Rajesh

DA

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@Kmanoj72152325 Accenture ah bro?

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@ActusDei Global

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Eternal’s Guidance: Real or Investor Bait?

1. Blinkit in 3 yrs: Ebitda Margin 0.3% → 5%; Sales 4X @ 60% CAGR

2. Eternal in 3 yrs: Ebitda → 7X @ $1B

3. Amazon Now 100 cities; Flipkart 1,500 dark stores; both can run @ Zero Ebitda

4. Why the hype? For exit liquidity?

FACTS:

Selling Future Dreams

a. Deepender Goyal: Eternal's Sales will be 2X in 2 yrs; Adjusted Ebitda will increase 7X in 3 yrs to $1 billion.

b. To achieve this Ebitda of $1B (₹9,400 crores), Blinkit’s Ebitda Margin must increase from the current 0.3% to 5%. (“More confident than ever” to achieve this margin, says CEO Albinder.)

c. Sales Maturity: Blinkit says its top 8 cities have 90% pin code coverage (means, already saturated). Sales growth of 60% CAGR will come from smaller cities (where consumption is low, margins are low, local kirana shops dominate.)

d. Blinkit has no moat, no pricing power, and faces high competitive intensity. Amazon Now announced yesterday they are coming to 100 cities with 1,000 micro-fulfillment centers. UBS note said Flipkart Minutes (Walmart) plans 1,500 dark stores in 2026.

e. How will Blinkit’s Ebitda margin grow from 0.3% to 5-6% (company’s guidance) when Amazon & Walmart have the reputation and capacity to operate at zero margins till competition is finished? Both global giants are still not profitable in India after decades.

f. Zomato Q4FY26: QoQ sales growth was negative @ -0.9%. Blinkit QoQ sales growth was only 8.2%. Even if we adjust for seasonal quarterly variations, it is going to be hard to achieve the following guidance:

Blinkit: Sales @ 60% CAGR for next 12 quarters.

➡️ To achieve this kind of sales growth, not only store count must increase every quarter, but also sales per store (sales per sq. ft.) must grow every quarter.

Eternal: Ebitda in 3 yrs @ $1 billion (7X of FY26 Ebitda) by FY29. It means, absolute Ebitda must grow @ 18% CAGR and Ebitda Margin must be 5% for next 12 quarters.

➡️ To achieve Ebitda margin expansion from 0.3% to 5%, Blinkit may have to sell mobile phones, televisions, and ACs, and not just groceries.

Mgmt Guidance vs. Our Estimate

Guidance:

Zomato Sales: 20% CAGR
Blinkit Sales: 60% CAGR
Ebitda Margin: 5-6%
Timeline $1B Ebitda: 3 YRS

Our Estimate:

Zomato Sales: 15% CAGR
Blinkit Sales: 40% CAGR
Ebitda Margin: 3-4%
Timeline $1B Ebitda: 6 YRS

INTERPRETATION: In our estimate, Eternal has priced in 6 years of future growth already (current PE is 1,027). So, for the PE multiple to normalize, the stock price may remain flat for the next 6 years.

Lack of Accountability

In the U.S., shareholders routinely come together to file class action lawsuits against companies for issuing over-optimistic forward-looking guidance.

When the company misses the guidance, the Board of Directors can be investigated to determine if their guidance was deliberately misleading to trap small investors.

In India, you may have to take your complaint to SEBI. But the entire financial ecosystem in India is designed to transfer the hard-earned wealth of small investors to the pockets of promoters and large operators.

Endquote

Warren Buffett: Life and Legacy (14 Jan, 2026, Premiered on CNBC)

Host: What do you think is stupid in business these days?

Buffett: I’ll give you an example. I think it’s very stupid for CEOs to emphasize during investor calls: “Here’s what we are going to do.”

Believe me, I've been on 20 corporate boards aside from Berkshire. I’ve seen a lot of that behaviour by CEOs. They do not realize the impact on millions of people when they play with numbers.

@arabicatrader

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@anulagarwal @rapidobikeapp And one more thing if you are male your phone number can be seen by rapido driver directly..they can call you even after the trip end/cancelled, for females it’s not

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@cromaretail Issue is resolved.. Thank you🙏@cromaretail @tata_neu

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

Hi @cromaretail @tata_neu I purchased iphone17 from croma store and they promised me 10% neucoins(5% from bank +5% additonal from croma) as per the offer. its been more than 80 days from the pruchase date still neu coins not credited. No resoultion even after mutiple follwups

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@tata_neu Any update on the issue? I raised the complaint long back with @cromaretail , I don’t know how many days you take to solve the issue? It’s been like 3 weeks you guys still working, shame on you

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@tata_neu Do you have any details of my complaint? how are you going to highlight without having any details

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@drnstocks Apollo LC where?

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@NaveenkSakinala @KommawarSwapnil Yeah I do agree, but functionality is like that since many years

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@ChanderBhatia01 Yeah, Leverage correct

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@suritalreja I agree , even I am struggling to refer.. but when need cards for discounts they simply call and ask me

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@shivrockstar @adeshjainj what's was the auction price?

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@ICICIBank_Care @ICICIBank The same bank which cares about 0.13 paisa that I paid them reported to cibil for late payment, now they zeroised my account which has 0.19paisa excess amount without my consent. What is this? @ICICIBank @ICICIBank_Care #ccgeek #RBI

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

Here comes the cunning bank @ICICIBank_Care @ICICIBank raised a complaint to close the card, and before they close, questioned about the information reported to cibil still no response for that even after so many days

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@ICICIBank_Care A curious case of 0.13 paisa outstanding reported by @ICICIBank to Cibil as not paid in the year 2023 which affected my Cibil score very badly and there customer service from twitter calls me without knowing the exact issue #ccgeek 1/1

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@ICICIBank_Care @ICICIBank and talking about the 0.19 paisa excess credit in my account. I had sent an reply please check and respond @ICICIBank_Care #ccgeek

[Rajesh @hello2raj]

@VijayKedia1 😥