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$TSLA EPS Math: There is still upside to 3Q auto gross margins jumping to 17.1% (from 14.9%) and auto COGS/unit dropping to $35.1K -6.4% YoY. Elon’s bullish forecast for FY’25 of +20-30% is likely based on strong 4Q orders to date. Implication: Analysts now have to build these higher numbers into their FY’25 EPS forecasts. My FY’24 est is $2.40 vs WS at $2.38. My FY’25 est is $3.40 vs WS at $3.20. FY’24 Adj EPS ests are now up by the amount of the 3Q beat (+$.12/share) to $2.38. The big opportunity is FY’25: FY’25 Adj EPS ests are up just +$.10/share to $3.20, with FY’25 consensus volume growth up just +14% (Elon guided to +20-30%). Worse, the Street is just modeling Auto GM ex-reg credits of 16.1%. If we add 10pp of vol growth (to +24% YoY) to FY’25 ests and push FY’25 auto GM% to 17.1% (from 16.0%), my FY’25 EPS goes to $3.40 which is where WS should wind up in a few weeks. WS FY’25 Adj EPS is now $3.20, which I believe is $.20 too low. As FY’25 Volume and Auto GM% estimates go higher, $TSLA shares will also go higher.

5 years ago today Tesla’s market cap was just $33 billion Today it is $571 billion, 17 times larger than it was just 5 years ago That’s insane growth. You might not feel that way if you bought at all time highs over $1 trillion market cap when things got crazy, but you’ll probably be fine if you’re patient enough