HazelnutXin | 榛心

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[周期手牛牛 @niuniu255431]

再过一遍我对于存储芯片的理解，一次过完，给自己加深印象

1 HBM高宽带内存：
目前最看好海力士，没有之一
三星是整个综合实力最强的，强在于几乎这一块所有的顶尖业务都自己做，哪怕台积电的先进封装也在抢，也一定可以抢到！
美光最拉垮，富二代，没啥��西，一旦真神来美股，都得靠边，溢价就在非ADR而已。

2 主流的DRAM：
就是把GPU旁边的内存加高，这一排能做的多了南亚科技和华邦电子，但是这俩利基也做。
利基存储的意思就是垂类赛道的玩意，比如给车用的，给机器人用的，给电脑，给手机等等垂直类赛道用的东西
然后就是中国大王：长鑫，这个A股必上，为国争光了，朱一鸣牛逼

3主流的NAND闪存：
除了三大巨头，外加凯侠和闪迪以及中国小王：长江
最新这俩不太老实，做了点牛逼的东西出来
闪迪在做HBF：高宽带闪存
铠侠最近在做温存储，又叫相变存储PCM，SCM盘
说到这儿了我插入一下
这两个公司其实是两种���线，谁赢，谁就吃下下一个周期的大红利！！！
闪迪比较有钱，所以直接干难做的，铠侠就去做温存储了，毕竟是小弟，俩人共用一个生产线！

4 高宽带闪存HBF：（2027-2028量产）
闪迪带着海力士合作开发的东西，东西出来了可以省一部分HBM的钱
三星反正啥都干，肯定有
国内目前没人做，但是，未来长江肯定会做，兵家必争之地

5 温存储SCM：
这个其实是有难度的，因为因特尔傲腾做了，死了…花了几十亿美金
大普微也在做。这家公司是个奇葩，北邮的Ceo，原生家庭玩法，低流通高市值，刺激的很
还有就是武汉新存和天链芯了，但是没上市，天山电子持股他们，也有点意思，其他的公司太傻逼就不说了

6 内存接口/内存池化：
为啥先讲这个，因为存储到这儿就可以做成一块儿了，要链接了
这块儿没啥选的，国内就一家，澜起科技，然后多加一个给澜起做SPD/模组配套芯片的聚辰股份
海外就多了几家，最火的网红RMBS，以及除了内存接口还能做铜/光 互连的网红ALAB，全能的Marvell，都在这儿
还有MCHP
这一类的PE都特别高，老美好像喜欢这个…

7 代理/分销：
这个我觉得都是涨起来然后要死的公司，或者没球技术含量的，潮水退去都是裸泳
ARW，AVT，台湾俩还有中国卖海力士的香农芯创，华强科技，力源信息，我觉得这些都是垃圾，非主赛道，没啥意思，看都不用看。

8 NOR Flash 垂直赛道—利基/车规存储：
华邦电子，旺宏外就是长鑫的兄弟——兆王——兆易创新，这是一个港股比A股贵的标，说明外资看好，A股��般的标，值得重视
然后就是最近火的北京君正，靠着机器人大脑火的，其实就是因为能做这个垂类存储。
然后，东芯股份，普冉股份，聚辰股份（做检测芯片），复旦微电（FPGA军工芯片），恒烁股份，国内这几个我觉得未来能卷出来几个，需要注意的是武汉新芯，还没上市，上市要关注

9 SSD主控芯片
全球龙头SIMO慧荣（100亿美金），群联、联芸、得一微，以及企业级 SSD/SCM 方向的大普微
/内存模组/品牌厂 没啥意思，这些公司

10 企业级存储
Dell，Hpe，IBM，Everpure，NTAP，NTNX，国内的就是联想，中科曙光之类的，我感觉这个没啥利润，几乎不用看，知道这些公司和别的公司有共通就可以了

11 嵌入式新型，太早没啥说的

最后就是
设备：中微（3D NAND 高深宽比刻蚀）、拓荆（HBM 混合键合）、华海清科（HBM 减薄）、盛美（海力士发家客户）、芯源微（临时键合）、长川（存储测试机）+ 海外 Lam/AMAT/东电/Besi
材料：雅克（HBM 前驱体）900亿、华海诚科（HBM 塑封 GMC 独家）230亿、联瑞（Low-α 球硅）500亿
捡了核心的Mark下

所有存储的就这么多了我觉得，没啥再细节需要说的了…

我现在持仓很乱，我觉得是还没分清楚到底哪一个可以有大增长，因为这个赛道已经被人研究的太透彻了，没有太大弹性空间，如果要上存储赛道，只能拿着一部分稳+一部分弹性等大盘。

我现在拿的有：
长线仓：海力士，闪迪，兆易创新，北京君正，澜起科技，聚辰股份，天山电子

观察仓：RMBS，雅克科技，华海诚科，连瑞新材

未来：长鑫，长江，武汉长存

再多嘴一句存储产业总览（按毛利从高到低）：
HBM(热数据带宽) → CXL内存池化/内存接口/RCD-MRCD → DRAM → NAND → 颗粒代理/分销 → NOR利基 → SSD/模组(薄利) → 存储系统。

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Samsung to Raise Q3 DRAM Prices by Up to 20%, AI Demand Remains Solid

Korea's memory semiconductor industry is understood to be pushing to raise the average selling price (ASP) of commodity DRAM in the third quarter of this year by as much as 20% versus the prior quarter.

With supply shortages persisting across the entire product lineup on the back of AI infrastructure investment, memory makers are interpreted to be extending a strategy of maximizing profitability. The pace of price increases will slow thereafter, but industry sources say an extremely high profitability trend will continue into next year as well.

According to the industry on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics is in negotiations with customers targeting a Q3 DRAM ASP increase of up to around 20% versus the previous quarter.

DRAM prices have shown a sharp upward trend, driven by aggressive AI infrastructure investment from global big tech firms. This is because supply shortages have intensified across the entire product lineup, spanning not only server DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM) but also low power DRAM (LPDDR), which is drawing attention in the AI inference space.

Samsung's DRAM ASP increase is especially pronounced relative to SK Hynix. The industry assessment is that commodity DRAM, which carries high price volatility, accounts for a large share of Samsung's total output, and that the company has been the most aggressive in raising prices.

In fact, Samsung's first quarter DRAM ASP rose by the low 90% range versus the prior quarter. The second quarter is estimated at around 50 to 60%. Furthermore, it is targeting an increase of around 20% in the third quarter as well. SK Hynix, which has a relatively high share of HBM production, is estimated to come in somewhat below this level.

A semiconductor industry official said, "Samsung is negotiating very aggressively on pricing in the third quarter this year. We understand it will also raise LPDDR, which has recently seen severe bottlenecks in both server and mobile, by more than 20%," adding, "That said, it is not certain whether customers will accept all of this."

DRAM prices are seen as highly likely to remain stable going forward. Although the pace of DRAM price increases is gradually easing, the share of long term agreements (LTAs) signed with key customers is steadily expanding.

For example, Micron of the United States disclosed through its earnings release late last month that it had signed a total of 16 long term agreements with customers. These contracts carry binding commitments to purchase a certain volume and set a price floor that guarantees very high margins. This is interpreted as reflecting customers' judgment that memory supply and demand will remain tight over the medium to long term.

The recently raised possibility of Meta entering the cloud business is also not expected to weigh on memory demand as a negative. Some had read Meta's move to sell its internal surplus computing resources externally as a sign that its AI production capacity may already be sufficiently built out.

However, Meta has maintained an aggressive investment stance, in April raising its annual AI infrastructure investment plan from an initial 115 billion to 135 billion dollars to 125 billion to 145 billion dollars.

Another industry official explained, "With the expansion of LTAs that include price floors and HBM price renegotiations, there will be no sharp decline in the DRAM market next year either," adding, "In Meta's case, it is more accurate to view this as a way to efficiently utilize its internal computing resources."

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@eenen0609 @AQUA_AUG 你是不是认为你笑了你就是对的？日本人都是你这种吗？

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@amitp1389 @MattooShashank 你认识的都是想去印度的吗？

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@FreeVoice023 @grok 这是什么时候的事

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@xingyunjuanzhou @AISuperDomain 因为你长大了,还不听话,不愿意老老实实干苦力,还想跟大哥分蛋糕,大哥就要搞你.大哥心里你不配吃香喝辣

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@trq212 @IntCyberDigest Anthropic就是种族歧视的先锋,垃圾公司

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

所以 Claude 查中国用户的方式，是检查你是否使用了某些 VPN 代理、是否电脑处于中国时区，以及电脑主机名里，是否包含一些特定关键词（如中文或实验室名称）。

如果触发这些条件，它们会给用户回复贴上隐形水印。

目前研究人员表示，通过反编译确定能复现这一情况。

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@BCeasoul16174 @AISuperDomain @MilukunK 到了洋大人，就成了你跪舔的对象，越是歧视你你越舔，你说你贱不贱吧

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@BCeasoul16174 @AISuperDomain @MilukunK 国内发不出来，你不知道吗？洋人算是让你舔明白了

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@BCeasoul16174 @AISuperDomain @MilukunK 国内封号我们也骂，怎么？到了这是外国人你就开始舔了？

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@withfolyd 阿里不蒸馏A社也会搞你，这只是个理由而已

[International Cyber Digest @IntCyberDigest]

‼️ BREAKING: Anthropic has embedded hidden spyware-like code in Claude Code that covertly targets Chinese users. It then sends information regarding every user by injecting it into their prompt message.

Claude Code is sending info like timezone, proxy and possible AI Lab connections into the system prompt in ways Chinese users can't notice.

A coding agent with repo and command permissions should not silently hide routing metadata inside prompts. This is a serious breach of user trust.

[川沐｜Trumoo🐮 @xiaomustock]

芯片的设备厂应该才刚刚开始，
存储三家公司赚的1/3可能都要流向这三家。
科磊 $KLAC 应用材料 $AMAT 泛林 $LRCX

[Troll Football @TrollFootball]

Japan going back home

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@BCeasoul16174 @AISuperDomain 他写啥是他的自由,他这么干找骂是我们的自由

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Nikkei Asia reported that Chinese smartphone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo have cut their shipment targets for this year by as much as 30%.

“Even planning for new product launches next year has become extremely difficult, because we have no idea how we can actually secure the components needed for those new products,” Nikkei quoted a source as saying.

In particular, the supply shortage is reportedly severe not only for memory, but also for certain types of printed circuit boards and other supporting chips.

[川沐｜Trumoo🐮 @xiaomustock]

从股权和人事关系上看，
万润科技于长江存储，
很可能相当于
兆易创新于长鑫存储。
老板们可以研究一下，A股我也玩不明白。

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@xiaocongcong88 太晚了，真不看…

[HazelnutXin | 榛心 @hazelnutxin]

@oragnes Anthropic是个最近经常考第一的沙雕