile delle #foreste:
cos’è e perché ci aiuta nella lotta ai #cambiamenticlimatici
di Peter Rubner, presidente Gruppo #Rubner
Was ist übertrieben, was ist angemessen angesichts des #Coronavirus? Unter dem Strich hilft es nur, gelassen und nüchtern zu bleiben. Und sich die bekannten #Fakten in Erinnerung zu rufen, meint Jeanne #Rubner.
https://t.co/RqHaU43xLP
今日はHIPPY達とのアコースティックライヴ昼夜公演！
#本日のセッティング
#sadowsky #sadowskyNYC #Rubner #glockenklang #heartrock2 #vanderkley #innerbamboo
Si inizia! A #Palestrina, in provincia di #Roma, si parte con la #demolizione del #rudere. Al suo posto una #villa in #legno su due piani firmata #Rubner
A Chienes, nella bassa Val Pusteria, terra delle Tre Cime di Lavaredo, è stata realizzata da Rubner Haus la nuova casa della famiglia #Rubner su progetto dell’architetto Stefan Hitthaler di Hitthaler... https://t.co/G1dxxEILZl
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