A few thoughts.
There was always going to be a response to Ukraine targeting Shadow Fleet vessels, while these energy infrastructure attacks will effect civilians, the point for Russia was to shut down logistics, the ports and at least a portion of Ukraine's economy. They did so with shaheds and missiles because they are the most effective weapons Russia has right now.
"The most radical solution is to cut Ukraine off from the sea, then piracy will be impossible in principle," Putin.
While they may not have an effective Black Sea Fleet to stop transits of vessels, the economic portion of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea was at least temporarily hindered today. What is notable though is that it's unlikely he had a major effect on the USVs which are threatening his Shadow Fleet. Russia still has a difficult time finding a solution to that and their most notable response was another strike on a civilian ship headed out of Ukraine carrying an agricultural cargo. They have only done this once before and it was meant to send a message then, as is this.
Who takes the next step in this duel will be instructive for how escalatory this gets. Keep watching.
https://t.co/RNs2p2VpPb
This morning @UA_NAVY reports that the outbound Chemical Tanker VIVA (IMO: 9156539) who was loaded with Sunflower Oil was struck by a Russian UAV in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ukraine, but outside the limits of the actions of Ukrainian PPO. ⬇️
A short time ago the CENK T (IMO 7528635) was struck by an Iskander in the Odesa area ports. This ship has been running laps in and out of the Odesa ports to other Black Sea region ports for at least two months. She frequents Ukraine at least once a week and usually more often.
DASHAN transited the Bosphorus Strait on December 9th. She is a stateless ship which means she has no active insurance and Türkiye should have never allowed her to transit the strait.
End of an era with the last ship delivery of this tracking project. Of course, other work remains.
@exit266 and @CarolynJGThomas I really appreciate the chance to work on this with you
On 28Nov2025 @ServiceSsu and @UA_NAVY used upgraded Sea Baby USV’s to strike two Russian Shadow Fleet vessels in the Black Sea, KAIROS (IMO 9236004) and VIRAT (IMO 9832559).
https://t.co/huNNEDICbp
I have many thoughts which I will write up later but if you think this is a Ukrainian escalation, you missed Russia directly targeting a Ukrainian LPG ship at port causing the evacuation of towns in Romania.
🛑Today is the beginning of the end.🛑
It has been two years since the first ship AROYAT sailed through UkriCor into Chornomorsk. Since then we have tracked almost 5400 UkriCor ships and countless others to see if they were headed our way.
https://t.co/FKs6kCWMPy
The Black Sea is not operating as normal and we need action.
Today the Ukrainian Sea Port Authority warned of mine threats in the entrance to the port of Chornomorsk.
https://t.co/WYwxyIkj1W