Ian Lukasik

Consumer Retail Analyst @ Hedgeye. Not Investment Advice.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Another constructive WC data point for $ADS, $NKE not so much

@HedgeyeRetail

[TickerTrends 🔬 @tickerplus]

World Cup-related app ranking lift is showing up most clearly for PUMA and adidas in TickerTrends data

Current YoY 7-day average app rank change:
$PUM PUMA: +49 spots
$ADS adidas: +17 spots
$NKE Nike: -10 spots

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

The Ray-Ban Meta frames produced by EssilorLuxottica are among the fastest to sell out of any pair of frames at National Vision

Solid proof of concept data point out of $EYE CEO for AI-Glasses space. Story very much in the early innings from adoption, and more importantly tech perspective.

$WRBY $EL.FP $META

@HedgeyeRetail

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

US mortgage rates are choking the housing market:

The 30-year fixed sits at 6.43%, while the average rate on existing mortgages is just 4.4%.

Homeowners won't trade a 4% loan for a 6% one. Buyers can't afford to step in.

Existing home sales are running near a 4.17 million annual pace, close to the slowest in three decades.

More than half of active listings have sat on the market for over 60 days.

The median existing home sold for $429,300 in May, an all-time high.

New single-family sales fell -7.3% in May, pushing new home supply up a full month to 10.3 months, the highest since 2009.

Elevated rates and record prices are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Natural and LGD prices in freefall. $SIG stuck in increasingly competitive low-end market with core banners and ZERO barriers to entry in LGD. Don't think pushing upmarket is the right answer as LGD continues taking share in bridal and fashion desirability will always fall with the bigger names. Up today on premarket upgrade but think this is a perma-share loser over the long term. Sticking with the short here.

@HedgeyeRetail @HedgeyeRetail_4

[Exec Sum @exec_sum]

BREAKING: De Beers dramatically reduced diamond prices across all categories

Prices are now in line with the secondary market, down from the 5%-50% premium that De Beers maintained

That move follows a pullback in Chinese luxury spending and the rising popularity of lab-grown stones

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

@HedgeyeRetail_4 Is there a realistic buyer for the lesser brands? Agree that Osprey is largely defendable...but to your point Hydro saturated and has a competition problem no?

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$NKE dropped the ball this world cup with home-field advantage: not enough inventory, not the right inventory, not posting team USA, and not spending on marketing the event. Handing share to $ADS to capitalize, seeing a lot more of the retro denim shirt...

@HedgeyeRetail

[Darren Rovell @darrenrovell]

Prediction: Nike retailers will be out of official Team USA jerseys by Monday’s game.

They have just put forth a half price replica that has the flag all the way around and no name ($65).

But real jerseys never get reproduced unless US wins it all — just like the Olympics.

Head of Nike inventory planning will get the hook.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Salomon putting up crazy #'s right now. Arc'teryx remains the crown jewel for $AS. Multiple constrained on Salomon fad concerns. Still think this name has some juice on the TAIL and tremendous unit/share growth opportunity in the U.S. in particular.

[WWD @wwd]

Salomon Opens Largest NYC Store Yet in Flatiron https://t.co/VuOFmHC5fr

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

@HedgeyeRetail_4 @HedgeyeRetail Interest continuing to ramp. Functionality improvements should drive increased consideration and adoption in out years. More entrants actually drives awareness and TAM but expecting to see continued acceleration as new utility keeps rolling out.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Oakley x Meta stacking use cases. Big fan of this one in particular. Broader space is just getting going.

$WRBY $EL.FP $META
@HedgeyeRetail

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

3 wks into #worldcup and data showing adidas emerging as early winner. Store (and web) traffic running notably ahead of Nike. Adi capitalizing outside of just jersey sales.
$ADS $NKE
@HedgeyeRetail

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

New Home Sales disappoint while median prices flat YoY. Turnover extremely rate sensitive, S/D equally frozen in this rate environment, ~70% of homeowners locked in under 5%. Housing stocks working today as yields down, still a long way to go.
$RH $WSM $W $FND $HD $LOW

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

New entry level glasses out of Meta. Continuing to make strides in the space with form factor + future AR potential. Wouldn’t be shocked to see WRBY trade off a bit though plenty of share still to go around for the big players. $WRBY $EL.FP $META

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$ADDYY Flipped long last week. Don't underestimate the staying power of the World Cup tailwind, more than just jersey sales. Running firing at the same time. Top line strength has legs, and cost base set up to leverage it.

[WWD @wwd]

Messi Becomes World Cup’s All-time Leading Scorer in Signature Adidas Boot https://t.co/OupzSAuEgV

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

$REAL @HedgeyeRetail @HedgeyeRetail_4

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

The fashion space has fundamentally changed since COVID. Secondhand has consistently outpaced searches for new collections, with secondhand searches seeing search volume 4-6x higher over the last 2 years.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Redfin sellers outnumber buyers by ~47% (widest in 13yrs), but buyer demand at 13yr lows. No buyers to clear it, sellers delisting at highest rate ex-covid, 21% cutting price, housing market remains frozen. $FND $RH
@HedgeyeRetail