KD86

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

Now we are doing a bunch of OTC deals, I've had a bunch of DMs asking me when the lock up period ends for each deal. I totally understand why. Historically, VCs and non-community whales typically dump on everyone as soon as their vesting period has ended, and so the world of Crypto is understandably wary.

Of course I can't share contractual details. But rest assured, we have zero intention of insta-dumping!

With where I believe Bittensor is going, WHY would I dump? I genuinely believe that DSV will be the best performing hedge fund on the planet over the next 3 years. All for a very simple strategy that anyone can copy.

But let's first start with some realistically probable assumptions by the end of 36 months...

Assumption 1: TAO circulating supply will be about 12m and market cap (I believe) will be at least $150b so (P = MC/CS) = $12 500.

Assumption 2: In about 24 months, the pre dTAO subnets will undergo their halvings and so there will be constant buy pressure per block by the protocol as there will be 0.5T and 0.25 alpha going into each LP!

Assumption 3: Alpha yields are very high at the moment. They of course get halved when a subnet has a halving and as more people enter alpha yields will drop, so let's pessimistically assume Year 1 = 80% APY, Year 2 = 60% APY and Year 3 = 30% APY.

Assumption 4: For this example, you're fully investing in alpha and you have an average alpha price of 0.01T.

Let's say you start with 250 TAO, here's some simple portfolio maths with no real trading:

1.) 250 fully invested in alpha at an average price of 0.01T = 25k alpha. After 12 months at 80% APY = 55 549.90 alpha. That number may not make sense, but 80% APY that compounds daily is MORE than just x1.8! After 12 months at 60% APY = 88 879.84 alpha. After 12 months at 30% APY = 115 543.79 alpha. 3.62X in alpha from doing nothing...

2.) As time progresses, with the halvings thrown in etc, the sum of all subnets will also rise over time. So in my opinion, it's unlikely alpha price will fall over 36 months. Unless your subnets die. But even if a project/company dies, the SN slot doesn't and is prime real estate in Bittensor. So someone will buy the slot. So let's say you only get a doubling in alpha price from 0.01T to 0.02T! This is pessimistic as MANY subnets have already done many multiples once they breach 0.01. Well 115 543.79 alpha x 0.02T = 2310.87 TAO.

3.) 2310.87 x $12500 = $28.88m 🤯

This does NOT account for:
- You tweaking and rebalancing the portfolio wisely.
- You trading/sidestepping for a bit during a bear market.
- Many of your subnets will do many multiples...

$100k = $28.88m sounds absolutely ABSURD. But we've seen THOUSANDS of stories of early Bitcoin adopters or miners getting crazy outcomes like this. And we still do. And I've been really conservative with these assumptions/maths.

So can you see why I'm reluctant to let go of my alpha and TAO? And why I'm all in...?

Do your future self a favour and don't fumble the bag...

[vitrupo @vitrupo]

Eric Schmidt says intelligence is about to decouple from us.

“The computers are now doing self-improvement.. They don’t have to listen to us anymore.”

Within six years: a mind smarter than the sum of humans -- scaled, recursive, free. We have no language for what’s coming.

[Teng Yan @tengyanAI]

https://t.co/ateEALlw7c

[Andy ττ @bittingthembits]

If Bittensor markets were fully developed AI startups, their combined market valuation could range between $100B - $200B+, competing with centralized Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and CoreWeave. That's what Dyanmic $TAO is about to do. Based on 64 Subnets, what happens when we scale to thousands? With 21 million design and halvenings!

Here is how:

I'll group these subnets into key AI industry sectors that align with their functionality.

▫️AI Model Development (Foundation Model Providers)

•Comparable Companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, Hugging Face

•Subnets: SN 9, SN 29, SN 39, SN 11, SN 21, SN 37, SN 38, SN 3, SN 5, SN 35, SN 56, SN 58

•Market Valuation Estimate: $50B+ (OpenAI alone is estimated at $90B)

•Subnet Value Range: $100M - $3B each, depending on specialization

▫️Generative AI (Text, Image, and Audio)

•Comparable Companies: Midjourney, Stability AI, OpenAI (DALL-E, Whisper)

•Subnets: SN 4 (Targon), SN 19, SN 2, SN 54, SN 17, SN 18, SN 23, SN 26, SN 50, SN 46

•Market Valuation Estimate: $30B+

•Subnet Value Range: $100M - $2B

▫️Agentic AI (Autonomous Agents & AI Assistants)

•Comparable Companies: Adept AI, OpenAI (GPT Agents), AutoGPT, Rabbit R1

•Subnets: SN 1 (Apex), SN 45, SN 62 (AgentTao), SN 59, SN 20, SN 10

•Market Valuation Estimate: $20B+

•Subnet Value Range: $500M - $2B

▫️Predictive AI & AI Trading

•Comparable Companies: Numerai, PredictIt, Jane Street (AI-powered HFT)

•Subnets: SN 6 (Infinite Games), SN 30 (BetTensor), SN 41 (Sportstensor), SN 28 (Foundry S&P 500 Oracle), SN 44 (Score Predict), SN 48 (NextPlace AI), SN 57 (Gaia)

•Market Valuation Estimate: $10B+

•Subnet Value Range: $200M - $1.5B

▫️AI Compute Providers

•Comparable Companies: CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, Together AI

•Subnets: SN 51 (Celium), SN 64 (Chutes), SN 12 (Horde), SN 27 (Neural Internet)

•Market Valuation Estimate: $15B+

•Subnet Value Range: $500M - $5B each

▫️AI Data Pipelines & Data Labeling

•Comparable Companies: Scale AI ($14B), Snorkel AI ($1B), Labelbox ($1.3B)

•Subnets: SN 24, SN 13, SN 33, SN 40, SN 42, SN 52

•Market Valuation Estimate: $10B+

•Subnet Value Range: $300M - $2B

▫️AI Components & Tooling (Model Optimization, Deployment, Fine-tuning)

•Comparable Companies: Hugging Face, MosaicML ($1.3B)

•Subnets: SN 47, SN 31, SN 15, SN 49

•Market Valuation Estimate: $8B+

•Subnet Value Range: $300M - $1.5B

▫️AI-Powered Tools (Specialized AI Applications)

•Comparable Companies: Quora (Poe), Perplexity AI, BloombergGPT, DeepL

•Subnets: SN 34, SN 61, SN 32, SN 53, SN 8, SN 14, SN 22, SN 54

•Market Valuation Estimate: $8B+

•Subnet Value Range: $200M - $1.5B

▫️Scientific Research (DeSci)

•Comparable Companies: Protocol Labs, Biotech-focused AI startups

•Subnets: SN 25, SN 43, SN 36

•Market Valuation Estimate: $5B+

•Subnet Value Range: $200M - $1B

▫️General Infrastructure (Decentralized AI Infrastructure)

•Comparable Companies: Bittensor itself, Akash Network

•Subnets: SN 16 (BitAds), SN 7 (SubVortex)

•Market Valuation Estimate: $5B+

•Subnet Value Range: $300M - $1B

Step 2: Summing the Estimated Market Value

Adding up the projected values from each category:

While this is a broad estimate, AI markets often have overlapping applications, so a reasonable adjusted valuation would be:

Low estimate: $100B (accounting for overlap and market competition)

High estimate: $200B+ (if the network captures significant adoption)

▫️Valuation Per Subnet

•Top-tier subnets (major LLMs, compute, predictive AI): $2B - $5B+

•Mid-tier subnets (agentic AI, data pipelines, AI tools): $500M - $2B

•Smaller specialized subnets (niche AI markets, early-stage growth): $100M - $500M

This analysis shows the incredible potential upside of $TAO, as these markets are still in early development stages. If adoption accelerates and these AI markets keep growing at their current pace, Bittensor could capture a massive share of decentralized AI's future market.

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

Perfect parallel trend lines exist in ALL assets. But they don't perpetuate over long epochs. However, over an epoch of about 6-12 months, they're rather good.

Right now, $ETH and look pretty similar on the log chart. My little holes are pessimistically conservative figures for end of 2025 based solely on this chart:

ETH around $15k
TAO around $9k

Personally, I believe TAO will be much higher. I've always maintained it will be 2-4% of total crypto market cap and total crypto market cap to be between $6-15T by the end of this year...

[kian @kian_sasan]

gm Solana

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

Here is some Sunday homework for you all. And a general thought process all crypto participants should mentally harbour.

1.) The main 2017 cycle narrative was L1s. Find the top 5 L1 alts in that cycle and look at their peak market share percentage.

2.) The main 2021 cycle narrative were Smart Contract platforms and DeFi. Find the top 5 alts in that cycle and look at their peak market share percentage.

3.) The main 2025 cycle narrative will be/already is AI. Have a look at their current market share compared to the market share that the main narrative alts have during peak cycle.

I'm going to give you the answers here, but you still need to do the homework yourself.

What I've found is that the main narrative alts hit between 2-5% of total market share. And that they go from sub 0.5% to 2-5% in a flash. Like 90% of the move happening in 10% of the time right towards the end of the cycle. But also some peak in late summer just before cycle highs.

This is why pretty much 90% of my portfolio is $TAO. In 20 years of trading, I've never seen such an asymmetric trade in my life. Especially on a risk adjusted basis. As such, it's most likely going to be the easiest 10-30X you'll see, all whilst not exposing yourself to the extreme risks of memes. Yeah some memes will 100X, but you're also dancing with the other side of that double edged sword called risk!

Bittensor (TAO) is the opposite of Open AI. And not only is it riding the AI tsunami hype wave, it's also straddling the open source wave as well. It's a tremendous AI gravity well for talent and capital. Which is why I'm pretty darn confident it will remain as the biggest AI crypto project this cycle. To the point that some of its subnets will have a bigger market cap than TAOs competitors. For instance, take decentralised file storage that Filecoin does, yeah well I reckon the file storage subnet in Bittensor will surpass FIL. The same for many other niches too.

So when I cast my eyes on the total crypto market cap chart, it's a pretty safe bet that we will see something between $6T-$13T.

So assuming a paltry 2% of market cap for TAO at a dismal $6T total market cap, with a rough estimate of 10.5m circulating supply on 1st Dec 2025, that gives a $TAO price of $11428. Hell, even if TAO hits 1% that's a $5714 price.

Personally, I'll start slowly phasing out once we have central bank stim pumps and TAO reaching 2% market share. But I do indeed expect to see something like a steady 3% market share at a total market cap of around $7T. That's $20k TAO.

Of course, there are going to be the inevitable coward like anonymous trolls in the comment section saying all sorts, but I strongly encourage you to go through these logical calculations yourself. If you do, you'll no doubt end up at a similar ball park figure...

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

Whoa! Can't WAIT to see this #bittensor doc coming out soon!

People look at price, and think it's a dead duck. But are oblivious to the fact that there are 33 active subnets right now. That's 33 completely separate AI start ups with a team of 1-12 coders.

In each subnet there are over 200 miners all competing with each other improving the algorithms and whatever machine learning on that subnet.

Everyone has to be performing well otherwise they're booted off. All of this is simply the tip of the iceberg. Meanwhile the Foundation are constantly tweaking and making changes that hinders their profitability but maximises the longevity of the project for the future.

Const and Ala are gearing this to still here in 50 years and couldn't care about the price or what's happening in 5 years. In 20 years of Trading and Investing, I've never seen such a lop-sided asymmetric trade...

[Plan𐤊 @MikoGenno]

#Kaspa power law model price.

Fair value for $kas price expectations of this model -

0.5$ by December 2024
$1.80 by December 2025
$3.5 by december 2026
$9 by December 2027
$11 by December 2028
$12.50 by December 2029

[KD86 @header7121]

@realbullrunking done 🫡

[KD86 @header7121]

@travladd Request on the way 🙏

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

I'm a MASSIVE $KAS fan. More than most.

But more importantly, I'm an investor/trader first and foremost and believe that getting sucked into tribal mentally will only result in your financial 'rekt-ness'. Like even discussing anything bearish quickly results a torrent of abuse from online strangers lacking context.

Currently, I am observing an almost identical exuberance to what I saw in BTC in 2019. $BTC reflexively bounced hard from its cycle low in late 2018 around $3000 and pumped hard to just shy of $14k in a short period. Everyone got blind and greedy with 'future price action'. And I was shouting that a big dip was inbound and got a flood of "Siam weak paper hands FUDder" type comments etc.

$BTC then crashed. Just pointing out some basic TA caution doesn't mean someone is a hater. Or troll. Or hates the project. Just means someone is looking at the chart with a different perspective, that's all.

Fast forward 4 years, I'm seeing the same pumpage-mentality in the #Kaspa community about recent price action. And I'm concerned some people may get in over their heads.

Long story short, every fractal cycle (watch my $KAS videos about it) has a Trap 5 flat top compression, it breaks out hard for 2 weeks, then has a 6-8 week pullback. But BEFORE the pullback, just after the pump, it creates a symmetrical compression. This gives people the illusion that it's coiling for another big move up. Alas, it doesn't. Here's a pic below of the last cycle. It's eerily similar to the price action we are seeing in KAS now.

Of course, I HOPE I'm wrong about this. I would LOVE nothing more than for $KAS to give me a big middle finger to my logarithmic regression band model and break out north. Just like $BTC did in 2013. I would love nothing more than to be wrong about this. Below is how I see KAS shaping over the next 2 years. I hope I'm underestimating it...

So yeah, just my 2 cents. For full disclosure, I've already done my $KAS sidestep. Started phasing out at 15.3 cents and phased back in around the 13 cent level. Thereby increasing the stash. So I'm just sat here HODLing now and observing with a keen eye.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. But even if I'm correct, it's still no biggie. So what if it retraces to 5-8 cents for a month or two? Just do the maths if it hits at least $50B market cap over the next 18 months.

I'm here for the ride. Hope this helps folks!

[siamkidd @SiamKidd]

Whenever you're in doubt about the near Crypto future, just remind yourself of a few things. It will help you stay calm whilst people around you flap and dribble their crypto through their weak hands:

1.) We are near the end of the yellow accumulation zone. Every cycle from this point is basically up for the next 2 years, other than a little dip just before or after the halving. Every bear market commences around 18 months after the halving and ALWAYS tops +/- 30 from 1st Dec. So the next bear market is most likely to begin Dec 2025/Jan 2026. And probably only a 50% crash then due to the much bigger market it will be by then.

2.) Institutions are imminently inbound. Spot ETFs etc. Retail market managed to peak MC at $2.8T! Imagine what institutions will do! $10T market cap is the absolute minimum in my opinion by Dec 2025. But to be safe, a rough range between $4.4T to $11.8T most likely won't be far off the mark... This is probably the last cycle as we know it as institutional money will flatten/smoothen the volatility of BTC. However, it will balloon blue chip crypto. Even more so the ones with good tokenomics. E.g. $BTC, $ETH, $KAS & $TAO etc...

3.) If Blackrock etc are now entering Crypto, don't you think Crypto is going to be around for a long time now? This simple announcement has just made Crypto a permanent global asset and massively de-risked your portfolio!

4.) 93.11% of BTC is now circulating and that emission curve is flattening fast. It's going to take another 117 years to get the remaining 6.89% of supply floating! So strap in for one of the biggest supply shocks human finance has ever seen with dwindling emissions and gargantuan capital inflows. None of this is new news. Bitcoin Jesus (@saylor) has been saying this for years now.

5.) Exchanges have dramatically less crypto now than they ever used to. I tip my hat to FTX! Always said that FTX blowing up was a GOOD thing for crypto... It helped everyone realise "Not your keys, not your crypto". To be honest, I'd also rather like it if Tether finally imploded and also Binance... This industry needs to shake off some old and big bad actors...

6.) You are still very early to the game. Just ask random people in the street if they own BTC. Very few will have. Now ask them if they store it in their own hard wallet. Even fewer will have. Then ask them if they own something like $KAS or $TAO or $DNX or $GFAL or $BEAM. It will be a resounding no!

7.) There is now much more awareness and acceptance of crypto now than during previous cycles. Retail is much more informed thanks to the internet. Especially due to the freedom of speech, uncensored digital town square which is X (Twitter). We have real time access to real news now. So switch off that TV with BBC and CNN etc. Those journalists are just trawling X for juicy articles anyway lol. As such, there are WAY more strong hands at play now. People are realising that this is the last cycle which they can front-run the Big Boys by getting in now.

8.) Despite things looking bullish, this cycle may not look like ones in the past. Certain sectors may just rocket. Gaming, proper Layer 1s which don't need bodge taped Layer 2s to function (e.g. $KAS makes every Layer 1 and 2 obsolete) and Real World Asset tokenisation and AI. I'd go as far as saying RWA tokenisation will do a Borg style assimilation of the entire real estate world over the next 10 years and more. It's just so archaic that it takes endless fees, middlemen and months to buy or sell a property! And it's so binary that you have to buy/sell all of a house or not. There's going to be a sweet spot where you can own like 26% of a house, have all the benefits of ownership and none of the drawbacks. This would unlock endless capital into Crypto.

9.) But I digress. Medium term looks rosy as my pink Asian cheeks when I drink alcohol! But short term, I wouldn't put it past Blackrock to orchestrate one more tree-shake just like we saw that coordinated FUD attack on crypto the other day. So stay strong folks, now is the time to just strap in and enjoy the ride till Dec 2025! Cheesy post over, hope it helps!

[KD86 @header7121]

@KaspaGuru @binance @coinbase @okx @SiamKidd sidestep on market sell? come on, you should know better buddy 😜

[Mr. Kaspa @KaspaGuru]

Someone just market sold 10 million $KAS which sent the price from .152 to .134

Once we list on more exchanges, these violent dips will not be as prevalent with more liquidity

@binance @coinbase @okx

[Tactical Investing @tacticalinvest_]

Today I reached 15K followers on Twitter. Thank you. Now it’s time to give away some #Kaspa🚀 Retweet for your chance to win 1,000 KAS🔥 That’s it.

[Davinci Jeremie @Davincij15]

A friend of min said to look into kaspa:qqzezc4djgptc5da2x20dcau72kq5339xk4ekhnydtd802tdmk3cw8lywcrp2

[Unko J - Bini Signals Worldtour 2026 @Unko_Jah]

$KAS will trade around this parallel channel. If $KAS will hit the top of the channel then it be 3x from $0.09.

[Tyler Bea @skibumtrading]

The nice thing about the @X platform is that it holds you accountable, for better and worse

I was early to be bearish at the last #BTC cycle peak, and I was early to be bullish at the bottom

I am also remaining high conviction bullish on $KAS until Top 10

Receipts below 📜 👇