Brian McGough

Co-founder of Hedgeye with 30 years of experience covering retail. Was Executive Director at Morgan Stanley, ran the consumer franchise at Copper Arch Capital.

[Luke Eissler @HedgeyeRetail_2]

$AMZN Fastest AWS growth in 18 quarters on a $169B annual run rate. Maybe the market will start appreciating the ROIC story.

Underinvesting would have been the risk...
@HedgeyeRetail

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$ADDYY drawdown today looks overdone. The market focused on +1% footwear, +2% Lifestyle, and higher marketing spend dragging EBIT, but the call told a better story.

Management didn’t expect footwear to grow this Q and deliberately pulled Samba/Lifestyle product from wholesale rather than compete with discounted inventory from major brands. DTC still grew +25%, sell-through remained ahead of sell-in, and the footwear order book should improve into Q4.

I also don’t view the marketing spend as a negative. Adidas spent into the World Cup while Nike was dropping the ball, and U.S. retailers made money on the product. That should lead to larger buys and more shelf space, particularly as the brand gains more relevance with men, and support North America growth over the next few Qs.

China is also underappreciated. The business is already at a 27% EBIT margin, while Nike’s exit from Chinese e-commerce platforms gives Adidas a chance to take more share while brand heat remains strong.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$FND results far from remarkable (ex. tariff refunds). But this name has been trading on comp, which improved and to be fair accelerated on a monthly basis throughout the quarter. QTD back in decel mode with monthly compares ramping and more importantly there is a structural ceiling on earnings growth until housing turns.

@HedgeyeRetail

[Brian McGough @HedgeyeRetail]

[With data centers being built, workers come to Boot Barn for footwear]...per the company. So you expect us to believe than now this dog is a play on AI Capex? C'mon man...$BOOT

[Brian McGough @HedgeyeRetail]

We're Short $BOOT, and this 2Q guidance looks terrible. Guiding store comps -1% for a company with an egregious 10% hurdle rate to leverage occupancy costs poses massive risk to this model falling apart.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$VFC (Active Short) reported Q1'27 revenue of -5% (+1% ex-Dickies), adj EPS -$0.27, in line with our estimate. Solid topline beat, but the details tell us where we actually are in the turnaround.

Vans -8% is a blended number hiding a split management laid out themselves: DTC running "a lot better" than -8%, wholesale "a lot worse."

That's the whole problem with the guide. Getting from -9% cc in H1 to -2% cc or better in H2 means wholesale swings ~10pts in 2Qs. DTC is already working, so it's more of a wholesale-reorders bet. Yes, there's a lagged-effect case, product winning in DTC eventually pulls wholesale. But that product isn't in the channel at volume yet, and the only support Bracken offered for the swing was order book "conversations" he declined to quantify.

Bracken also admitted Vans "milked it too much" at its 20%+ margin peak and won't get back there. So even a full recovery is a structurally lower-margin brand than the long-term model assumes.
@HedgeyeRetail

[Brian McGough @HedgeyeRetail]

We're Short $BOOT, and this 2Q guidance looks terrible. Guiding store comps -1% for a company with an egregious 10% hurdle rate to leverage occupancy costs poses massive risk to this model falling apart.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$NKE Great way to cannibalize the Nike Mind platform. Also feels like the pool of people who would actually buy/need this is pretty small.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$LVMH returns to (organic) growth in F&LG, though lapping a down 9% from last year. Segment makes up ~75%+ of the consolidated profit now facing tougher compares. Fx easing should help. Watches + Jewelry showing accelerating momentum and margin expansion. Asia (ex. Japan) continuing to grow of the bottom and U.S. remains strong.

Still sidelined on this one with tougher base effects down the pike, Middle East implications, and F&LG growth sustainability remaining a question mark in our eyes.
$MC.PA

@HedgeyeRetail

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$DECK margins coming in far worse than guided. SG&A deleverage of ~255bps vs the implied ~180bps while raising EPS by less than the beat. "Investing for out year leverage" doesn't work if Hoka hits the top of the S-curve.

@HedgeyeRetail
@HedgeyeRetail_4

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$Etsy sold Depop to $eBay this year, and you can already see the focus is back on the core marketplace: better seller app, faster listing creation, cleaner review data, custom listing options, and an in-depth off-site ads dashboard.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Texas Shoe Ranch taking share from $BOOT on Tik Tok shop. Ankle Biters coming for the category as Western growth slows. Margins nosedive when comps come under pressure.
@HedgeyeRetail

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Most of our long-term $ETSY thesis centers on agentic commerce driving incremental traffic and conversion, but the seller-to-seller community is a second moat that the street barely models.

The “Etsy Sellers” subreddit sees ~91k weekly visits vs ~41k for “eBay Sellers”, with posts skewing heavily toward peer help with orders and shop optimization rather than platform complaints. This is the kind of horizontal support that boosts seller retention, making the marketplace more resilient in downturns.

$EBAY $ETSY $AMZN @HedgeyeRetail

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$HELE put up a huge beat this morning and raised FY27 guidance, yet the stock is down ~5%. Uzzell is rolling out a “Helen of Troy Offense” turnaround reminiscent of Hill’s “Sport Offense” at $NKE. Limited proof it works so far.
What jumped out on the call: Management said they’re reducing exposure to lower‑margin channels, but once again credited mass retailers ($WMT, $TGT, $AMZN, $DKS) for most of the distribution momentum, which is consistent with the last few years. HELE will keep leaning on those channels until they inevitably crack, at which point I’d expect management to reframe that stress as a “margin opportunity”, with no higher‑margin channels to lean on. @HedgeyeRetail @HedgeyeRetail_3

[TickerTrends 🔬 @tickerplus]

$ADS is outpacing $NKE in World Cup social activity.

Adidas is taking 69% share of combined World Cup mention volume vs Nike at 31%, with the same lead showing up on TikTok views at 59% vs 41%.

[Luke Eissler @HedgeyeRetail_2]

$OLLI Closing below $70... Store visits going from bad to worse. June looks horrible with another tough base effect in July to close out the Q.

In an environment where consumers are prioritizing value? @HedgeyeRetail

[Luke Eissler @HedgeyeRetail_2]

$ELF Almost 500k followers in 2 weeks...

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

The issue is also that $ADDYY rolled out the WC product in November 2025, while $NKE was still rolling out golf products in March 2026! $NKE underestimated the level of competition it would face in its own market when the WC came to town. I'm afraid $ADDYY will win this one...

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Salomon putting up crazy #'s right now. Arc'teryx remains the crown jewel for $AS. Multiple constrained on Salomon fad concerns. Still think this name has some juice on the TAIL and tremendous unit/share growth opportunity in the U.S. in particular.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Visited the $ADDYY store on Broadway in NYC this weekend, and it was a zoo. ~25 people waiting to try on Adizero and Samba, with a 20+ person line at the register. $ADDYY is as hot as ever with the World Cup traffic driver trickling down to other categories. (Saturday at 1:32 pm)