David Hay | Bubble 3.0

I have spent 40+ years in wealth management - including as CIO of a $4B firm - and since 2005 have published a finance newsletter that now reaches 9000 readers.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

@EvergreenGK https://t.co/w1Y93INycD

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Garbo tweets! “I’ve been silent for too long in the Twittersphere—that’s going to change in a big way.” David Hay

Get ready for some smokin' hot tweets.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Part II of Chapter 5 ('The Anti-Bubble Years') is now posted to our Substack page. Follow the link for a great read and make sure you've subscribed while there.

https://t.co/MY07cvaEPA

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Posted 'Bubble 3.0' Chapter 5, Part I this morning (our first weekend release). Part II will follow on Monday. Click below to subscribe and read.

https://t.co/MY07cvaEPA

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Jeff Gundlach “The Bond King” on CNBC this a.m. Key points: CPI eases but only to 5% plus. 10-year T-note to “take a peek” at 3% during ’22. Sees a “stuttering consumer” and recessionary potential. To me, sounds like going stag, as in stagflation.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

"Powell might be comfortable with the nuclear option of the first inter-meeting rate hike since 1994 that set off a bond market bloodbath." - Danielle DM Booth

https://t.co/n2a7Y1ZSgy

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

'Bubble 3.0' Chapter 4 is live. To read about what I've termed "The Bubble That Keeps On Punishing", follow the link to my Substack page, subscribe, and settle in for a story of fiscal outrageousness.

https://t.co/MY07cvsgea

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Fed’s Bullard said yesterday: “I’d like to see (a 1% rate hike) in the bag by July 1”. One trader asked, “Who the heck says something like that a half an hour before a 30-yr bond auction?” Maybe he’s personally short treasuries…

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

In 2017 and 2018, the Fed’s last tightening campaign, I was often asked how much it would raise rates. My answer then: until something snaps. It still is. For now, the bond market is doing the heavy lifting of rates.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

“When America relied on the (Fed) to address its economic problems, it relied on a deeply flawed tool. All the Fed’s money only widened the distance between America’s winners and losers and laid the foundation for more instability.” - 'The Lords of Easy Money'

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

“The Fed is government. It’s much more post-office than bank. You can think of it as a business that can’t fail run by people who can’t be fired.” Former Fed trader Joseph Wang as relayed by Kevin Muir and Luke Gromen

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Just started this book. Looks like an excellent companion piece to my “Bubble 3.0”. Similar theme—how Fed policies have created huge societal problems--but different approach. “Bubble 3.0” more focused on investor protection strategies. Next chapter out tomorrow via Substack.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Compelling visual images of Bubbles 1.0 and 2.0. How did those work out for you? Check out my new book, “Bubble 3.0”, to find out how to prepare for the aftermath of the third mass mania, the biggest of them all.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Follow up: John Waldron questioned the Fed’s ability to do “...what it thinks is right and not what’s expedient.”
(Courtesy of the always-brilliant Luke Gromen)

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

As reported in Bloomberg: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President John Waldron said the independence of the Fed has been damaged in recent years and that it’s lost credibility in markets..."

https://t.co/hTSUykr4rK

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

More thoughts on Powell from Fred Hickey: “Irritable Powell Syndrome can be caused when the Fed chairman indicates multiple interest rate hikes are coming, in addition to sizable reductions in the Fed’s balance sheet.”

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Best financial newsletter title I’ve seen of late, from Fred Hickey (The High Tech Strategist): “Irritable Powell Syndrome”

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Posted 'Bubble 3.0' Chapter 3 this morning. Visit my Substack page to read that one and register for all those we'll be posting soon.

https://t.co/MY07cvaEPA

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Interest rates are soaring in Europe. Last week saw a Six Sigma (almost statistically impossible) yield spike in some euro bond markets.

See the 10-year German government bond (bund) chart as an example.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

FFTT published their "10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently" list. https://t.co/1dJbvrph6T

This passage stood out to me: "Fed’s Bullard: We don’t want to disrupt markets but we also need to keep inflation under control"

Good luck with that one.

[David Hay | Bubble 3.0 @hay_bubble3]

Re-posted Chapter 2 of 'Bubble 3.0' this morning. Find a link to the content on our Substack page. There's a lot there for you and more on the way, so don't forget to subscribe to receive it all as it's released.

https://t.co/9JlXFK9nZF