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Keep a close eye on yields here. US 2Y yields look like they are quietly building a short-term base after the recent spike and consolidation. On the other side, oil is still holding very strongly despite risk assets staying bid. That combination should not be ignored. Once yields start moving higher from this base, risk assets can get blindsided very quickly because it signals renewed Treasury selling and tighter liquidity conditions. Higher oil pressures inflation expectations. Higher yields pressure valuations and funding conditions. Together, they create the exact setup where markets suddenly realize the “risk-on” move was built on very fragile liquidity. For now, equities are acting comfortable. But as oil holds firm and yields break higher, that comfort can turn into panic very fast.

The housing market is running out of buyers: There were an estimated 46.3% more home sellers than buyers in February 2026, the biggest difference since Redfin data began in 2013. This gap has widened sharply from 29.8% a year ago, marking the strongest market for buyers in over a decade. By comparison, there were a record 36.0% more buyers than sellers in November 2022. This comes as the number of active homebuyers fell -2.4% MoM, to ~1.36 million, the lowest since at least 2013. At the same time, the number of sellers declined -0.4% MoM to ~1.99 million, posting a smaller decrease than homebuyers. Further home price cuts are likely coming.

Europe is in a full-blown energy crisis. In fact, Europe's energy crisis has gotten so bad that the European Commission is now recommending Europeans to work from home. They are also recommending using public transportation to cut fossil fuel use. Meanwhile, new IEA data shows that Europe has just 6 weeks worth of jet fuel remaining as the Iran War shortage worsens. As a result, many flights are expected to be cancelled on non-essential routes. Between the Russia-Ukraine War and the Strait of Hormuz closure, Europe's vulnerability to energy supply shocks has been exposed. We expect another wave of inflation in Europe.

The US technology sector is approaching a massive debt maturity wall: More than $330 billion in high-yield, leveraged loan, and business development company-linked software and technology debt is set to mature through 2028. ~$142 billion matures in 2028 alone, nearly 3 times the 2026 amount. Of that, ~$65 billion is in high-yield corporate bonds, while ~$77 billion is in leveraged loans. Most of this debt was issued during the pandemic era of near-zero interest rates, and companies will now have to refinance at significantly higher costs. Many firms are expected to begin refinancing as early as the 2nd half of this year. The tech sector is about to see significantly higher interest rates.

Here is my oil options trade right now, based on possible negotiations over the weekend and a potential positive outcome: Sell 1 88 put expiring Friday (before negotiations) Buy 1 88 put expiring Monday (after negotiations) Sell 2 80 puts expiring Monday (after negotiations) For a credit of 0.3, I’m hoping oil doesn’t collapse before the weekend.