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🇸🇦🇱🇧 The entire Saudi strategy regarding Lebanon can be summed up in one phrase:
«محاولة لعدم رمي لبنان في فم إسرائيل، وعدم تركه خاضعاً للنفوذ الإيراني بشكل كامل»
"An attempt not to throw Lebanon into the mouth of Israel and not to leave it completely subject to Iranian influence."
The three main goals of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon:
1. To pull Lebanon out of the Iranian axis, but without war
Currently, Lebanon is, in essence, part of Iranian influence — through Hezbollah, its weapons, and political power. Saudi Arabia wants to bring Lebanon back into the "Arab family." To achieve this, it is pushing for the full implementation of the Taif Agreement — the 1989 document according to which all weapons in the country must belong to the state, not to individual parties. This is a way to force Hezbollah to surrender its weapons not under the barrel of an Israeli gun, but through an internal Lebanese resolution with corresponding concessions and compromises.
2. Prevent Israel from absorbing Lebanon
Trump wants a quick success — a peace (normalization) agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Saudi Arabia is categorically against it. Riyadh will try to prevent a direct peace agreement and even a personal meeting between the President of Lebanon and Netanyahu. If Lebanon signs a separate peace with Israel, it will strike at Syria as well and undermine the pan-Arab position. Saudi Arabia wants only a long-term ceasefire and security rules, maintaining Lebanon's commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative (two states for two peoples). Any peace agreements are more likely to lead to the resumption of civil war in Lebanon.
3. Preserve Lebanon as a single state without demographic or geographic changes.
Saudi Arabia wants to prevent an internal explosion, protect the government and the army, and establish dialogue among all communities. That is why its envoy, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, met with all forces, including the key Shiite figure — Speaker Nabih Berri. He is guaranteed: the rights of the Shiites will be protected, but the weapons will come under state control. The Saudis believe that Iran might agree to the option of 'integrating Hezbollah forces into state structures,' roughly following the same scheme as with the SDF in Syria.
Saudi Arabia wants to create a situation in Lebanon in which:
– Iran loses military control, but its allies retain political rights and presence in the army;
– Israel stops bombing Lebanon, but gains neither peace nor recognition;
– The Lebanese state becomes the only one with weapons and power.
The Saudi approach is an attempt to replace Iranian hegemony not with Israeli occupation, but with Arab patronage. This is exactly the policy Riyadh pursued in the 1980s and is now repeating.
This position of the KSA is coordinated with its regional allies: Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
https://t.co/mHhEd4tPc7
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